WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: Doesn’t look that great to me. I’ll take any model but the euro Look harder. The more precip we can get in here the better off we are gonna be. This was a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Euro is better, closer to the GGM and UKIE More precip, little stronger, closer Great track too if that matters at this point.. MYR to right around VA Beach. Can’t ask for better track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 That 2nd piece of energy (which also helped to ‘ruin’ our threat) keeps getting stronger which I think is one of the reasons why this has trended towards a big event in SNE. Too bad we couldn’t have tapped into that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 Saw a couple flurries in Alexandria. Using this as an unscientific data point to explain why we still have a 1 in a million chance on Saturday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 So with the 6 hour wobbles and melancholy I am still at the same place I was Monday but now up to 85% probability of an area wide 3-6” from Camp Springs to Frederick I put out my checklist yesterday and will run that down item by item either late tonight or early Friday afternoon Moving from models to temps and dew points is a stable idea from now and forward . Looks like T minus 46 hours to liftoff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 26 minutes ago, nj2va said: 12z Euro Well that sucks lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 25 minutes ago, nj2va said: 12z Euro It’s a good thing the Euro was dethroned a few years ago by King GooFuS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 1 minute ago, winter_warlock said: Well that sucks lol The fun part is that it keeps trending worse. Best chance at this point is that either (a) the bleeding stops, and/or (2) cad is underdone. The upper air pattern is not ideal. Honestly, looking at it, I wouldn't even think we'd get snow from it, but luckily we have at least some residual cold air to work with. It'll be interesting to see how the storm ultimately plays out, but I'd be ok with it just simply starting as snow at this point east of the Blue Ridge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 maybe someday we can get a perfect track…well ok but it’s a Nina we can’t expect…umm never mind. 7 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: maybe someday we can get a perfect track…well ok but it’s a Nina we can’t expect…umm never mind. If only we had that track in Jan/Feb… 8 9 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 43 minutes ago, nj2va said: 12z Euro Looks promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 Just now, MN Transplant said: If only we had that track in Jan/Feb… If only there weren't a Low in the Lakes. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: maybe someday we can get a perfect track…well ok but it’s a Nina we can’t expect…umm never mind. Why is it the surface low is ideal, but the mid-levels are a mess? I don't feel like this is just a "it's just not cold enough" situation. To me, it seems like we just simply lack blocking due to a consistently messy Pacific and/or Atlantic...flip a coin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: If only we had that track in Jan/Feb… Backloaded winter...March is gonna be epic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 Just now, 87storms said: Why is it the surface low is ideal, but the mid-levels are a mess? I don't feel like this is just a "it's just not cold enough" situation. To me, it seems like we just simply lack blocking due to a consistently messy Pacific and/or Atlantic...flip a coin. Both sides of the same coin. No blocking and too fast pacific 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 Where is our nice package right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 Todays has been at worst a hold the line day. Actually I think we’ve seen some positives. Perhaps this trends our way as we move forward 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Todays has been at worst a hold the line day. Actually I think we’ve seen some positives. Perhaps this trends our way as we move forward Other than the euro, the bleeding has stopped. For now… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 Just now, Terpeast said: Other than the euro, the bleeding has stopped. For now… The euro got better. Everyone’s individual backyard snow map may not have but by increasing the precip and coverage, I think it upped our chances. The 850’s don’t really jump for most. So heavier precip, the low fees to start and the cold to start combined with heavy precip might just do the trick. Fingers crossed 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The euro got better. Everyone’s individual backyard snow map may not have but by increasing the precip and coverage, I think it upped our chances. The 850’s don’t really jump for most. So heavier precip, the low fees to start and the cold to start combined with heavy precip might just do the trick. Fingers crossed Just checked, its a smidge better. Probably noise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The euro got better. Everyone’s individual backyard snow map may not have but by increasing the precip and coverage, I think it upped our chances. The 850’s don’t really jump for most. So heavier precip, the low fees to start and the cold to start combined with heavy precip might just do the trick. Fingers crossed Beet juice already down on 66 near centreville... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 Just now, Solution Man said: Beet juice already down on 66 near centreville... They have to get it down fast... They need to make their quota... if they waited another day, they wouldn't be able to spray it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: maybe someday we can get a perfect track…well ok but it’s a Nina we can’t expect…umm never mind. But it's cold enough close enough, what else other than the boogie man is causing this to not be an all snow event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 12 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Todays has been at worst a hold the line day. Actually I think we’ve seen some positives. Perhaps this trends our way as we move forward I do think perhaps we've reached the end of how bad this can degrade. The track isn't actually trending at all...its just the mid level thermals are trending warmer. There is likely a limit to how far NW of the low the mid level warm layer can get and I think we are close to that now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 3 minutes ago, Interstate said: They have to get it down fast... They need to make their quota... if they waited another day, they wouldn't be able to spray it. Ok makes perfect sense. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 1 minute ago, aldie 22 said: But it's cold enough close enough, what else other than the boogie man is causing this to not be an all snow event? Not really! Look at our big storms and check the temperature of cities north and west of us. Saturday morning is barely below freezing in Chicago Detroit buffalo and saranac lake. It’s just not cold enough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 17 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Where is our nice package right now? @stormtracker 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Transplant Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 Just got the text message for Winter Storm Watch - we shall see... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 1 minute ago, Buffalo Transplant said: Just got the text message for Winter Storm Watch - we shall see... Where? Never mind I looked up your profile info....Boyce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 Check LWX. Hoisted watch for west of 15 I’m just a few miles east. Likely going to get an advisory closer in 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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