PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 47 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Wasn't the whole "sampling" thing (@dtk??) sort of debunked some time ago? As in, it's not really an issue with today's NWP. That's always brought up with every storm still, at least in terms of the 00/12Z suites vs. 06/18Z. Things may change or "trend" (such as it is), but that's not really due to "better sampling." Yes, the "better sampling when it comes onshore" and "6z/18z are of lower quality because they ingest less data" are both myths that have been debunked by those in the know, but I still see them often repeated here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: If you must look at the ICON, 12z is almost identical to 0z. Last post I'll ever hopefully make about the ICON (note: i'll talk about the ICON again in 6 hours probably) -- that's untrue at the surface at least. Snow depth maps for 00z ICON are 6-8" in DC proper. At 12z it's 0-2". 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 This trend seems good to me 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Icon is definitely a bit worse for some, for the little it matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 12 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Icon is ever so slightly warmer than 6z, maybe a 5-10 mile shift northwest in the rain snow line ... Mainly noise but would have been nice to see a south shift instead. thermals are wrong, it shows low-mid 20s in like SNE and rain 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: Icon is definitely a bit worse for some, for the little it matters. And yes, it's the Icon but it seems to be following the other globals last few runs of a slightly warmer more inland track... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Last post I'll ever hopefully make about the ICON (note: i'll talk about the ICON again in 6 hours probably) -- that's untrue at the surface at least. Snow depth maps for 00z ICON are 6-8" in DC proper. At 12z it's 0-2". Oh I wasn't even looking at the snow maps. I was looking at h5 and slp tracks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: This trend seems good to me Where that line ends up for the R/S designation, anyone NW of that has a great chance to see high end advisory to low/middle end warning criteria snow. This system will be bringing the juice. Will come down to thermals 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, Terpeast said: Oh I wasn't even looking at the snow maps. I was looking at h5 and slp tracks Honestly -- that's appreciated. Can't help myself though... maybe one day. 1 minute ago, DarkSharkWX said: thermals are wrong, it shows low-mid 20s in like SNE and rain yeah -- it does actually have a better CAD signal when you look at it going in, but verbatim DC loses <=32 temps by 9:00am and never regains them the entire weekend lol. 850s are only toasted for ~3hrs though... so would be a battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Lots of competing factors so far on the GFS through 75. Less press but more interaction with the SW behind our storm. The Jan 4th Storm was also stronger. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 CMC is backing down on the amp thru 78. Colder run likely at least for one model... with an ugly previous solution. Lol 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 GFS a tick better perhaps though 99. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 GFS looks to have slightly less confluence and a little warmer through 102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, LP08 said: GFS a tick better perhaps though 99. primary rides into WV...the less confluence killed it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 12z gfs won’t be making new friends. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 OV primary stronger on GFS, sigh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 Devil is in the details of how the shortwaves interact and phase. Weaker northern stream energy seems to hurt as compared to some snowier solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Ohio vort no good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 CMC looks better than its past run so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 FWIW 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Dang pretty much all rain for the metros this run. Ah well, if this one doesn't work out, at least the upcoming pattern looks more promising! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: CMC looks better than its past run so far Very much improved, has rain snow line right along the fall line through 108 compared to sleet into the mountains on the 0z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Devil is in the details of how the shortwaves interact and phase. Weaker northern stream energy seems to hurt as compared to some snowier solutions. Yeah if we're looking at shortwave interactions...I do have to wonder how well the GFS is gonna handle that (no copium here, just wondering given it's jumpiness since the upgrade) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 This is not the pattern setup you want for significant snowfall in the MA. 500mb pattern is progressive, lack of ridging over the west and weak high to the north retreats with airmass not overly cold. “ Cold airmass” in place will not be cold enough for most areas east of the mountains. Need upper energy to be deepening to our south, GFS coming more into reality now with the progressive weaker system. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 GFS is really hanging back some energy in the SW that allows the lead wave spacing and that goes straight N 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 CMC crusher NW of 95 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 much better this run 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Looks like Gfs and cmc switched spots 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Chuck had valid concerns, with that said it’s still early in this game. Hoping things trend back the other direction, but IMHO it’s important not to belittle perspectives that don’t align with desire. Always better to weigh all input even if you disagree. Chuck is a smart guy. Here’s to hoping things start shifting back to colder solutions while we’re still in the period that they (shifts) can be expected. Overnight -> tomorrow will be telling, IMHO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 People are going to over analyze all the little details, the primary was actually weaker and in the same location this run. The GFS/Icon and 6z euro were simply weaker and warmer. That's it. I think those 2 things are related but I don't feel like over analyzing it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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