NorthArlington101 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: 3k Temps and Dews just before precip starts. I think its going to be close for the metros. But I think it would start as snow there as well. yeah 3k is cautiously optimistic for a few hours of snow. And frankly, it's on the razor's edge for the hours afterwards. rates would do a lot -- plus a rare positive trend. We've still got ~2 days to cut temps by 1-3 degrees. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Really stinks for Virginia ski resorts if they can't get a nice clean snow to drizzle event. 4 minutes ago, Ellinwood said: Been awhile... I could see some "boom" areas in the far NW burbs of the I-95 corridor if there's heavy rates late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening, otherwise I'm more pessimistic than optimistic. Lines up fairly well with the NWS at least from Philly southward. Seems reasonable. Not your focus, but the euro (and to a lesser extent, GFS) had some interaction with that trailing low that provided some hope for NYC/Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: For this storm, that is a NAMming around DC. I like how the model R/S line stalls a bit at 18-19z before completely blowing past us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EstorilM Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 5 minutes ago, mappy said: Sounding IMBY per NAM (looking at 3k and 12k) and I hover right at 31/32 the entire time. If it's dumping precip, it should be snow. A sneaky warm nose pops up around hr66 but precip is moving out by then. Can’t see where you are on my phone, but 850s look good for most of the region. Surface temps are definitely struggling now though, with just about the worst timing possible (that’s a big part of what killed us, this was initially going to be an all-overnight Sat storm.) But yeah, if the rates get up there something should stick… LWX seems to think most of this will transition to rain, which I don’t really agree with given most of the 850s in the area. It’s starting to sound like one of those messes that just goes back and forth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: yeah 3k is cautiously optimistic for a few hours of snow. And frankly, it's on the razor's edge for the hours afterwards. rates would do a lot -- plus a rare positive trend. We've still got ~2 days to cut temps by 1-3 degrees. The real issue with this event has been that since 6z yesterday we’ve seen every cycle wobble just a little warmer. If we can just reverse that trend there’s still some potential … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EstorilM Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, paulythegun said: Really stinks for Virginia ski resorts if they can't get a nice clean snow to drizzle event. Seems reasonable. Not your focus, but the euro (and to a lesser extent, GFS) had some interaction with that trailing low that provided some hope for NYC/Boston. Most around here and WV haven’t had good snow since Covid, I can’t comprehend how any are still in business - though I guess Timberline was sold and re-structured, but wow.. bad timing for the new guys. I miss going out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: How confident are you? That we see snow? Very. That we get 8+? Not at all. The 3k manages to hold on to the column through the entire event out here. It is close at 20z. But that is a solid thumping going on at that time. My wag is a 4-6 event with some 8 inch lollis out on the ridges. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: The real issue with this event has been that since 6z yesterday we’ve seen every cycle wobble just a little warmer. If we can just reverse that trend there’s still some potential … The surface has been holding pretty steady but the 850 level in particular has been degrading across the past few model cycles to a razors edge at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, EstorilM said: Can’t see where you are on my phone, but 850s look good for most of the region. Surface temps are definitely struggling now though, with just about the worst timing possible (that’s a big part of what killed us, this was initially going to be an all-overnight Sat storm.) But yeah, if the rates get up there something should stick… LWX seems to think most of this will transition to rain, which I don’t really agree with given most of the 850s in the area. It’s starting to sound like one of those messes that just goes back and forth. Oh sorry -- I'm in far northern Baltimore county, about 5 miles south of the PA line. Have some elevation too, which is helpful. 850s aren't too much of an issue, but the surface will be the issue. Could see it starting as snow for most (except Eastern Shore and far southern MD), but not accumulating where it's 33 or so at the surface. Places north and west will hang on to the cold a bit longer, and with heavy precip, it will snow even if it doesn't amount to much. It's most likely going to be a real-time event where every degree makes a difference on what is falling and what is accumulating. