Deck Pic Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 FYI - 18z Euro should be in range in about 15 minutes. having euro 4x day here on out should clear everything up 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 14 minutes ago, SnowBeach said: Lots of uncertainty today. From my perspective, living in SEVA trying to decide if I should pull the trigger on a cabin in the Luray area for a chase. Happy for the something to track within the state this year, but not excited about a sloppy solution or bust driving all that way. Would love the input from the seasoned vets and Mets on this area. Edited to add: willing to wait until 12z tomorrow to make a decision. I did some hiking this afternoon on Skyline Drive near Luray. Surprised to see that shaded areas on north-facing hills had some snow cover. I think that area should do well on Saturday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: FYI - 18z Euro should be in range in about 15 minutes. having euro 4x day here on out should clear everything up IDK man. The best thing about the 18Z suite so far is that the UKIE held from 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, WVclimo said: I did some hiking this afternoon on Skyline Drive near Luray. Surprised to see that shaded areas on north-facing hills had some snow cover. I think that area should do well on Saturday. Problem there is accessing it. They shut the drive down any time there’s inclement weather, so it’s either hike in/out or wait for the road to reopen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Let's be real... I want 10''+ inches or nothing.... So, give us plain RAIN... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 18z euro prob gonna bump N again if I were to guess. Weaker confluence and stronger shortwave . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 5 minutes ago, Heisy said: 18z euro prob gonna bump N again if I were to guess. Weaker confluence and stronger shortwave . It's about the same as 12z, maybe a tad warmer. Which is not good for the DC/Balt immediate metros. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Send in the clowns . 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 57 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: The DCA sounding at hour 72 is kind of tasty. I just don't know how long the lowlands will be able to stay snow. Once it gets east of our longitude it will be snow again if it didn’t stay snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Let’s see what curveballs the 0z suite has in store for us. Need that 0z run good we’ve had the last 2 nights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: See what I mean? Just block him already. You will be much saner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Gut feeling tells me tonight’s GFS will be a forum wide uplift 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 15 minutes ago, Heisy said: Send in the clowns . Why not just wait and post it after it’s completely over? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Euro took a better track. It’s colder north of us. It’s just now at cold with the antecedent airmass as the gfs. There isn’t any synoptic correction we need other than for it to be several degrees colder. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Euro took a better track. It’s colder north of us. It’s just now at cold with the antecedent airmass as the gfs. There isn’t any synoptic correction we need other than for it to be several degrees colder. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Euro took a better track. It’s colder north of us. It’s just now at cold with the antecedent airmass as the gfs. There isn’t any synoptic correction we need other than for it to be several degrees colder. I don't have access to the off run euros. Can you post the 850s for the Gfs and Euro? How big of a spread is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Euro took a better track. It’s colder north of us. It’s just now at cold with the antecedent airmass as the gfs. There isn’t any synoptic correction we need other than for it to be several degrees colder. And one of them will be wrong. Or both. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 6 minutes ago, Terpeast said: And one of them will be wrong. Or both. Will be interested to see the thermals on the EPS for indy members. They have decent resolution compared to members of GEFS/GEPS. The mean & more importantly the median ticked up at 12z after a not so great op run. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxtrix Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 i still have hope. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WolfStock1 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 59 minutes ago, WVclimo said: I did some hiking this afternoon on Skyline Drive near Luray. Surprised to see that shaded areas on north-facing hills had some snow cover. I think that area should do well on Saturday. I'm up on Hogback mountain (SW of Leesburg). On Monday we got snow all afternoon (though no accumulation), whereas just 200' lower in elevation it was all rain. Never seen it so clearly demarcated like that. Will be curious if the same thing happens this weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Put on those rally caps ladies & gents. 00z is gonna reel this sucker in. You know, better sampling and such. . 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, WolfStock1 said: I'm up on Hogback mountain (SW of Leesburg). On Monday we got snow all afternoon (though no accumulation), whereas just 200' lower in elevation it was all rain. Never seen it so clearly demarcated like that. Will be curious if the same thing happens this weekend. We’re wine club members at Stone Tower. Beautiful spot up there on Hogback. You should do well even compared to Leesburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 this is what I mean. And ya of course if we had some arctic banana 1035 high instead of the inverted trough to a NS system ya…but that was never the setup. Within this paradigm we got most everything to go our way, as it often does in a Nino, we just need it to trend a few degrees colder. It’s not impossible! It’s a minor adjustment. The NAM was much cooler leading in but it has the wrong synoptic solution. lol. That said given the recent results I’d rather need warmer v colder as an adjustment 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: this is what I mean. And ya of course if we had some arctic banana 1035 high instead of the inverted trough to a NS system ya…but that was never the setup. Within this paradigm we got most everything to go our way, as it often does in a Nino, we just need it to trend a few degrees colder. It’s not impossible! It’s a minor adjustment. The NAM was much cooler leading in but it has the wrong synoptic solution. lol. That said given the recent results I’d rather need warmer v colder as an adjustment Perfect track rainstorm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 EPS looks a bit weaker but same wrt to temps and track, i think it will hold gen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 9 minutes ago, nj2va said: We’re wine club members at Stone Tower. Beautiful spot up there on Hogback. You should do well even compared to Leesburg. My wife and I were married at Stone Tower...beautiful spot 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 mean is less but thats just cause less precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 10 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Perfect track rainstorm lol Ya I know but I’m not trying to have that fight again. My point was we don’t need a track adjustment. Case in point 18z euro was a little southeast of its 12z track and it’s slightly warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ya I know but I’m not trying to have that fight again. My point was we don’t need a track adjustment. Case in point 18z euro was a little southeast of its 12z track and it’s slightly warmer. Looking at the closer up map on weather models site it has a low over the bay. Probably what makes it too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 13 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: mean is less but thats just cause less precip The eps has been a false positive. At longer leads the ensemble will have a more expensive snow shield due to spread. As the lead shortens it will tighten up as variance decreases. You don’t want to be near the southern area of the snow ok an ensemble at 72+ hours. As the gradient tightens you’ll usually end up on the wrong side. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now