snowfan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: lol nice self portrait. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 17 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Looks great to me! WB 18Z GFS You were just moaning about how bad the models are. Purely emotional reaction based on desired outcome. Just like I said lol. 8 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, TinGTown said: Hello PSU! I have a question for you. Thousands of kids are driving to State College from the DMV and surrounding areas this weekend. What is you take for State College and the surrounding areas for snowfall amounts and driving conditions Sunday? Breezewood is almost the half way point from DC to State College and even during fall days the fog on 70 )at the upper elevations) gives almost zero visibility. I can't imagine the fog and snow combined. Thanks for your help! I appreciate it. This is more banter, but…. i make the drive to PSU regularly throughout the year and for the last 25 years. Roads on Sunday will largely be fine. Your usual icy spots, but there shouldn’t be any major issues on the primary roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
str8liner Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, TinGTown said: Hello PSU! I have a question for you. Thousands of kids are driving to State College from the DMV and surrounding areas this weekend. What is you take for State College and the surrounding areas for snowfall amounts and driving conditions Sunday? Breezewood is almost the half way point from DC to State College and even during fall days the fog on 70 )at the upper elevations) gives almost zero visibility. I can't imagine the fog and snow combined. Thanks for your help! I appreciate it. https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/breezewood/15533/weather-forecast/2215530 I live close to Breezewood and if we get 6-10 like that Accuweather forecast is predicting you do not want to be on the Turnpike or 70 Saturday. They meet at Breezewood. If it gets bad enough the Turnpike gets shut down, and Town Hill Mountain on 70 coming up from DC gets bad. I99, that is near me too is also bad for wecks during snowstorms. Many use 99 to go to State College from here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 7 minutes ago, snowfan said: This is more banter, but…. i make the drive to PSU regularly throughout the year and for the last 25 years. Roads on Sunday will largely be fine. Your usual icy spots, but there shouldn’t be any major issues on the primary roads. That should be "primary highways".................... Only secondaries are "roads"..... education is priceless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: for those that want to feel better, or worse, for a few hours My gosh look at that gradient over just the 23 miles between Damascus at the top of Mont Co and Silver Spring! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 So they will oscillate 20-30 miles rest of the way . I’m hoping by Friday 3pm ish that we can see what’s happening, For now just roll with the 6 hour . is that realistic time to be able to identify on Friday ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Happy to see the HH GFS, but kinda hard to get too invested when models can't even agree on what kind of storm this is going to be... or if there is even going to be one. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 22 minutes ago, eddygeeme said: Indeed the last change over event here in Germantown we overperformed I live off exit 16 by Clarksburg and heading up to Damascus. We got 2inches out of what was suppose to be just over a trace. Been living at this location for 8 yrs and it "feels" like one of those situations. This is indeed the type of setup where Parrs Ridge typically does well. Edited to add: Those low level ESE and E winds advecting moisture in combined with the upglide can really wring things out on a front end thump like that at Parrs Ridge. Take a look at PSU’s post here. Good rationale there as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eddygeeme Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 7 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said: My gosh look at that gradient over just the 23 miles between Damascus at the top of Mont Co and Silver Spring! You always want to be on the gradient line I always heard someone will get the thump or the shaft. Hopefully with rates there is more thump for a lot more areas. Pray for chillier temps to hold. Watching the thermals with this will be key. I'll be watching like a hawk starting Friday afternoon to see how cool temps get and how fast cloud cover rolls in Saturday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 7 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Happy to see the HH GFS, but kinda hard to get too invested when models can't even agree on what kind of storm this is going to be... or if there is even going to be one. It really has been a difficult storm for the ops and the mesos to nail down specifics like thermals. On the other hand, it seems the ensembles did well, since we have been tracking this specific sw for about 2 weeks now? Pretty impressive on their part. It struck me this week that all of my coworkers have been and are aware of this possible winter threat from 5-7 days out. A lot of progress has been made from times in the 1960s when meteorologists would say light snow tomorrow in Staunton followed by 20+” the next day (in-law family stories) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Looks great to me! WB 18Z GFSPsu just posted that map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 12 minutes ago, stormy said: That should be "primary highways".................... Only secondaries are "roads"..... education is priceless. You might want to step away for a bit 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 