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EstorilM Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: The real issue with this event has been that since 6z yesterday we’ve seen every cycle wobble just a little warmer. If we can just reverse that trend there’s still some potential … Trend has been warmer, faster, lower QPF, and NW - granted some of those are directly related, but still kinda a sucker punch for most of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3k Temps and Dews just before precip starts. I think its going to be close for the metros. But I think it would start as snow there as well.The issue the last few days seems to be with the low level winds out of the south and east as that ridge slides off the coast. I think we’re gonna need cad to be under-modeled. Frederick still seems to be in the game, but closer to the fall line you’re really gonna need to fend off that easterly wind component. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Is it me or did nam come in a lil colder with a lil more front end snow this run compared to 6z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 12 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Shame. Looks like Augusta County got the shaft. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 I’m taking the TT 3k NAM 10:1 snowmap as my final call, no takebacks, all in. In reality, it does show about 4 hours of pretty heavy snow from 16-20z IMBY. If that did happen… 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3k sticks a 6 inch lollipop right over my place west of Owings Mills. I guess that 650 of elevation feet does wonders lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 At least it’s the 3k and not the 12k… Let’s see if we can get this thing trending a few degrees colder over the next 48 hours. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 12Z nam gives me 3-4", which I think is the boom scenario for mby. Bust would obviously be a mix to rain scenario. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 14 minutes ago, EstorilM said: Most around here and WV haven’t had good snow since Covid, I can’t comprehend how any are still in business - though I guess Timberline was sold and re-structured, but wow.. bad timing for the new guys. I miss going out there. What's your definition of good snow? While far below their average, Timberline still had almost 100" last year and have had several decent snowfalls so far this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Gotta love the RGEM. Bless its heart. Has it ever been right? 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I’m taking the TT 3k NAM 10:1 snowmap as my final call, no takebacks, all in. In reality, it does show about 4 hours of pretty heavy snow from 16-20z IMBY. If that did happen…18z and especially 00z gets the NAM within 48 hours, where it’s at least (somewhat?) useful. Then again, it’s being retired and hasn’t been updated in a while, so who knows. Hoping it scores a coup being a meso vs globals. Certainly have nothing to lose at this point. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Gotta love the RGEM. Bless its heart. Has it ever been right?Pics or it didn’t happen . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 32 minutes ago, Ellinwood said: Been awhile... I could see some "boom" areas in the far NW burbs of the I-95 corridor if there's heavy rates late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening, otherwise I'm more pessimistic than optimistic. Lines up fairly well with the NWS at least from Philly southward. Not even greyed this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 8 minutes ago, notvirga! said: 3k sticks a 6 inch lollipop right over my place west of Owings Mills. I guess that 650 of elevation feet does wonders lol That would be a great jackpot for my NWS COOP site in Reisterstown. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Gotta love the RGEM. Bless its heart. Has it ever been right? Right or wrong it refuses to budge. Sub 1000 over OC again. Been basically the same for days at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Right or wrong it refuses to budge. Sub 1000 over OC again. Been basically the same for days at this point. It’s been the same for you, for everyone else it’s trended slightly warmer run on run on run to the point of which is decidedly west of the first western counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: It’s been the same for you, for everyone else it’s trended slightly warmer run on run on run to the point of which is decidedly west of the first western counties. It hasnt altered its track for days. Thermals? Sure. But you would expect that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 7 minutes ago, jayyy said: Pics or it didn’t happen . 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 13 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Gotta love the RGEM. Bless its heart. Has it ever been right? It’s been the most stubborn model for days now. Hopefully it’s in the right ballpark, at least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
primetime Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 17 minutes ago, notvirga! said: 3k sticks a 6 inch lollipop right over my place west of Owings Mills. I guess that 650 of elevation feet does wonders lol Having lived in Owings Mills for 10 years, then moving to Hampstead that elevation change does make a big difference. From OM to Hampstead, it's only about 15-20 minutes north and west but the elevation climbs to 850'. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now