psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 11 minutes ago, stormy said: An observation tells me we are still in the game for Saturday though some are giving up. 24 hours ago my 3 model blend for Augusta was 7 inches. Now, that same GFS, ECM and GEM blend is 7.3 inches. As I said 24 hours ago.................. These models will hone in on a solution by tomorrow afternoon. It will not be a human solution, it will be the models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 Perhaps banter, but I only post the long range snow now during really quiet periods. This storm amuses me. Western zones east of BR have waited a long time for a storm.... my four hour roundtrip commute to DC should be worth something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 I'm getting tired of tracking this system...is it gonna snow or not? 3 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBeach Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 Lots of uncertainty today. From my perspective, living in SEVA trying to decide if I should pull the trigger on a cabin in the Luray area for a chase. Happy for the something to track within the state this year, but not excited about a sloppy solution or bust driving all that way. Would love the input from the seasoned vets and Mets on this area. Edited to add: willing to wait until 12z tomorrow to make a decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 Lots of uncertainty today. From my perspective, living in SEVA trying to decide if I should pull the trigger on a cabin in the Luray area for a chase. Happy for the something to track within the state this year, but not excited about a sloppy solution or bust driving all that way. Would love the input from the seasoned vets and Mets on this area. Edited to add: willing to wait until 12z tomorrow to make a decision.Pick a different storm to chase. A chase needs a 12-24 hour precip event imo 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 27 minutes ago, stormy said: An observation tells me we are still in the game for Saturday though some are giving up. 24 hours ago my 3 model blend for Augusta was 7 inches. Now, that same GFS, ECM and GEM blend is 7.3 inches. As I said 24 hours ago.................. These models will hone in on a solution by tomorrow afternoon. It will not be a human solution, it will be the models. Can you please hook me up with whatever you’ve been smoking tonight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eddygeeme Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 32 minutes ago, 87storms said: Oh yea, it's a thing. That area is a microclimate. Always assumed it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 13 minutes ago, 87storms said: I'm getting tired of tracking this system...is it gonna snow or not? Ask stormy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 7 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: Washington Up to 1'' Winchester 3-5'' Staunton 1-3'' Charlottesville around 1'' Snowshoe Mountain 6-10'' Going to head to Snowshoe for this one. Should have some solid snowfall rates there. Cheers. Pretty good I’d say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Pretty good I’d say Is that saying 1-3 western London to Hagerstown through Gettysburg? Would be a bust on the very low end for models in those parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 Waiting for our at range NAMing . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 14 minutes ago, SnowBeach said: Lots of uncertainty today. From my perspective, living in SEVA trying to decide if I should pull the trigger on a cabin in the Luray area for a chase. Happy for the something to track within the state this year, but not excited about a sloppy solution or bust driving all that way. Would love the input from the seasoned vets and Mets on this area. Edited to add: willing to wait until 12z tomorrow to make a decision. I did some hiking this afternoon on Skyline Drive near Luray. Surprised to see that shaded areas on north-facing hills had some snow cover. I think that area should do well on Saturday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: FYI - 18z Euro should be in range in about 15 minutes. having euro 4x day here on out should clear everything up IDK man. The best thing about the 18Z suite so far is that the UKIE held from 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 4 minutes ago, WVclimo said: I did some hiking this afternoon on Skyline Drive near Luray. Surprised to see that shaded areas on north-facing hills had some snow cover. I think that area should do well on Saturday. Problem there is accessing it. They shut the drive down any time there’s inclement weather, so it’s either hike in/out or wait for the road to reopen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 Let's be real... I want 10''+ inches or nothing.... So, give us plain RAIN... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 18z euro prob gonna bump N again if I were to guess. Weaker confluence and stronger shortwave . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 Send in the clowns . 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 57 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: The DCA sounding at hour 72 is kind of tasty. I just don't know how long the lowlands will be able to stay snow. Once it gets east of our longitude it will be snow again if it didn’t stay snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 Let’s see what curveballs the 0z suite has in store for us. Need that 0z run good we’ve had the last 2 nights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: See what I mean? Just block him already. You will be much saner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 Gut feeling tells me tonight’s GFS will be a forum wide uplift 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 15 minutes ago, Heisy said: Send in the clowns . Why not just wait and post it after it’s completely over? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 Euro took a better track. It’s colder north of us. It’s just now at cold with the antecedent airmass as the gfs. There isn’t any synoptic correction we need other than for it to be several degrees colder. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Euro took a better track. It’s colder north of us. It’s just now at cold with the antecedent airmass as the gfs. There isn’t any synoptic correction we need other than for it to be several degrees colder. I don't have access to the off run euros. Can you post the 850s for the Gfs and Euro? How big of a spread is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Euro took a better track. It’s colder north of us. It’s just now at cold with the antecedent airmass as the gfs. There isn’t any synoptic correction we need other than for it to be several degrees colder. And one of them will be wrong. Or both. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 6 minutes ago, Terpeast said: And one of them will be wrong. Or both. Will be interested to see the thermals on the EPS for indy members. They have decent resolution compared to members of GEFS/GEPS. The mean & more importantly the median ticked up at 12z after a not so great op run. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxtrix Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 i still have hope. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WolfStock1 Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 59 minutes ago, WVclimo said: I did some hiking this afternoon on Skyline Drive near Luray. Surprised to see that shaded areas on north-facing hills had some snow cover. I think that area should do well on Saturday. I'm up on Hogback mountain (SW of Leesburg). On Monday we got snow all afternoon (though no accumulation), whereas just 200' lower in elevation it was all rain. Never seen it so clearly demarcated like that. Will be curious if the same thing happens this weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 Put on those rally caps ladies & gents. 00z is gonna reel this sucker in. You know, better sampling and such. . 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 2 minutes ago, WolfStock1 said: I'm up on Hogback mountain (SW of Leesburg). On Monday we got snow all afternoon (though no accumulation), whereas just 200' lower in elevation it was all rain. Never seen it so clearly demarcated like that. Will be curious if the same thing happens this weekend. We’re wine club members at Stone Tower. Beautiful spot up there on Hogback. You should do well even compared to Leesburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now