psuhoffman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 hours ago, high risk said: That's fair. The depth field is underdone in events with warm ground going in, marginal temps, and good rates. But it's a strong alternative to 10:1 maps when you have a lot of sleet (or other mix) or poor rates with marginal temps. In events that argue for rates overcoming temps, a blend of the 10:1 and snow depth, with a solid lean towards the depth, often works well. That’s all our events lately 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 NAM actually caved to what the RGEM has been advertising for the past 3 days..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z 3K NAM Man I wish 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Imgoinhungry said: Hmm. Thats weak. A lot of ice in addition? . Yea def.. looked at pivotal .74 for ROA, .71 CHO area.. .30” plus Culpepper and up 81 Harrisonburg etc all smoked with ice totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Yea def.. looked at pivotal .74 for ROA, .71 CHO area.. .30” plus Culpepper and up 81 Harrisonburg etc all smoked with ice totals.Wow! How much for frederick? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: Yea def.. looked at pivotal .74 for ROA, .71 CHO area.. .30” plus Culpepper and up 81 Harrisonburg etc all smoked with ice totals. This isn’t an ice storm setup. It’s not like it’s in the teens leading up to this and it’s drizzling for hours. I’d cut those down significantly. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Imgoinhungry said: Wow! How much for frederick? . Verbatim NAM is a lot more snow up that way with only a glaze of ice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Cool. Now we need a real model to shift towards it. For Reisterstown 10:1 9” Kuchera 6.6” snow depth 1.6” good luck figuring that out 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z 3K NAM Bwahahahaha! You see that pink 10 inch lolli NW of Winchester? Thats where @EastCoast NPZ lived last year. You cant make this shit up. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, nj2va said: This isn’t an ice storm setup. It’s not like it’s in the teens leading up to this and it’s drizzling for hours. I’d cut those down significantly. Yea but even half is still not good at all. Normally we’re 60 the day before a freezing rain event. It’s been cold today and tomorrow leading into the event. I just feel like it will surprise some. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 This isn’t an ice storm setup. It’s not like it’s in the teens leading up to this and it’s drizzling for hours. I’d cut those down significantly. Agreed - it’s hovering above freezing. I thinkonce the 850s are shot, it’s plain rain. 3k does the @psuhoffman thing though around 5/6pm and almost pulls the RA/SN into the Belway again. 3k is the best run I’ve seen in the last day-ish that doesn’t involve fleeing westward to see flakes 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 16 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Winchester PUMMELLED and beat to death. Gotta ride that line. Looks like a comet ☄️ of snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3k precip type, take the freezing rain map with a grain of salt. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, nj2va said: 3k precip type, take the freezing rain map with a grain of salt. No plain rain here… I’m in 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 We have officially entered into the haulicination phase of model watching with the Nam the radar is next Wennie handbook rule #117. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Agreed - it’s hovering above freezing. I think once the 850s are shot, it’s plain rain. 3k does the @psuhoffman thing though around 5/6pm and almost pulls the RA/SN into the Belway again. 3k is the best run I’ve seen in the last day-ish that doesn’t involve fleeing westward to see flakes synoptically, 3k nam and nam had colder 850s leading into event as a result of the confluence being handled significantly differently this run at this lead time starting from only 18 hours out hopefully this is a trend and something we see on all guidance tonight! nam was pretty close for my liking tho honestly 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 3K surface temps about 35 when precip moves in around 12 noon then falls back to freezing in NW burbs. Heaviest snow between about 5-7 with these upper level temps. WB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: No plain rain here… I’m in It’s amazing what cancelling winter can do for you. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, AtlanticWx said: synoptically, 3k nam and nam had colder 850s leading into event as a result of the confluence being handled significantly differently this run at this lead time starting from only 18 hours out hopefully this is a trend and something we see on all guidance tonight! nam was pretty close for my liking tho honestly We're 48 hours from the event. Hope it's getting sampled better and we bust colder regionwide. Give everyone 3" - 5". 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 synoptically, 3k nam and nam had colder 850s leading into event as a result of the confluence being handled significantly differently this run at this lead time starting from only 18 hours out hopefully this is a trend and something we see on all guidance tonight! nam was pretty close for my liking tho honestlyToggling it back and forth — that is a pretty significant bulge downward. Thanks for pointing that out 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: We're 48 hours from the event. Hope it's getting sampled better and we bust colder regionwide. Give everyone 3" - 5". i do wonder if it got sampled, the confluence is over an area that isn't like data dead anymore regardless, hopefully we see these changes continue! wishing for a colder outcome for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 hour ago, Warm Nose said: Prob belongs in Banter, but I can suggest several spaces: NAMd Sun Angle Will I be OK to drive to [insert place] App Runner Outlier ... Toss [...] Pummeled! (will also accept Short Pump) Snow hole Fringed, tucked 53 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Winter Storm Watch extended to Carroll County. We had a chat, I let them know 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 The 3k Nam does the @psuhoffman way to victory and keeps the 850s considerably cooler during that critical 3 hour window, just a tick or two more and even the immediate suburbs would be on the snowy side. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 The NAM 10:1 maps look huge even along the I-95 corridor, because even after the precip type maps show rain, the model microphysics are generating sleet which is going into the snow water equivalent tally.. Here is a sounding from the "rain" area: That's heavy sleet. Not saying that the thermal profile will be correct, but it explains the generous 10:1 totals. 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 So if the NAM fails they should put it out of its misery and retire it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: The 3k Nam does the @psuhoffman way to victory and keeps the 850s considerably cooler during that critical 3 hour window, just a tick or two more and even the immediate suburbs would be on the snowy side. That’s a really cool map. You can see the wind barbs feel the effect of the northerly component to the cad. What I would give to have some of the air with the dews up north of VT/NH/ME 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 6 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: i do wonder if it got sampled, the confluence is over an area that isn't like data dead anymore regardless, hopefully we see these changes continue! wishing for a colder outcome for everyone RAOB data is only incorporated into 00z/12z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, high risk said: The NAM 10:1 maps look huge even along the I-95 corridor, because even after the precip type maps show rain, the model microphysics are generating sleet which is going into the snow water equivalent tally.. Here is a sounding from the "rain" area: That's heavy sleet. Not saying that the thermal profile will be correct, but it explains the generous 10:1 totals. I think most east of the fall line would take sleet on snow over rain though. NAM is most likely full of crap. But that is probably an acceptable outcome for most. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: RAOB data is only incorporated into 00z/12z. isn't it 00z though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 The reasoning for the shift in the colder solution on the NAM is the development of a closed 850mb low tracking south of the Potomac over north-central VA. Pay close attention to the wind barb across the northwest area and how the 850mb southeasterlies hit a brick wall over Parrs Ridge and the wind direction flips. This would allow for cold air to advect into the northern and western side of the circulation creating a more beneficial PBL and keep everything frozen, or even all snow. Check out the wind barbs to the east of RNK... As a result, watch the 850mb temp profile as we work through time. This is actually how you get surprises and periods of heavy snow when you weren't expecting. MAJOR CAVEAT.... THIS IS JUST ONE RUN OF ONE MODEL!!! We are going to want to see other guidance pull this off and have it become something to watch. This could be a one run and done deal, but there is potential for this. I will not be committing anything until I see some agreement from other guidance. It was interesting to see and point out as a possibility. It would affect the forecast in a big way. These are why these marginal events are so tricky. One thing can make or break a forecast. Let's hope it's right. Right now, no changes from my current thinking. 18 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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