rjvanals Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I AM GOING TO BE POSITIVE HERE So don't miss it, and snow god's don't make me regret it Something to keep an eye on... I wouldn't expect this per say, but if we are trying to be optimistic I see one thing today that leaves the door open somewhat for a better result NW of 95 here. I am using the 3k NAM but I've noticed the same general trend in the euro its just a couple degrees warmer so not quite as close but going the same way There has been a trend on the euro and NAM to weaken that inverted trough or trowal feature and allowing the developing coastal to develop a more closed circulation sooner. This cools the column some compared to earlier runs. If you look close you can see that in the height fields here The result is the column was VERY close to support snow during the most critical 3 hour period from 95 NW. This was the 12z run... That isn't really close in the yellow area. Looking at soundings it was a pretty thick area of close to 2C above freezing in the mid levels. But look at 18z same time It's REALLY close to supporting snow. I looked at soundings, 850 is about the warmest layer and its barely above freezing in this region. One more move the same as this and it would be snow in this area. I didn't cherry pick this hour...it might even be colder the hour before and after if you look. Before After But this is in the middle of a 3 hour period where this area gets .3-.5 qpf. If it were to be 1 degree colder that would mean a 3-4" thump in this area. It's possible, not likely but possible, that if this were to be just 1 degree colder than guidance thinks...suddenly if flips the other way in this area. The 18z Euro tries to do this at hr 54 but has a tiny warm layer just above 850 that screws it up 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 WB 18Z EURO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 WB 18Z EUROsnow depth change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z EURO Increase of 2” for Westminster. Nice. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 8 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z EURO Do you have qpf totals at that same time? Thats a big jump here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Afternoon update from LWX bumped up HGR and MRB to 5-8” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 15 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: snow depth change . I particularly love that little curve back in Loudoun to include my house into the blues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 5 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 4 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: I particularly love that little curve back in Loudoun to include my house into the blues And if this is the snow depth, I’ll take that 2”. Its enough to cover the ground and build a snowman with my daughter. Then when it flips, we go back inside and have a hot chocolate 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, Terpeast said: And if this is the snow depth, I’ll take that 2”. Its enough to cover the ground and build a snowman with my daughter. Then when it flips, we go back inside and have a hot chocolate Sounds perfect 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Decent uptick on the SREF plumes 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 7 minutes ago, Terpeast said: And if this is the snow depth, I’ll take that 2”. Its enough to cover the ground and build a snowman with my daughter. Then when it flips, we go back inside and have a hot chocolate Here I will enjoy my 0.2" of snow even though I am further north than you and clear the drains and make sure the sump pump is ready for 2-4" of rain next week. Then I will come in and enjoy iced tea with my son and daughter as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, Ravens94 said: Decent uptick on the SREF plumes They are still a thing huh lol! The 0z NAM should go BOOM! 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Ravens94 said: Decent uptick on the SREF plumes 0z NAM must be an improvement. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 6 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: Decent uptick on the SREF plumes What spot is this on the bingo card? 2 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 9 minutes ago, Interstate said: What spot is this on the bingo card? Now I want someone to make a bingo card lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 hours ago, nj2va said: MLK 2022 was a top 5 favorite storm for me - the upslope was epic for ‘part 2’ of that. Blizzard conditions at times. IIRC, you were staying in Accident or close by and chased that event right? The 500 energy that enhanced the upslope was textbook. This is definitely not that, ha. That storm was incredible, especially the upslope. I stayed in Accident and drove all the way to Timberline in some of the wildest blizzard conditions I’ve ever seen, and the skiing conditions felt so much like classic Northern New England. I think the final total was ~18”. I’d love for a repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Agree. Time to post a Bingo card. Who has one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChillinIt Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 57 minutes ago, WVclimo said: Afternoon update from LWX bumped up HGR and MRB to 5-8” What is going on in Orange, VA? Why can't Cville get the peninsula of hope? 18z 3k NAM has this area under moderate/heavy sleet for 7-8 hrs Saturday.. I hope that's wrong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 38 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: Here I will enjoy my 0.2" of snow even though I am further north than you and clear the drains and make sure the sump pump is ready for 2-4" of rain next week. Then I will come in and enjoy iced tea with my son and daughter as well. I'm going to walk around in the rain, then come inside and drink grape kool-aid and smoke homegrown. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 4 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: temps marginal and precip isn't super light... color me a bit skeptical as someone who lived in cville for 4 years and saw sig ice once despite it being modeled probably 3-4x a year. Now on the Blue Ridge itself... yeah. This seems like the kind of storm that closes the Parkway for 3 weeks... especially when you factor in a follow up next tues yeah living in that area for years, i am doubting the ice forecast - this isn't the right set up for it. Up in the mountains a different story like you say. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Well DCA is positioned to get below freezing overnight for the first time in more than 2 weeks, so that has to be a good sign right? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 7 minutes ago, Clueless said: Agree. Time to post a Bingo card. Who has one? Prob belongs in Banter, but I can suggest several spaces: NAMd Sun Angle Will I be OK to drive to [insert place] App Runner Outlier ... Toss [...] Pummeled! (will also accept Short Pump) Snow hole 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 6 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: Prob belongs in Banter, but I can suggest several spaces: NAMd Sun Angle Will I be OK to drive to [insert place] App Runner Outlier ... Toss [...] Pummeled! (will also accept Short Pump) Snow hole BINGO !!!!!!!! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 10 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: Well DCA is positioned to get below freezing overnight for the first time in more than 2 weeks, so that has to be a good sign right? That’s because DCA is a joke of a recording site. I’m like a mile from there and local PWS in our neighborhood have gotten below freezing 6 times in two weeks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Winter Storm Watch extended to Carroll County. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 43 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Now I want someone to make a bingo card lol On 1/2/2024 at 10:07 AM, H2O said: 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Winter Storm Watch extended to Carroll County. And west to Garrett County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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