January 6-7 Storm Discussion: we’re due?

[EstorilM]

Sterling WFO seems to have thrown in the towel. Given that it’s Thursday, I don’t think you can say they “got it wrong” - but certainly a very different forecast than a few days ago. 
 

“….

P-type is likely to start as light
snow given temp profiles mostly below freezing, especially west of I-
95. However, most models have trended warmer in the low-levels east
of the Blue Ridge, especially with the 850mb being at or above
freezing east of US-15. As a result, a wintry mix is likely to
start, then quickly transition to a cold rain. The chance for any
accumulating snow just along/east of I-95 looks very low at this
time.” 

[Paleocene]

I am choosing to believe that this panel on the 3k nam is true. it holds for a few hours but 850s are warming (winds out of the south at that level)

verbatim on the NAM 3k, north of I-70 could hold as snow most of the afternoon? someone please correct me if I'm wrong

[Ellinwood]

Been awhile...

I could see some "boom" areas in the far NW burbs of the I-95 corridor if there's heavy rates late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening, otherwise I'm more pessimistic than optimistic. Lines up fairly well with the NWS at least from Philly southward.

 

[mappy]

Sounding IMBY per NAM (looking at 3k and 12k) and I hover right at 31/32 the entire time. If it's dumping precip, it should be snow. A sneaky warm nose pops up around hr66 but precip is moving out by then. 

[clskinsfan]

3k Temps and Dews just before precip starts. I think its going to be close for the metros. But I think it would start as snow there as well.

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

You will get snow. The dew points and temps out here heading in are good. It's not gonna be the foot+ that was being spit out by the models a couple of days ago. But it will snow out here. 

How confident are you?

[rjvanals]

12z 3k NAM looks pretty similar to the 12/16/20 storm with a heavy burst of snow initially across the metro area then watched the CC line move steadily NW; wasn't a bad storm here w around 3 inches and dumped ~6 inches in Frederick https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/12/17/snow-ice-dc-md-va/

[Ji]

NAM keeps leesburg alive

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

3k Temps and Dews just before precip starts. I think its going to be close for the metros. But I think it would start as snow there as well.

yeah 3k is cautiously optimistic for a few hours of snow. And frankly, it's on the razor's edge for the hours afterwards.

rates would do a lot -- plus a rare positive trend. We've still got ~2 days to cut temps by 1-3 degrees.

[paulythegun]

Really stinks for Virginia ski resorts if they can't get a nice clean snow to drizzle event. 

4 minutes ago, Ellinwood said:

Been awhile...

I could see some "boom" areas in the far NW burbs of the I-95 corridor if there's heavy rates late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening, otherwise I'm more pessimistic than optimistic. Lines up fairly well with the NWS at least from Philly southward.

 

Seems reasonable. Not your focus, but the euro (and to a lesser extent, GFS) had some interaction with that trailing low that provided some hope for NYC/Boston. 

[NorthArlington101]

[MN Transplant]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

For this storm, that is a NAMming around DC.  I like how the model R/S line stalls a bit at 18-19z before completely blowing past us.

[EstorilM]

5 minutes ago, mappy said:

Sounding IMBY per NAM (looking at 3k and 12k) and I hover right at 31/32 the entire time. If it's dumping precip, it should be snow. A sneaky warm nose pops up around hr66 but precip is moving out by then. 

Can’t see where you are on my phone, but 850s look good for most of the region.
 

Surface temps are definitely struggling now though, with just about the worst timing possible (that’s a big part of what killed us, this was initially going to be an all-overnight Sat storm.) 

But yeah, if the rates get up there something should stick… LWX seems to think most of this will transition to rain, which I don’t really agree with given most of the 850s in the area. 
 

It’s starting to sound like one of those messes that just goes back and forth. 

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

yeah 3k is cautiously optimistic for a few hours of snow. And frankly, it's on the razor's edge for the hours afterwards.

rates would do a lot -- plus a rare positive trend. We've still got ~2 days to cut temps by 1-3 degrees.

The real issue with this event has been that since 6z yesterday we’ve seen every cycle wobble just a little warmer. If we can just reverse that trend there’s still some potential … 

[EstorilM]

3 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

Really stinks for Virginia ski resorts if they can't get a nice clean snow to drizzle event. 

Seems reasonable. Not your focus, but the euro (and to a lesser extent, GFS) had some interaction with that trailing low that provided some hope for NYC/Boston. 

