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January 6-7 Storm Discussion: we’re due?


WxUSAF
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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Good news is that this could easily bounce back the other way. If you look at H5, the northern stream has been shifting quite a bit. This isn’t the final solution.  But it highlights the sensitivities.

Absolutely. Just look at the last 4 runs of the GFS and the shifts that occurred wrt the NS energy I was referring too. No reason to think the final outcome is suddenly nailed now.

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2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Absolutely. Just look at the last 4 runs of the GFS and the shifts that occurred wrt the NS energy I was referring too. No reason to think the final outcome is suddenly nailed now.

In the h5 charts I posted earlier, there were huge 500 mile swings in the western trough behind this system's wave. There's no way that detail has been nailed down yet.

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Saw NWS Pittsburgh post this. Here's some NBM data that covers a good chunk of the subforum. For reference, 5" of snow in 12 hours is the warning criteria in these parts. If these numbers hold, it's quite possible we're looking at a decent advisory level event with a jackpot to a low level warning event for the NW suburbs.

 

 

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It's going to be a close call for northern areas. 6z Euro control and 12z Gfs  runs the rain/ snow line pretty darn close to the M/D line.
Doesn't mean it's correct but with the latest trends you may need to be in central PA to feel secure with this set up.

I don’t think it’s ultimately going to be that close of a call near the MD PA border once the dust settles - especially for places near 81 and 15. We’ve seen this song and dance before. Still thinking it’s 90%+ snow for those areas as things stand right now. If the low tracks as depicted by the GEFS, I feel pretty confident in seeing at least a low level warning level snowfall for my area, PSUs area and clskins area. The area that’s most unknown is 95 and the immediate DC / BAL metro. Gotta think Baltimore will fair better than DC in this setup. So long as the primary doesn’t trend stronger / hold on longer, I feel pretty confident in the above scenario.

Going to be very interesting once we get into meso / short term model range (nest, NAM, etc) Globals tend to paint a broader brush as far as thermals are concerned and overlook some of the dynamics driving where the R/S line ultimately sets up.

Think one thing is pretty certain here… the gradient is going to be awfully sharp between areas that stay primarily snow just west of the fall line versus areas just east of it. 6-8” versus 1-3” within the span of 20 or so miles is looking pretty likely here. Question remains: where?


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7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Saw NWS Pittsburgh post this. Here's some NBM data that covers a good chunk of the subforum. For reference, 5" of snow in 12 hours is the warning criteria in these parts. If these numbers hold, it's quite possible we're looking at a decent advisory level event with a jackpot to a low level warning event for the NW suburbs.

 

 

https://sites.gsl.noaa.gov/desi/?chart=x4d&lat=40&lon=-105&theme=dark&dset=NBM4.1-CONUS&clusHghlgt=true&x4dGrid={"HREF"%3A{"url"%3A[40.5%2C-100%2C388%2C270]}%2C"NBM4.1"%3A{"url"%3A[39.096%2C-76.637%2C"450"%2C"315"]}}
site to this if anyone wants it btw, chance of 5" below(WSW criteria)

image.thumb.png.fa32e607ab458fe062f17965415ca053.png

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11 minutes ago, jayyy said:


I don’t think it’s ultimately going to be that close of a call near the MD PA border once the dust settles - especially for places near 81 and 15. We’ve seen this song and dance before. Still thinking it’s 90%+ snow for those areas as things stand right now. If the low tracks as depicted by the GEFS, I feel pretty confident in seeing at least a low level warning level snowfall for my area, PSUs area and clskins area. The area that’s most unknown is 95 and the immediate DC / BAL metro. Gotta think Baltimore will fair better than DC in this setup. So long as the primary doesn’t trend stronger / hold on longer, I feel pretty confident in the above scenario.

Going to be very interesting once we get into meso / short term model range (nest, NAM, etc) Globals tend to paint a broader brush as far as thermals are concerned and overlook some of the dynamics driving where the R/S line ultimately sets up.

Think one thing is pretty certain here… the gradient is going to be awfully sharp between areas that stay primarily snow just west of the fall line versus areas just east of it. 6-8” versus 1-3” within the span of 20 or so miles is looking pretty likely here. Question remains: where?


.

You certainly could be right. We can't afford anymore north adjustments 

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I don’t think it’s ultimately going to be that close of a call near the MD PA border once the dust settles - especially for places near 81 and 15. We’ve seen this song and dance before. Still thinking it’s 90%+ snow for those areas as things stand right now. If the low tracks as depicted by the GEFS, I feel pretty confident in seeing at least a low level warning level snowfall for my area, PSUs area and clskins area. The area that’s most unknown is 95 and the immediate DC / BAL metro. Gotta think Baltimore will fair better than DC in this setup. So long as the primary doesn’t trend stronger / hold on longer, I feel pretty confident in the above scenario.

Going to be very interesting once we get into meso / short term model range (nest, NAM, etc) Globals tend to paint a broader brush as far as thermals are concerned and overlook some of the dynamics driving where the R/S line ultimately sets up.