27 minutes ago, eddygeeme said: Indeed the last change over event here in Germantown we overperformed I live off exit 16 by Clarksburg and heading up to Damascus. We got 2inches out of what was suppose to be just over a trace. Been living at this location for 8 yrs and it "feels" like one of those situations. Oh yea, it's a thing. That area is a microclimate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 29 minutes ago, TinGTown said: Hello PSU! I have a question for you. Thousands of kids are driving to State College from the DMV and surrounding areas this weekend. What is you take for State College and the surrounding areas for snowfall amounts and driving conditions Sunday? Breezewood is almost the half way point from DC to State College and even during fall days the fog on 70 )at the upper elevations) gives almost zero visibility. I can't imagine the fog and snow combined. Thanks for your help! I appreciate it. Snow should be gone by Sunday. They get the roads clear fast. 70 and 99 should be ok. I drove to PSU from DMV in snow several times and had no problems. But I use common sense like slow down when it’s icy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 The DCA sounding at hour 72 is kind of tasty. I just don't know how long the lowlands will be able to stay snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 An observation tells me we are still in the game for Saturday though some are giving up. 24 hours ago my 3 model blend for Augusta was 7 inches. Now, that same GFS, ECM and GEM blend is 7.3 inches. As I said 24 hours ago.................. These models will hone in on a solution by tomorrow afternoon. It will not be a human solution, it will be the models. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, stormy said: An observation tells me we are still in the game for Saturday though some are giving up. 24 hours ago my 3 model blend for Augusta was 7 inches. Now, that same GFS, ECM and GEM blend is 7.3 inches. As I said 24 hours ago.................. These models will hone in on a solution by tomorrow afternoon. It will not be a human solution, it will be the models. See what I mean? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 11 minutes ago, stormy said: An observation tells me we are still in the game for Saturday though some are giving up. 24 hours ago my 3 model blend for Augusta was 7 inches. Now, that same GFS, ECM and GEM blend is 7.3 inches. As I said 24 hours ago.................. These models will hone in on a solution by tomorrow afternoon. It will not be a human solution, it will be the models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Perhaps banter, but I only post the long range snow now during really quiet periods. This storm amuses me. Western zones east of BR have waited a long time for a storm.... my four hour roundtrip commute to DC should be worth something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I'm getting tired of tracking this system...is it gonna snow or not? 3 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBeach Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Lots of uncertainty today. From my perspective, living in SEVA trying to decide if I should pull the trigger on a cabin in the Luray area for a chase. Happy for the something to track within the state this year, but not excited about a sloppy solution or bust driving all that way. Would love the input from the seasoned vets and Mets on this area. Edited to add: willing to wait until 12z tomorrow to make a decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Lots of uncertainty today. From my perspective, living in SEVA trying to decide if I should pull the trigger on a cabin in the Luray area for a chase. Happy for the something to track within the state this year, but not excited about a sloppy solution or bust driving all that way. Would love the input from the seasoned vets and Mets on this area. Edited to add: willing to wait until 12z tomorrow to make a decision.Pick a different storm to chase. A chase needs a 12-24 hour precip event imo 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, Ji said: Pick a different storm to chase. A chase needs a 12-24 hour precip event imo It's a good local chase opportunity - potentially. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 27 minutes ago, stormy said: An observation tells me we are still in the game for Saturday though some are giving up. 24 hours ago my 3 model blend for Augusta was 7 inches. Now, that same GFS, ECM and GEM blend is 7.3 inches. As I said 24 hours ago.................. These models will hone in on a solution by tomorrow afternoon. It will not be a human solution, it will be the models. Can you please hook me up with whatever you’ve been smoking tonight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eddygeeme Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 32 minutes ago, 87storms said: Oh yea, it's a thing. That area is a microclimate. Always assumed it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 13 minutes ago, 87storms said: I'm getting tired of tracking this system...is it gonna snow or not? Ask stormy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 7 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: Washington Up to 1'' Winchester 3-5'' Staunton 1-3'' Charlottesville around 1'' Snowshoe Mountain 6-10'' Going to head to Snowshoe for this one. Should have some solid snowfall rates there. Cheers. Pretty good I’d say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Pretty good I’d say Is that saying 1-3 western London to Hagerstown through Gettysburg? Would be a bust on the very low end for models in those parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Waiting for our at range NAMing . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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