psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 this is what I mean. And ya of course if we had some arctic banana 1035 high instead of the inverted trough to a NS system ya…but that was never the setup. Within this paradigm we got most everything to go our way, as it often does in a Nino, we just need it to trend a few degrees colder. It’s not impossible! It’s a minor adjustment. The NAM was much cooler leading in but it has the wrong synoptic solution. lol. That said given the recent results I’d rather need warmer v colder as an adjustment 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 On 1/4/2024 at 12:59 AM, psuhoffman said: this is what I mean. And ya of course if we had some arctic banana 1035 high instead of the inverted trough to a NS system ya…but that was never the setup. Within this paradigm we got most everything to go our way, as it often does in a Nino, we just need it to trend a few degrees colder. It’s not impossible! It’s a minor adjustment. The NAM was much cooler leading in but it has the wrong synoptic solution. lol. That said given the recent results I’d rather need warmer v colder as an adjustment Expand Perfect track rainstorm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 EPS looks a bit weaker but same wrt to temps and track, i think it will hold gen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 On 1/4/2024 at 12:57 AM, nj2va said: We’re wine club members at Stone Tower. Beautiful spot up there on Hogback. You should do well even compared to Leesburg. Expand My wife and I were married at Stone Tower...beautiful spot 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 mean is less but thats just cause less precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 On 1/4/2024 at 1:01 AM, Chris78 said: Perfect track rainstorm lol Expand Ya I know but I’m not trying to have that fight again. My point was we don’t need a track adjustment. Case in point 18z euro was a little southeast of its 12z track and it’s slightly warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 On 1/4/2024 at 1:14 AM, psuhoffman said: Ya I know but I’m not trying to have that fight again. My point was we don’t need a track adjustment. Case in point 18z euro was a little southeast of its 12z track and it’s slightly warmer. Expand Looking at the closer up map on weather models site it has a low over the bay. Probably what makes it too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 On 1/4/2024 at 1:11 AM, DarkSharkWX said: mean is less but thats just cause less precip Expand The eps has been a false positive. At longer leads the ensemble will have a more expensive snow shield due to spread. As the lead shortens it will tighten up as variance decreases. You don’t want to be near the southern area of the snow ok an ensemble at 72+ hours. As the gradient tightens you’ll usually end up on the wrong side. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 On 1/4/2024 at 1:26 AM, psuhoffman said: The eps has been a false positive. At longer leads the ensemble will have a more expensive snow shield due to spread. As the lead shortens it will tighten up as variance decreases. You don’t want to be near the southern area of the snow ok an ensemble at 72+ hours. As the gradient tightens you’ll usually end up on the wrong side. Expand true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 On 1/4/2024 at 1:26 AM, psuhoffman said: The eps has been a false positive. At longer leads the ensemble will have a more expensive snow shield due to spread. As the lead shortens it will tighten up as variance decreases. You don’t want to be near the southern area of the snow ok an ensemble at 72+ hours. As the gradient tightens you’ll usually end up on the wrong side. Expand 18z definitely tightened up the goal posts. Are we at the end of the ensembles being useful for this event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 On 1/4/2024 at 1:08 AM, aldie 22 said: My wife and I were married at Stone Tower...beautiful spot Expand To each other? If not that’s a story I need to hear!!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 On 1/4/2024 at 1:29 AM, Chris78 said: 18z definitely tightened up the goal posts. Are we at the end of the ensembles being useful for this event? Expand Getting there but in a case with divergent camps they can still be useful. It the op will be better at details and thermals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 On 1/4/2024 at 1:29 AM, Chris78 said: 18z definitely tightened up the goal posts. Are we at the end of the ensembles being useful for this event? Expand Did by “tightening up” did you mean “move far away?” lol I’m down on this one, don’t think this is trending in the right direction. Surprise me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eddygeeme Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 This will come down to a game of watching temps Friday Night with lows in the mid to upper 20s with clear skies giving way to increasing clouds across much the forecast area sw to ne. Where temps drop enough before the cloud cover comes in will help greatly. Check your temps if you're low to mid 30s overnight Friday..... I'm expecting the typical slop across the area from heavy rain to heavy snow and everything in between. EDIT-High IMBY Saturday is 35 low 31 Saturday night. Temps running 2-3 degrees colder Friday night and holding thru Sat early afternoon changes a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 On 1/4/2024 at 2:31 AM, eddygeeme said: This will come down to a game of watching temps Friday Night with lows in the mid to upper 20s with clear skies giving way to increasing clouds across much the forecast area sw to ne. Where temps drop enough before the cloud cover comes in will help greatly. Check your temps if you're just at or above freezing late night Friday..... Expand well so far DCA hasn't been below freezing since before Christmas, and even up here around 400 ft in Tenleytown we have just barely grazed the freezing point. Hopefully the air mass in place in a couple days can push the temps down a bit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 NAM at 57 looks pretty darn cold with cad far down into southern/southwestern NC and a good slug of freezing rain pushing through that area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 On 1/4/2024 at 2:34 AM, Buddy1987 said: NAM at 57 looks pretty darn cold with cad far down into southern/southwestern NC and a good slug of freezing rain pushing through that area. Expand Yes, but... which is significantly warmer than 18Z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 On 1/4/2024 at 2:35 AM, StormyClearweather said: Yes, but... which is significantly warmer than 18Z NAM. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 On 1/4/2024 at 2:35 AM, StormyClearweather said: Yes, but... which is significantly warmer than 18Z NAM. Expand Column cools quicky though once precip starts, so ignore me. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 Looking far better at good ole 69, FWIW 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 Nam looks ok to me…. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 Yeah, we take the 00z NAM all day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 On 1/4/2024 at 2:43 AM, LeesburgWx said: Yeah, we take the 00z NAM all dayOnly a three hour window of snow before a switch to rain? Unless im looking at the wrong run?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 R/S line literally on I-95 from just south of DC to Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 On 1/4/2024 at 2:45 AM, Imgoinhungry said: Only a three hour window of snow before a switch to rain? Unless im looking at the wrong run?.I think nam is in catch up mode. It gave me .15 liquid at 12z lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 One thing is for sure… NAM has an actual system there, which is certainly better than 18z’s depiction of a non system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 NAM trying to bring some wrap around out this way too. Also a pretty strong ULL there as well. Interesting run. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 On 1/4/2024 at 2:48 AM, jayyy said: One thing is for sure… NAM has an actual system there, which is certainly better than 18z’s depiction of a non system . Expand Quick, we need the Ralph Wiggum NAM GIF 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 On 1/4/2024 at 2:48 AM, jayyy said: One thing is for sure… NAM has an actual system there, which is certainly better than 18z’s depiction of a non system . Expand Hopefully it is picking up on better thermals and the ops are right with the amplitude and track. At this range, both of these can be true 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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