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January 6-7 Storm Discussion: we’re due?


WxUSAF
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2 minutes ago, MDphotog said:

Yeah, but look at the temps on the HRRR, I'm already lower than what it has for my location at midnight tonight.  It has some major catching up to do.

I’d argue that surface temps aren’t necessarily the biggest issue here for many. Especially N/W of the cities. Maybe that will end up not being the case, but every bit of guidance is showing a warm layer above the surface. 

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3 minutes ago, snowfan said:

I’d argue that surface temps aren’t necessarily the biggest issue here for many. Especially N/W of the cities. Maybe that will end up not being the case, but every bit of guidance is showing a warm layer above the surface. 

Totally agree, but the HRRR was doing something odd, up here in Hagerstown, where the 850 was still below freezing, but we have like 34 - 35 degrees at the surface at 10AM.  We shall see.  

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2 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

tell that to the RGEM /s

1704517200-TtUnG5W6Wlk.png

wait... are you telling me maybe we shouldn't trust it?

The reason those temps will be difficult is the clouds are here by 10-11pm and we won’t get the steady 1 degree per hour we did last night with clear skies thru dawn 

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40 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Would hate to be a weenie living in NYC. Classic early season fall line setup for that area shaping up. No advisory or anything for NYC with a warning for 6-10” of snow 20+ miles NNW of the city. That cutoff can be pretty damn brutal.

Not sure anyone here cares about NYC, to be honest.

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47 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

60???? wtf

when was this LMAO

 

46 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

It did. At least mid 50’s

58" on 2 separate runs for the 1/22/2016 storm. First run was centered just east of Lancaster and the next run it was up near Allentown. We were having fun with that in our thread. 

That same storm, one of the NAM runs painted almost 5" of QPF over Carlisle. (They did end up with nearly 40" of snow)

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