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January 6-7 Storm Discussion: we’re due?


WxUSAF
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4 minutes ago, TinGTown said:

Hello PSU!  I have a question for you.  Thousands of kids are driving to State College from the DMV and surrounding areas this weekend.  What is you take for State College and the surrounding areas for snowfall amounts and driving conditions Sunday?  

Breezewood is almost the half way point from DC to State College and even during fall days the fog on 70 )at the upper elevations) gives almost zero visibility.  I can't imagine the fog and snow combined.

Thanks for your help!  I appreciate it.  

This is more banter, but….

i make the drive to PSU regularly throughout the year and for the last 25 years. Roads on Sunday will largely be fine. Your usual icy spots, but there shouldn’t be any major issues on the primary roads. 

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4 minutes ago, TinGTown said:

Hello PSU!  I have a question for you.  Thousands of kids are driving to State College from the DMV and surrounding areas this weekend.  What is you take for State College and the surrounding areas for snowfall amounts and driving conditions Sunday?  

Breezewood is almost the half way point from DC to State College and even during fall days the fog on 70 )at the upper elevations) gives almost zero visibility.  I can't imagine the fog and snow combined.

Thanks for your help!  I appreciate it.  

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/breezewood/15533/weather-forecast/2215530

 

I live close to Breezewood and if we get 6-10 like that Accuweather forecast is predicting you do not want to be on the Turnpike or 70 Saturday. They meet at Breezewood. If it gets bad enough the Turnpike gets shut down, and Town Hill Mountain on 70 coming up from DC gets bad.  I99, that is near me too is also bad for wecks during snowstorms. Many use 99 to go to State College from here.

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7 minutes ago, snowfan said:

This is more banter, but….

i make the drive to PSU regularly throughout the year and for the last 25 years. Roads on Sunday will largely be fine. Your usual icy spots, but there shouldn’t be any major issues on the primary roads. 

That should be "primary highways".................... Only secondaries are "roads"..... education is priceless.

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22 minutes ago, eddygeeme said:

Indeed the last change over event here in Germantown we overperformed I live off exit 16 by Clarksburg and heading up to Damascus. We got 2inches out of what was suppose to be just over a trace. Been living at this location for 8 yrs and it "feels" like one of those situations. 

This is indeed the type of setup where Parrs Ridge typically does well. 
 

Edited to add:  Those low level ESE and E winds advecting moisture in combined with the upglide can really wring things out on a front end thump like that at Parrs Ridge. Take a look at PSU’s post here.  Good rationale there as well. 

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7 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

My gosh look at that gradient over just the 23 miles between Damascus at the top of Mont Co and Silver Spring!

You always want to be on the gradient line I always heard someone will get the thump or the shaft. Hopefully with rates there is more thump for a lot more areas. Pray for chillier temps to hold. Watching the thermals with this  will be key. I'll be watching like a hawk starting Friday afternoon to see how cool temps get and how fast cloud cover rolls in Saturday morning.

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7 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Happy to see the HH GFS, but kinda hard to get too invested when models can't even agree on what kind of storm this is going to be... or if there is even going to be one.

It really has been a difficult storm for the ops and the mesos to nail down specifics like thermals.  

On the other hand, it seems the ensembles did well, since we have been tracking this specific sw for about 2 weeks now?  Pretty impressive on their part.

It struck me this week that all of my coworkers have been and are aware of this possible winter threat from 5-7 days out. A lot of progress has been made from times in the 1960s when meteorologists would say light snow tomorrow in Staunton followed by 20+” the next day (in-law family stories)

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27 minutes ago, eddygeeme said:

Indeed the last change over event here in Germantown we overperformed I live off exit 16 by Clarksburg and heading up to Damascus. We got 2inches out of what was suppose to be just over a trace. Been living at this location for 8 yrs and it "feels" like one of those situations. 

Oh yea, it's a thing.  That area is a microclimate.

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29 minutes ago, TinGTown said:

Hello PSU!  I have a question for you.  Thousands of kids are driving to State College from the DMV and surrounding areas this weekend.  What is you take for State College and the surrounding areas for snowfall amounts and driving conditions Sunday?  

Breezewood is almost the half way point from DC to State College and even during fall days the fog on 70 )at the upper elevations) gives almost zero visibility.  I can't imagine the fog and snow combined.

Thanks for your help!  I appreciate it.  

Snow should be gone by Sunday. They get the roads clear fast. 70 and 99 should be ok. I drove to PSU from DMV in snow several times and had no problems. But I use common sense like slow down when it’s icy. 

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An observation tells me we are still in the game for Saturday though some are giving up.

24 hours ago my 3 model blend for Augusta was 7 inches.

Now, that same GFS, ECM and GEM blend is 7.3 inches.

As I said 24 hours ago.................. These models will hone in on a solution by tomorrow afternoon.

It will not be a human solution,  it will be the models.   

 

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2 minutes ago, stormy said:

An observation tells me we are still in the game for Saturday though some are giving up.

24 hours ago my 3 model blend for Augusta was 7 inches.

Now, that same GFS, ECM and GEM blend is 7.3 inches.

As I said 24 hours ago.................. These models will hone in on a solution by tomorrow afternoon.

It will not be a human solution,  it will be the models.   

 

See what I mean?

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11 minutes ago, stormy said:

An observation tells me we are still in the game for Saturday though some are giving up.

24 hours ago my 3 model blend for Augusta was 7 inches.

Now, that same GFS, ECM and GEM blend is 7.3 inches.

As I said 24 hours ago.................. These models will hone in on a solution by tomorrow afternoon.

It will not be a human solution,  it will be the models.   

 

 

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Lots of uncertainty today. From my perspective, living in SEVA trying to decide if I should pull the trigger on a cabin in the Luray area for a chase. Happy for the something to track within the state this year, but not excited about a sloppy solution or bust driving all that way. Would love the input from the seasoned vets and Mets on this area. 
 

Edited to add: willing to wait until 12z tomorrow to make a decision.

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Lots of uncertainty today. From my perspective, living in SEVA trying to decide if I should pull the trigger on a cabin in the Luray area for a chase. Happy for the something to track within the state this year, but not excited about a sloppy solution or bust driving all that way. Would love the input from the seasoned vets and Mets on this area. 
 
Edited to add: willing to wait until 12z tomorrow to make a decision.

Pick a different storm to chase. A chase needs a 12-24 hour precip event imo
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27 minutes ago, stormy said:

An observation tells me we are still in the game for Saturday though some are giving up.

24 hours ago my 3 model blend for Augusta was 7 inches.

Now, that same GFS, ECM and GEM blend is 7.3 inches.

As I said 24 hours ago.................. These models will hone in on a solution by tomorrow afternoon.

It will not be a human solution,  it will be the models.   

 

Can you please hook me up with whatever you’ve been smoking tonight

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7 minutes ago, Snowchaser said:

 snow.png.cf1960da3b2536a6d18e4f16646de7d0.png

Washington Up to 1''

Winchester 3-5''

Staunton 1-3''

Charlottesville around 1''

Snowshoe Mountain 6-10''

 

 Going to head to Snowshoe for this one. Should have some solid snowfall rates there. Cheers.

Pretty good I’d say

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