EstorilM Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Hmmm an inch of sleet for PW County/SW Loudoun. Not sure I buy that, but I suppose it’s more entertaining than rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY...* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations of a coating to an inch, and ice accumulations of a light glaze.* WHERE...Stafford, Eastern Loudoun and Northwest Prince William Counties.* WHEN...From 7 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday.* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Precipitation is expected to begin as snow and sleet between 7 and 10 AM. Precipitation will change to freezing rain between 10 AM and 1 PM, then rain after 1 PM. Precipitation is expected to end during the early evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 The killer for most of us is the roaring southerly winds at around 5000 ft. Here's a forecast sounding for DC at 19Z or 2 PM Note that where the warm layer is and has DC at around 4C. that's also where the winds are southerly at 50kts or stronger. 7 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: I didn't realize 3-6 inches was WSW criteria. I guess as long as it could exceed 5"+? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I didn't realize 3-6 inches was WSW criteria. I guess as long as it could exceed 5"+? Think that plus the chance of .25” ice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 4 minutes ago, Terpeast said: 0 line 850 keeps jumping around on the 3k That’s the issue with the NAMs. Thermals are jumping all over the place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 for nw of 95 in central md Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Still potential for some sleety/flakey start in the immediate metro area tomorrow morning, fingers crossed for a jebwalk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 56 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Depth of the airmass isn’t good enough. Yea we’re cold now because we’re directly under the axis of the northerly flow behind an amplifying wave. But at its zenith the cold barely gets south of us and isn’t expansive so as soon as the return southerly flow hits ahead of the next wave it’s easily scoured out. But hey we’re only 12 days after the long wave flow changed and the pac puke was cut off. . We need at least 3 weeks of a good long wave pattern to have any chance to be cold enough. Logically what you are saying makes sense, but we have seen torch to a foot of snow many times before. The writing is on the wall for this and sure its gonna be too warm. But to say we need 3 weeks of pattern change just to get a chance of snow makes me think it is almost impossible for the MA to get a snow storm. Maybe you are saying this just in the context of this set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umdterps29 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Heading out to McHenry tonight. Fingers crossed for a solid event out there. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 16 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: RRFS is our best bet... and that may be the first time it's been mentioned on this forum in relation to an event. I believe it's essentially the updated HRRR... so worse things to have on your side. It's at least a #sleetbomb as opposed to rain. Better than anything we had last year…I’ll take 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 14 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Winter storm warnings up. I was not expecting to get one. I'm not surprised you got one. It will take longer for Westminster to switch over, if at all, thus you stay snow longer, under heavy rates. Happy for you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I didn't realize 3-6 inches was WSW criteria. I guess as long as it could exceed 5"+? The potential is there for 5", hence the warning. Will it happen, who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Solution Man said: Better than anything we had last year…I’ll take So would I. This has morphed into a wintry mix event with that warm layer at 850mb. Let's hope the southerly winds are less strong than forecast so we could hold off the changeover. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, MDScienceTeacher said: Logically what you are saying makes sense, but we have seen torch to a foot of snow many times before. The writing is on the wall for this and sure its gonna be too warm. But to say we need 3 weeks of pattern change just to get a chance of snow makes me think it is almost impossible for the MA to get a snow storm. Maybe you are saying this just in the context of this set up. The pattern is missing key features that would generate a solid winter storm not just for the MA but for the Northeast as well. How many arctic intrusions with wind chill headlines and sub zero air masses over the northern Plains and Great Lakes this season. None. Very abnormal to see this over an extended period like we have. Bass boats were being launched on the lakes in Minnesota on 12/27, on a lake where cars normally drive on with thick ice. Something is amiss and yes it would take a larger scale phenomenon to get it to shift. No mechanisms in place to both drive arctic air in and keep it. Pattern is not amplified like needed. No blocking, no ridging out over the western U.S. we get cool passages with modified air. Not going to get it done. El Niño is only one factor. That just guarantees more southern stream energy, drought going away with ample moisture but it does NOT necessarily mean more snow. No cold air to produce. PSU is correct in his assessment. Going to take a more persistent change or else it’s more of the same. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 7 minutes ago, mappy said: I'm not surprised you got one. It will take longer for Westminster to switch over, if at all, thus you stay snow longer, under heavy rates. Happy for you! I mean mostly every model has me getting 2” or less. But guess we will see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 17 minutes ago, usedtobe said: The killer for most of us is the roaring southerly winds at around 5000 ft. Here's a forecast sounding for DC at 19Z or 2 PM Note that where the warm layer is and has DC at around 4C. that's also where the winds are southerly at 50kts or stronger. That’s the big shift on the NAMs. The low position is now drastically mor inland and north than it was at 0z. Hence more southerly wind vs southeast. It evidently is making a huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 This is yet another quick hitting cold snap. If it wasn't for this storm, we'd probably be heading into the 40s tomorrow. The h5 pattern is just too far north...really need a stout high to offset that. I certainly don't mind being in Frederick for this one, but it almost seems like Hagerstown is the spot to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 RGEM still hasnt budged. Slight tick north with the vort this run. Starts as snow into the cities and stays all snow west of the Blue Ridge. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, 87storms said: This is yet another quick hitting cold snap. If it wasn't for this storm, we'd probably be heading into the 40s tomorrow. The h5 pattern is just too far north...really need a stout high to offset that. I certainly don't mind being in Frederick for this one, but it almost seems like Hagerstown is the spot to be. Yeah but it hasn't been warm either. It has been just about average for the highs this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Mid to upper teens dew points generally don’t give that away in 24-30 hours. Very stout high of 30.40+ the same. If you watch the center it’s been moving toward a path right along VA/NC border. I think we are good for accumulating snow right around DC but 20 miles to east and south more problematic 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 10 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: RGEM still hasnt budged. Slight tick north with the vort this run. Starts as snow into the cities and stays all snow west of the Blue Ridge. It’s a lot drier tho… and likely more realistic than past runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 4 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Mid to upper teens dew points generally don’t give that away in 24-30 hours. Very stout high of 30.40+ the same. If you watch the center it’s been moving toward a path right along VA/NC border. I think we are good for accumulating snow right around DC but 20 miles to east and south more problematic Strong southeasterly winds off the deck coming off a mild Atlantic will erode that airmass quickly. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: Strong southeasterly winds off the deck coming off a mild Atlantic will erode that airmass quickly. Except further south on low and stronger high thwarts that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 4 minutes ago, Fozz said: It’s a lot drier tho… and likely more realistic than past runs. Its down about .2 in QPF for the event. Still basically an inch of QPF region wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 26 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: I mean mostly every model has me getting 2” or less. But guess we will see what happens. the further west you go the better the chances are, obviously. but if precip comes in hot and heavy enough you could put down a 3+ inches before any flip. its going to come down to real time observations, there are so many minute details that will make a big difference on who booms vs who busts. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 7 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Except further south on low and stronger high thwarts that We don’t have that pattern in place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 8 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Except further south on low and stronger high thwarts that the high is soo far north though 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, mappy said: the further west you go the better the chances are, obviously. but if precip comes in hot and heavy enough you could put down a 3+ inches before any flip. its going to come down to real time observations, there are so many minute details that will make a big difference on who booms vs who busts. yeah this is def gonna be a nowcast event, one small tick/shift colder/warmer is a huge difference esp for like NW moco/E loudoun 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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