eddygeeme Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: I just think it drops lower before the clouds Yup sunset is in less than a hour, cold ground fresh cold air mass they should drop. The battle won't be the airmass we have but the low track which is why if your a winter weather lover you need it as cold as you can possibly get it and you want some cooperation with the low. That said there should be a good initial thump with the moisture available. The earlier it moves in the better. -Keep clear to partyly cloudy skies so temps drop like a rock after sunset. -Get clouds to roll in before sunrise -Pray for decent front end thump. Have seen situations where a decent surprising front end thump along with a slightly favorable LP track holds more places over to the wintry precip side longer before any changeover occurs. There have been worse set ups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, stormy said: I'm much warmer down here in Augusta at 40. Is that Augusta, Georgia? I hear they're a snow town now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, Warm Nose said: Got up to 43 here. Seems promising Really? I'm not sure it got that warm in Downtown D.C. today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hstorm Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Really? I'm not sure it got that warm in Downtown D.C. today Looks like IAD hit 43 as well. 42 here. Now at 40.3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eddygeeme Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 7 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: A lot of times the temp will creep back up slightly once the cloud deck moves in. The dews staying down are pretty key. This. Temps will drop but slow rise a cpl degrees. Which is why getting some good rational cooling effect tonight will be key I don't think you want to be at ex 34-35 at Sun rise means clouds rapidly move in and your low was around freezing. Even with a good front end in that scenario places will like have a quick initial burst of snow to sleet before changing over to rain. Get the temps as deep in the 20s and hope for favorable track conditions even if it's the slightest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 DCA stuck at 40 all afternoon. Guess NA101 is right. Maybe touched 41, dunno 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eddygeeme Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 8 minutes ago, Terpeast said: 18z 3k nam thermals colder between 11-16z tomorrow Every little bit helps. Likely picking up and modeling the current conditions we are seeing and discussing. Will be interesting to see if other models pick up. There will be some with the dreaded white rain but likely some surprises if the front end thump comes in heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 6 minutes ago, hstorm said: Looks like IAD hit 43 as well. 42 here. Now at 40.3 I'm at 37.8, and 10 minutes NW of the airport as the crow flies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 7 minutes ago, IronTy said: Is that Augusta, Georgia? I hear they're a snow town now. We used to be a snow town but Spruce and Snowshoe have gotten greedy in recent years since the Atlantic has divorced us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 7 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: Got up to 43 here. Seems promising The antecedent airmass is fine. The track sucks. You're going to be like 31/28 at onset. Your max temp today means nothing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 7 minutes ago, eddygeeme said: This. Temps will drop but slow rise a cpl degrees. Which is why getting some good rational cooling effect tonight will be key I don't think you want to be at ex 34-35 at Sun rise means clouds rapidly move in and your low was around freezing. Even with a good front end in that scenario places will like have a quick initial burst of snow to sleet before changing over to rain. Get the temps as deep in the 20s and hope for favorable track conditions even if it's the slightest. nobody is falling "deep in the 20s" in DC/Balt metro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 37/18. High of 38 today. Dew point has already started falling from a high of 21. RGEM is either the most consistent model of all time. Or it is going to go down in flames thinking it is. Feel pretty confident that my 3+ inch snowstorm drought will end tomorrow. And that is fine by me. Would I like to actually get 8? Of course. But I will enjoy whatever I get. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: nobody is falling "deep in the 20s" in DC/Balt metro. tell that to the RGEM /s wait... are you telling me maybe we shouldn't trust it? 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eddygeeme Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: nobody is falling "deep in the 20s" in DC/Balt metro. Correction meant fall as deep in the 20s as they can get. I'm in Germantown exit 16 literally 2-3 minutes from Clarksburg my forecast low is 26. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 High of 36.9. Currently 33.6/20.8 here in 21057 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katabatic Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Surprised by the high of 43.5 today. Currently 39.6 but a dry DP of only 7.6. That'll help big time come show time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I'm rooting for you Westerners! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Cold day here. High of 36 after a low of 22. Currently 31. Will be lucky to see a sleet pellet before the heavy rain. Strong southerly flow with a low tracking left of the coast and a retreating cold air mass is always a loser here. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Drove home from Deep Creek today and the temp didnt change much along the way, which is odd. 38 when i left, hit a max of 40 around Hagerstown and was 39 when i got home to Ellicott City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katabatic Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, mdhokie said: Drove home from Deep Creek today and the temp didnt change much along the way, which is odd. 38 when i left, hit a max of 40 around Hagerstown and was 39 when i got home to Ellicott City. You went the wrong way lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 39.9 out. Just want to see a few flakes for the sake of my three year old (who will jump up and down and say "snowy day"). 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, mdhokie said: Drove home from Deep Creek today and the temp didnt change much along the way, which is odd. 38 when i left, hit a max of 40 around Hagerstown and was 39 when i got home to Ellicott City. You done drove in the wrong direction. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 CAD and WAA precip are the 2 things that will overperform for us. This isn’t a CAD situation but we can hope that we get a good thump for a few hours tomorrow. That’s the most reasonable “boom” scenario for the metro corridor (and maybe even N/W areas). A few hours of light precip won’t cut it. Fingers crossed! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: CAD and WAA precip are the 2 things that will overperform for us. This isn’t a CAD situation but we can hope that we get a good thump for a few hours tomorrow. That’s the most reasonable “boom” scenario for the metro corridor (and maybe even N/W areas). A few hours of light precip won’t cut it. Fingers crossed! That's why i shared this GIF in our PA thread, trend to boost QPF is absolutely what we want & need to see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I’m gonna start wishing for things at my pay grade. Looking for a T. And this time I’ll get it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 16 minutes ago, CAPE said: Cold day here. High of 36 after a low of 22. Currently 31. Will be lucky to see a sleet pellet before the heavy rain. Strong southerly flow with a low tracking left of the coast and a retreating cold air mass is always a loser here. The cold HP has dived southeast and offshore of Virginia, setting up this southerly flow. That would have killed our chances in 1964 or 2024. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDphotog Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Already dropped to 31.6 here from a high of 38.5. Good start for the overnight. Still plenty of clear skies so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 hours ago, WEATHER53 said: At 1pm DCA has risen from 27F to 39F but dew point just from 16 to 19. That’s 4-1 which won’t hold at onset of steady but assures at least a 50/50 meeting between dews and air temp. Here’s how I see things for DCA so it would be better just 20 miles further north and west Friday 5pm. Clear 40 Friday 8pm Mostly clear 34 10pm increasing clouds 32/dew point 22 1am Cloudy 29/ 23 Temps steady thereafter 9am cloudy 35/25 10am steady light to moderate snow, 31/29 Actual at 5pm is 38 vs predicted 40 A good sign also is that most stations dropped 2/3F between 4 to 5pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Pixee Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 As of now 38/26D Crystal clear skies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 11 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: That's why i shared this GIF in our PA thread, trend to boost QPF is absolutely what we want & need to see. All you have to do is look at the radar on the gulf coast and you can see why the models have upped the QPF. It is juicy down there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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