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January 6-7 Storm Discussion: we’re due?


WxUSAF
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40 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Would hate to be a weenie living in NYC. Classic early season fall line setup for that area shaping up. No advisory or anything for NYC with a warning for 6-10” of snow 20+ miles NNW of the city. That cutoff can be pretty damn brutal.

Not sure anyone here cares about NYC, to be honest.

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47 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

60???? wtf

when was this LMAO

 

46 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

It did. At least mid 50’s

58" on 2 separate runs for the 1/22/2016 storm. First run was centered just east of Lancaster and the next run it was up near Allentown. We were having fun with that in our thread. 

That same storm, one of the NAM runs painted almost 5" of QPF over Carlisle. (They did end up with nearly 40" of snow)

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1 hour ago, snowfan said:

HRRR was no bueno for anyone east of Hagerstown. 
 

IMG_0970.png

This wasn’t subtle at all. Up your troll game. 

24 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

58" on 2 separate runs for the 1/22/2016 storm. First run was centered just east of Lancaster and the next run it was up near Allentown. We were having fun with that in our thread. 

That same storm, one of the NAM runs painted almost 5" of QPF over Carlisle. (They did end up with nearly 40" of snow)

Maybe it did that with 2016, but it did the same thing in 2021 with the Feb 1 storm. Like 24 hours out it had a run with 50” in MD north of DC. Next run was 55” near Lancaster. Next run Allentown. 

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EURO

IMG_2701.png

I know usually kuchera is overdone when there is no mixing. But in this case it does a much better job near the rain snow line by calculating the very low ratios in the barely snow or mix area. The 10-1 is way overdone along the transition area. 

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9 minutes ago, WeatherShak said:

27 degrees. Posted up halfway between Hagerstown and Cumberland at around 1500 feet.

f052a6182f776dc2456952dfcb34299d.jpg

I'm doing a quantum mechanics degree and I'm obsessed with the universe and all the physics involved.  None of that is important other than to say that's an awesome picture and the number of stars visible is exceptional.  Where'd that all come from?  The universe is a mind boggling thing.  Congrats on that awesome pic.  

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1 hour ago, snowfan said:

I’d argue that surface temps aren’t necessarily the biggest issue here for many. Especially N/W of the cities. Maybe that will end up not being the case, but every bit of guidance is showing a warm layer above the surface. 

This. Surface temps even at what's proj or lower isn't going to get it done unless somehow the air fryer at 850 from the east somehow shuts off ... 

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26.4/22
and saw an update to the warning timeline from 10am to 10pm changed to 7 am to 7pm

Looks like they tweaked it to between 7AM-10AM for arrival. Doesn’t look too far off from original timeline. At least IMBY


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I'm doing a quantum mechanics degree and I'm obsessed with the universe and all the physics involved.  None of that is important other than to say that's an awesome picture and the number of stars visible is exceptional.  Where'd that all come from?  The universe is a mind boggling thing.  Congrats on that awesome pic.  

It’s amazing, right?! 30 second exposure. You can see a galaxy near the end of the airplane light path. Cool degree btw! I used to work with some wicked smart people like you up at the Naval Observatory. Side note - foxhound is ready for snow and for the wood stove up to 550 degrees. a443705422b31379bf93b47c3d37b67b.jpg


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31 minutes ago, WeatherShak said:

27 degrees. Posted up halfway between Hagerstown and Cumberland at around 1500 feet.

f052a6182f776dc2456952dfcb34299d.jpg

You should see some of the latest pics off the Webb telescope. That, is getting me interested in the deep universe!

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