Most around here and WV haven’t had good snow since Covid, I can’t comprehend how any are still in business - though I guess Timberline was sold and re-structured, but wow.. bad timing for the new guys. I miss going out there. 

[clskinsfan]

3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

How confident are you?

That we see snow? Very. That we get 8+? Not at all. The 3k manages to hold on to the column through the entire event out here. It is close at 20z. But that is a solid thumping going on at that time. My wag is a 4-6 event with some 8 inch lollis out on the ridges.

 

[rjvanals]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

The real issue with this event has been that since 6z yesterday we’ve seen every cycle wobble just a little warmer. If we can just reverse that trend there’s still some potential … 

The surface has been holding pretty steady but the 850 level in particular has been degrading across the past few model cycles to a razors edge at this point 

[mappy]

1 minute ago, EstorilM said:

Can’t see where you are on my phone, but 850s look good for most of the region.
 

Surface temps are definitely struggling now though, with just about the worst timing possible (that’s a big part of what killed us, this was initially going to be an all-overnight Sat storm.) 

But yeah, if the rates get up there something should stick… LWX seems to think most of this will transition to rain, which I don’t really agree with given most of the 850s in the area. 
 

It’s starting to sound like one of those messes that just goes back and forth. 

Oh sorry -- I'm in far northern Baltimore county, about 5 miles south of the PA line. Have some elevation too, which is helpful.

850s aren't too much of an issue, but the surface will be the issue. Could see it starting as snow for most (except Eastern Shore and far southern MD), but not accumulating where it's 33 or so at the surface. Places north and west will hang on to the cold a bit longer, and with heavy precip, it will snow even if it doesn't amount to much. It's most likely going to be a real-time event where every degree makes a difference on what is falling and what is accumulating. 

[EstorilM]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

The real issue with this event has been that since 6z yesterday we’ve seen every cycle wobble just a little warmer. If we can just reverse that trend there’s still some potential … 

Trend has been warmer, faster, lower QPF, and NW - granted some of those are directly related, but still kinda a sucker punch for most of us. 

[87storms]

3k Temps and Dews just before precip starts. I think its going to be close for the metros. But I think it would start as snow there as well.

The issue the last few days seems to be with the low level winds out of the south and east as that ridge slides off the coast. I think we’re gonna need cad to be under-modeled. Frederick still seems to be in the game, but closer to the fall line you’re really gonna need to fend off that easterly wind component.

[winter_warlock]

Is it me or did nam come in a lil colder with a lil more front end snow this run compared to 6z?

[WinterWxLuvr]

12 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Shame. Looks like Augusta County got the shaft.

[WxUSAF]

I’m taking the TT 3k NAM 10:1 snowmap as my final call, no takebacks, all in. 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

In reality, it does show about 4 hours of pretty heavy snow from 16-20z IMBY. If that did happen…

[notvirga!]

3k sticks a 6 inch lollipop right over my place west of Owings Mills. I guess that 650 of elevation feet does wonders lol 

[jayyy]

At least it’s the 3k and not the 12k…

Let’s see if we can get this thing trending a few degrees colder over the next 48 hours.


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[Terpeast]

12Z nam gives me 3-4", which I think is the boom scenario for mby. Bust would obviously be a mix to rain scenario.

[WVsnowlover]

14 minutes ago, EstorilM said:

Most around here and WV haven’t had good snow since Covid, I can’t comprehend how any are still in business - though I guess Timberline was sold and re-structured, but wow.. bad timing for the new guys. I miss going out there. 

What's your definition of good snow? While far below their average, Timberline still had almost 100" last year and have had several decent snowfalls so far this winter.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Gotta love the RGEM. Bless its heart. Has it ever been right?

[jayyy]

I’m taking the TT 3k NAM 10:1 snowmap as my final call, no takebacks, all in. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
In reality, it does show about 4 hours of pretty heavy snow from 16-20z IMBY. If that did happen…

18z and especially 00z gets the NAM within 48 hours, where it’s at least (somewhat?) useful. Then again, it’s being retired and hasn’t been updated in a while, so who knows. Hoping it scores a coup being a meso vs globals. Certainly have nothing to lose at this point.


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[jayyy]

Gotta love the RGEM. Bless its heart. Has it ever been right?

Pics or it didn’t happen


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