Chris78 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 32 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z EURO is meh.... Where's the moisture? There's no thump for western areas. Hagerstown is down to .40 lol. If there was a heavy thump western areas would of been alot better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, Chris78 said: Where's the moisture? There's no thump for western areas. Hagerstown is down to .40 lol. If there was a heavy thump western areas would of been alot better. I think we all hope the euro is up to 2022-2024 euro things, and not pre 22 dr.no that was right a lot things. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Jets/Pats game looks fun for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darkstorm Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I think we all hope the euro is up to 2022-2024 euro things, and not pre 22 dr.no that was right a lot things.Or it’s better to use mesos. I don’t know we get what we get out here in NW section. Not worth hand wringing some are having. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, Interstate said: Jets/Pats game looks fun for Sunday. o/u 30.5…… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Actually the moisture on most of the models was pretty consistent with only slight drops. The stunning drops in snowfall output would be due to something the models are all of a sudden seeing regarding the thermals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Actually the moisture on most of the models was pretty consistent with only slight drops. The stunning drops in snowfall output would be due to something the models are all of a sudden seeing regarding the thermals. The 6z euro was pretty dry compared to other guidance and that was immediately following it juicing back up yesterday. we crushed 6z euros in the lead up this one, have gone 0/4 so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 13 minutes ago, Swiscaster said: o/u 30.5…… Under Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 WB 6Z EURO is meh....Seems like the pros are discounting the euro? Dont think they would have hoisted/expanded storm watches otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 From LWX Winter Storm Watches remain in effect along and west of US-15. Snow totals also increased a bit for the higher elevations of northern MD, particularly along Parr`s Ridge where the Winter Storm Watch was expanded into Northern Baltimore County. A decision on whether to upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning or Advisories will be made later this morning. Advisories are expected to be issued today for the tier of counties east of the current watches. Ice accretion amounts up to two tenths of an inch are possible in parts of the Central Shenandoah Valley into Central VA, including the Blue Ridge, with a trace up to a few hundredths of an inch of ice possible elsewhere in the Watch area. Snow/sleet amounts will vary, though looking at 4-6" along and northwest of a line from Spruce Knob to Winchester to Westminster. Between that line and US- 15 snow/sleet amounts could vary between 1-3". Between US-15 and I- 95 in Virginia, and east of Parr`s Ridge in Maryland snow/sleet amounts between a trace to a couple tenths of an inch. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, Terpeast said: From LWX Winter Storm Watches remain in effect along and west of US-15. Snow totals also increased a bit for the higher elevations of northern MD, particularly along Parr`s Ridge where the Winter Storm Watch was expanded into Northern Baltimore County. A decision on whether to upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning or Advisories will be made later this morning. Advisories are expected to be issued today for the tier of counties east of the current watches. Ice accretion amounts up to two tenths of an inch are possible in parts of the Central Shenandoah Valley into Central VA, including the Blue Ridge, with a trace up to a few hundredths of an inch of ice possible elsewhere in the Watch area. Snow/sleet amounts will vary, though looking at 4-6" along and northwest of a line from Spruce Knob to Winchester to Westminster. Between that line and US- 15 snow/sleet amounts could vary between 1-3". Between US-15 and I- 95 in Virginia, and east of Parr`s Ridge in Maryland snow/sleet amounts between a trace to a couple tenths of an inch. Reading between the lines, could be 0.5-2” just east of 15 but west of IAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Great post. Wake up and every model has jumped off a cliff In your defense I think in the past “give me the moisture with a decent track and it will work out” was a good rule where you are. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 why is 6z so much worse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just being outside this morning, it's hard to believe this is going to be mostly rain. Sad times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Just being outside this morning, it's hard to believe this is going to be mostly rain. Sad times. Depth of the airmass isn’t good enough. Yea we’re cold now because we’re directly under the axis of the northerly flow behind an amplifying wave. But at its zenith the cold barely gets south of us and isn’t expansive so as soon as the return southerly flow hits ahead of the next wave it’s easily scoured out. But hey we’re only 12 days after the long wave flow changed and the pac puke was cut off. . We need at least 3 weeks of a good long wave pattern to have any chance to be cold enough. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 My best hope now is that I get super cold tonight and before temps torch tomorrow the precip comes in as rain and there is a quick ice. I will go skating down my street and hit the melted part and face plant into the pavement. 1 8 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 hour ago, H2O said: They’ve sprayed roads here. Where every model shows MBY getting 0.5” I wanna talk with the dumbasses who decide these things. Its a sign of the times. 25 years ago we didn't engage in this lunacy. I know because I was in the business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Ice on the pond (first time so far). Does that count? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 4 minutes ago, J.Mike said: Ice on the pond (first time so far). Does that count? It counts. I have ice in the creek behind my house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3k looks sleety for a few hours before the flip to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Next ... 4 minutes ago, nj2va said: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 0 line 850 keeps jumping around on the 3k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 11 hours ago, MillvilleWx said: The reasoning for the shift in the colder solution on the NAM is the development of a closed 850mb low tracking south of the Potomac over north-central VA. Pay close attention to the wind barb across the northwest area and how the 850mb southeasterlies hit a brick wall over Parrs Ridge and the wind direction flips. This would allow for cold air to advect into the northern and western side of the circulation creating a more beneficial PBL and keep everything frozen, or even all snow. Check out the wind barbs to the east of RNK... As a result, watch the 850mb temp profile as we work through time. This is actually how you get surprises and periods of heavy snow when you weren't expecting. MAJOR CAVEAT.... THIS IS JUST ONE RUN OF ONE MODEL!!! We are going to want to see other guidance pull this off and have it become something to watch. This could be a one run and done deal, but there is potential for this. I will not be committing anything until I see some agreement from other guidance. It was interesting to see and point out as a possibility. It would affect the forecast in a big way. These are why these marginal events are so tricky. One thing can make or break a forecast. Let's hope it's right. Right now, no changes from my current thinking. I assume any hope of this basically evaporated last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I assume any hope of this basically evaporated last night Not even a model to hug 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodhokie Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 hour ago, nj2va said: Great use of tax dollars. Wouldn't be surprised if they didn't spray one snowfall a time ago and some person sued the DOT over an accident they had blaming they didn't treat roads to get out of paying for damages themselves and won. So now its spray all the time just to CYA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 4 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Not even a model to hug RRFS is our best bet... and that may be the first time it's been mentioned on this forum in relation to an event. I believe it's essentially the updated HRRR... so worse things to have on your side. It's at least a #sleetbomb as opposed to rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 NAM is holding steady with its rather quick change to ice. Snow amounts cut back all the way up into southcentral pa. That warm tongue around 850 is a PITA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Winter storm warnings up. I was not expecting to get one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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