January 6-7 Storm Discussion: we’re due?

[WVclimo]

Point & Click forecast for my yard raised accumulations to 3-7” for the daytime tomorrow with another 1” in the evening.

WSW update though says 2-5” with up to 1/4” of ice.

 

[aldie 22]

1 hour ago, jayyy said:

Definitely some surprise snows happening to our SW. Forecasts for mix / rain actually ended up being a few inches of snow in Arkansas and surrounding areas. Perhaps a sign of things to come? Perhaps not. This one’s going to be very interesting to track in real time. Next 12-18 hours should be pretty telling. Hoping for a solid 3-5 hour window of thumpage.

Pretty decent gulf interaction occurring down south right now. Pretty safe to say this storm will have a respectable amount of moisture to work with.


.

I'm guessing the Atlantic ocean is too far away from Arkansas to have any effect

[hstorm]

12 minutes ago, mattie g said:

If this storm had happened 50 years ago, northern Louisiana would be getting pasted. Let THAT sink in.

Only need to go back 20 years: https://www.magnoliareporter.com/news_and_business/regional_news/article_2bc7cc1c-2b70-11e1-a4d1-0019bb2963f4.html

Nice to see the WWA extended to cover us, though skeptical of the "light ice glaze" risk.

[MDSnowyWxTracker]

22 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

35/20. Forecast high of 42 is going to bust. Will be watching to see those temps crash tonight before the cloud cover moves in. 

Agree, I am just north of Frederick above Rt26, we were forecast to that temp as well.  We are sitting at 37 now, doubt I get much more than 38. This morning low temps were off by 3degrees(forecasted 22, actual 19). If those 3 degree temp differences hold through the night and morning. That front end thump of snow could be much more than advertised.

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, hstorm said:

Only need to go back 20 years: https://www.magnoliareporter.com/news_and_business/regional_news/article_2bc7cc1c-2b70-11e1-a4d1-0019bb2963f4.html

Nice to see the WWA extended to cover us, though skeptical of the "light ice glaze" risk.

I remember that game. I probably only watched it because of the snow.

[mappy]

24 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

Point & Click forecast for my yard raised accumulations to 3-7” for the daytime tomorrow with another 1” in the evening.

WSW update though says 2-5” with up to 1/4” of ice.

 

point and click isn't going to match warning wording. i think point and click is all computer derived, while warnings/watches, etc., are human derived. thus the discrepancies. 

[hstorm]

FWIW (likely not much), 18z HRRR appears to be a little colder both aloft and at the surface than 12z.

[SnowGolfBro]

We need the WAA snow to come in hot and heavy and early. I think that is our best chance at scoring 1-3 inches in and around the metros before the flip to 33 and rain 

[Ellinwood]

Final forecast. On the southeast side of the snow, I pulled each contour ever so slightly northwest (which I'm still pessimistic on and almost adjusted it further NW than I did). Biggest changes were on the western side of the Appalachians where I added more snow to eastern OH and western PA.

[87storms]

I need the 95 corridor to come through. If you guys are snowing to start, then it’s game on in Frederick.

[Miss Pixee]

The DMV is not impressed.

However, these maps will make great wallpaper for my guest room. 

[pazzo83]

2 minutes ago, 87storms said:

I need the 95 corridor to come through. If you guys are snowing to start, then it’s game on in Frederick.

we'll do our best - can't promise anything

[mappy]

3 minutes ago, Pixee said:

The DMV is not impressed.

However, these maps will make great wallpaper for my guest room. 

The Department of Motor Vehicles isn't impressed? 

[pazzo83]

Just now, mappy said:

The Department of Motor Vehicles isn't impressed? 

DC - MD - VA

[stormy]

Increasing threat of freezing rain adding another element to this system for west of the BR in the Central Valley.  2 inches of snow/sleet with up to .50" freezing rain.

[Miss Pixee]

6 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

DC - MD - VA

Yup. I thought the hipsters here knew that...

[mappy]

5 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

DC - MD - VA

Should be "the DMV AREA" and then it all makes sense  

[mappy]

7 minutes ago, Pixee said:

Yup. I thought the hipsters here knew that...

im too old to be a hipster lol

[eddygeeme]

2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The past 48 hours have done real work on ground temps. The 2 inch soil temp on our Clarksville mesonet site is down to 33 degrees. It was 40 a few days a go.

Something I've noticed IMBY in Germantown the ground is frozen solid. Every little bit helps. The main thing to watch is the overnight temps. Forecast is for mid 20s 26 here IMBY. I'm at 38/21 mostly clear skies with some high cirrus clouds. With sunset approaching in a cpl hours I like temps to drop quickly. It will all come down to how much temps can drop overnight and the front end thump.

[Miss Pixee]

I think one of the Mets here is familiar...

"Dmv" here is Department of Motor Vehicles

"The" DMV is DC/MD/VA

Whether its news, sports or politics, that's how we roll! 

That being said better luck next year Commanders.

Gooooo  Browns

 

[Terpeast]

Still clear skies over here. 39/22. If we can hold off the clouds until well after sunset, maybe we can enhance the in situ airmass

[Darkstorm]

Peaked @ 40/23 @ my PWS here in HGR.

[Interstate]

36.1/22.8 here in 20157

 

[Deck Pic]

2 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

There are lots of experience to be shared here. A few insist  that only a few should do that. 

I think any upside for me and you is in the order of 1-2" before mix/flip.  There are some signs of encouragement that maybe I can sneak in a 0.75".  But ultimately the guidance is a bit too overwhelming.   If I was further west toward Parr's Ridge, I'd probably be low key bullish that I might hit the upper range of the forecast.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

28 minutes ago, mappy said:

Should be "the DMV AREA" and then it all makes sense  

Both are S-L-O-W, regardless, if you want to get anywhere!! 

[Deck Pic]

7 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Still clear skies over here. 39/22. If we can hold off the clouds until well after sunset, maybe we can enhance the in situ airmass

I'd feel pretty good about this airmass if I lived in your backyard.  It's not some stale bootleg nonsense.  

[eddygeeme]

6 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Still clear skies over here. 39/22. If we can hold off the clouds until well after sunset, maybe we can enhance the in situ airmass

That's what I'm thinking it's about 90%  clear skies with only thin wispy high cirrus clouds. Ideal for some good radiational cooling with sunset approaching in a hour and change. I like the temperature set up along with the frozen ground. We've had far worse setups and have gotten accumulating snow ex the surprise 2 in a few weeks ago.

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Both are S-L-O-W, regardless, if you want to get anywhere!! 

[TSSN+]

It’s only 36 here with clear skies. Models only drop it here to 28 tonight. I don’t see how it doesn’t get colder. 

[jayyy]

I'm guessing the Atlantic ocean is too far away from Arkansas to have any effect

Yep. The gulf is awfully close though? Which is warm.
Moistures being fed into the system from there.