Think one thing is pretty certain here… the gradient is going to be awfully sharp between areas that stay primarily snow just west of the fall line versus areas just east of it. 6-8” versus 1-3” within the span of 20 or so miles is looking pretty likely here. Question remains: where?


.

What I don’t want is to see this start as mix/rain along 95. I think that could indicate temp issues upstairs even for places further to the nw.
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You certainly could be right. We can't afford anymore north adjustments 

Agreed. Hoping to see the “bleeding” stop, if you can call it that. I still think this is still typical noise at range but who knows for sure. If 18z and 00z look the same or slightly improved I’d feel better about that.


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The Wed 12 noon run will be the clincher as to 90% probability of verification from that point forward. 
incidental timings look favorable with clear skies Friday night into the early morning hours with good radiation and then becoming cloudy between 6-9am which mutes daytime warming and onset between noon-3pm.  In that set up I’m thinking 37/38 for a high between 12-1 but with dews in low 20’s once we get to a steady 0.5”ph rate the temp will drop to 32/33 by 4/5pm 

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its just the new vort in the SW/Central US that digs and fucks up everything, not only induces height rises and make the low go north but also flattens out the storm and makes it weak, not as simple as "NW of low snows" anymore sadly

good news is this energy is over the aleutians rn, i would give it some time before canceling this but trends are unfavorable rn ill admit

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All things being equal, the surface low track is MORE canonical for DC-Baltimore snowstorms than 0z. Low goes offshore near VA/NC border and then east of OCMD. But it’s become abundantly clear with the 12z suite that we want a stronger storm with more northern stream energy to keep the cold air in place.

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

All things being equal, the surface low track is MORE canonical for DC-Baltimore snowstorms than 0z. Low goes offshore near VA/NC border and then east of OCMD. But it’s become abundantly clear with the 12z suite that we want a stronger storm with more northern stream energy to keep the cold air in place.

I mentioned this earlier, but I wonder if there’s another path where this thing gets a little weaker with time and hence a farther south track. That could also keep our column colder. Right now may be a “worst of both worlds” scenario. Dunno, just speculating.

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Looks like I’m driving up Gambrill again to see snow lol.

What also kind of blows is we’ve trended now towards a much weaker wave. So even those who are in the all snow region aren’t looking at substantial substantial amounts. Yea 5-10” is nice, but models were throwing out 12” yesterday


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1 minute ago, Scraff said:

Damn. We no longer need a bandaid to stop the bleeding. Time for stitches. I still think this bounces the other way though.  How many times have we lost a storm just to see it bounce back. Let’s hope so anyway. I’ll hold off on my cliff diving trip until tomorrow. :lol:  

Still fully expecting a dead cat bounce tomorrow or Thursday and a NAM'ing some time on Friday.

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1 minute ago, Heisy said:


What also kind of blows is we’ve trended now towards a much weaker wave. So even those who are in the all snow region aren’t looking at substantial substantial amounts. Yea 5-10” is nice, but models were throwing out 12” yesterday


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Basically has become a 10-12 hour event.

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1 hour ago, jayyy said:


I don’t think it’s ultimately going to be that close of a call near the MD PA border once the dust settles - especially for places near 81 and 15. We’ve seen this song and dance before. Still thinking it’s 90%+ snow for those areas as things stand right now. If the low tracks as depicted by the GEFS, I feel pretty confident in seeing at least a low level warning level snowfall for my area, PSUs area and clskins area. The area that’s most unknown is 95 and the immediate DC / BAL metro. Gotta think Baltimore will fair better than DC in this setup. So long as the primary doesn’t trend stronger / hold on longer, I feel pretty confident in the above scenario.

Going to be very interesting once we get into meso / short term model range (nest, NAM, etc) Globals tend to paint a broader brush as far as thermals are concerned and overlook some of the dynamics driving where the R/S line ultimately sets up.

Think one thing is pretty certain here… the gradient is going to be awfully sharp between areas that stay primarily snow just west of the fall line versus areas just east of it. 6-8” versus 1-3” within the span of 20 or so miles is looking pretty likely here. Question remains: where?


.

We are not safe up here. This could easily become an interior and New England event.  We don’t have nearly the wiggle room we need.  I was hopeful when things were trending colder 24 hours ago but we needed that trend to continue. Yes it could reverse but the trend towards a less amped system is concerning. But it very well could continue. Look at the changes in just the last 24 hours. We could easily be mostly rain here too by the time it gets here. Not saying we will but I don’t feel safe in the least. Seen this setup way too many times. And so has everyone else. That’s why there are so many posts with declarative statements no one really means. To try to convince ourselves this time will be different lol. Eventually one will be different. But I never feel confident at this range no matter what unless everything is truly perfect. This setup isn’t. 

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4 minutes ago, Heisy said:


What also kind of blows is we’ve trended now towards a much weaker wave. So even those who are in the all snow region aren’t looking at substantial substantial amounts. Yea 5-10” is nice, but models were throwing out 12” yesterday


.

It’s now modeled to be moving a lot faster, also reducing QPF potential.  Barely an 8-10 hour storm now vs what was showing the past couple of days.

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