DarkSharkWX Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: The eps has been a false positive. At longer leads the ensemble will have a more expensive snow shield due to spread. As the lead shortens it will tighten up as variance decreases. You don’t want to be near the southern area of the snow ok an ensemble at 72+ hours. As the gradient tightens you’ll usually end up on the wrong side. true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: The eps has been a false positive. At longer leads the ensemble will have a more expensive snow shield due to spread. As the lead shortens it will tighten up as variance decreases. You don’t want to be near the southern area of the snow ok an ensemble at 72+ hours. As the gradient tightens you’ll usually end up on the wrong side. 18z definitely tightened up the goal posts. Are we at the end of the ensembles being useful for this event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 21 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: My wife and I were married at Stone Tower...beautiful spot To each other? If not that’s a story I need to hear!!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: 18z definitely tightened up the goal posts. Are we at the end of the ensembles being useful for this event? Getting there but in a case with divergent camps they can still be useful. It the op will be better at details and thermals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 7 minutes ago, Chris78 said: 18z definitely tightened up the goal posts. Are we at the end of the ensembles being useful for this event? Did by “tightening up” did you mean “move far away?” lol I’m down on this one, don’t think this is trending in the right direction. Surprise me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eddygeeme Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 This will come down to a game of watching temps Friday Night with lows in the mid to upper 20s with clear skies giving way to increasing clouds across much the forecast area sw to ne. Where temps drop enough before the cloud cover comes in will help greatly. Check your temps if you're low to mid 30s overnight Friday..... I'm expecting the typical slop across the area from heavy rain to heavy snow and everything in between. EDIT-High IMBY Saturday is 35 low 31 Saturday night. Temps running 2-3 degrees colder Friday night and holding thru Sat early afternoon changes a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, eddygeeme said: This will come down to a game of watching temps Friday Night with lows in the mid to upper 20s with clear skies giving way to increasing clouds across much the forecast area sw to ne. Where temps drop enough before the cloud cover comes in will help greatly. Check your temps if you're just at or above freezing late night Friday..... well so far DCA hasn't been below freezing since before Christmas, and even up here around 400 ft in Tenleytown we have just barely grazed the freezing point. Hopefully the air mass in place in a couple days can push the temps down a bit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 NAM at 57 looks pretty darn cold with cad far down into southern/southwestern NC and a good slug of freezing rain pushing through that area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, Buddy1987 said: NAM at 57 looks pretty darn cold with cad far down into southern/southwestern NC and a good slug of freezing rain pushing through that area. Yes, but... which is significantly warmer than 18Z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, StormyClearweather said: Yes, but... which is significantly warmer than 18Z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: Yes, but... which is significantly warmer than 18Z NAM. Column cools quicky though once precip starts, so ignore me. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Looking far better at good ole 69, FWIW 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Nam looks ok to me…. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Yeah, we take the 00z NAM all day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Yeah, we take the 00z NAM all dayOnly a three hour window of snow before a switch to rain? Unless im looking at the wrong run?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 R/S line literally on I-95 from just south of DC to Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Only a three hour window of snow before a switch to rain? Unless im looking at the wrong run?.I think nam is in catch up mode. It gave me .15 liquid at 12z lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 One thing is for sure… NAM has an actual system there, which is certainly better than 18z’s depiction of a non system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 NAM trying to bring some wrap around out this way too. Also a pretty strong ULL there as well. Interesting run. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 4 minutes ago, jayyy said: One thing is for sure… NAM has an actual system there, which is certainly better than 18z’s depiction of a non system . Quick, we need the Ralph Wiggum NAM GIF 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 5 minutes ago, jayyy said: One thing is for sure… NAM has an actual system there, which is certainly better than 18z’s depiction of a non system . Hopefully it is picking up on better thermals and the ops are right with the amplitude and track. At this range, both of these can be true 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 NAM moved towards phasing that trailing SW in. If that trend continues it’s not impossible to get a little snow Sunday if there is enough cold. Ya i know lol 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 NAM trying to bring some wrap around out this way too. Also a pretty strong ULL there as well. Interesting run. NAM thermals + euro track = yes please 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 RGEM 996 over OC this run. A touch warmer. But it basically hasnt flinched for multiple runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 There's an issue when the NAM is our best option ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 There's an issue when the NAM is our best option ...Gfs has been our best option. Until it caves to the euro in 40 minutes. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 RGEM 996 over OC this run. A touch warmer. But it basically hasnt flinched for multiple runs now. I think most people are very frightened by a touch warmer at this juncture to be honest 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: I think most people are very frightened by a touch warmer at this juncture to be honest It actually has .1 more for DC this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 It actually has .1 more for DC this run Snows for 15 minutes rather than 0? 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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