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January 6-7 Storm Discussion: we’re due?


WxUSAF
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47 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Wasn't the whole "sampling" thing (@dtk??) sort of debunked some time ago?  As in, it's not really an issue with today's NWP.  That's always brought up with every storm still, at least in terms of the 00/12Z suites vs. 06/18Z.  Things may change or "trend" (such as it is), but that's not really due to "better sampling."

Yes, the "better sampling when it comes onshore" and "6z/18z are of lower quality because they ingest less data" are both myths that have been debunked by those in the know, but I still see them often repeated here.

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2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

If you must look at the ICON, 12z is almost identical to 0z. 

Last post I'll ever hopefully make about the ICON (note: i'll talk about the ICON again in 6 hours probably) -- that's untrue at the surface at least. Snow depth maps for 00z ICON are 6-8" in DC proper. At 12z it's 0-2".

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3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Last post I'll ever hopefully make about the ICON (note: i'll talk about the ICON again in 6 hours probably) -- that's untrue at the surface at least. Snow depth maps for 00z ICON are 6-8" in DC proper. At 12z it's 0-2".

Oh I wasn't even looking at the snow maps. I was looking at h5 and slp tracks

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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

This trend seems good to me

Where that line ends up for the R/S designation, anyone NW of that has a great chance to see high end advisory to low/middle end warning criteria snow. This system will be bringing the juice. Will come down to thermals 

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Just now, Terpeast said:

Oh I wasn't even looking at the snow maps. I was looking at h5 and slp tracks

Honestly -- that's appreciated. Can't help myself though... maybe one day.

1 minute ago, DarkSharkWX said:

thermals are wrong, it shows low-mid 20s in like SNE and rain

yeah -- it does actually have a better CAD signal when you look at it going in, but verbatim DC loses <=32 temps by 9:00am and never regains them the entire weekend lol. 850s are only toasted for ~3hrs though... so would be a battle. 

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Lots of competing factors so far on the GFS through 75.  Less press but more interaction with the SW behind our storm.  The Jan 4th Storm was also stronger.

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Devil is in the details of how the shortwaves interact and phase. Weaker northern stream energy seems to hurt as compared to some snowier solutions.

Yeah if we're looking at shortwave interactions...I do have to wonder how well the GFS is gonna handle that (no copium here, just wondering given it's jumpiness since the upgrade)

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This is not the pattern setup you want for significant snowfall in the MA. 500mb pattern is progressive, lack of ridging over the west and weak high to the north retreats with airmass not overly cold. “ Cold airmass” in place will not be cold enough for most areas east of the mountains. Need upper energy to be deepening to our south, GFS coming more into reality now with the progressive weaker system. 

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Chuck had valid concerns, with that said it’s still early in this game. Hoping things trend back the other direction, but IMHO it’s important not to belittle perspectives that don’t align with desire. Always better to weigh all input even if you disagree. Chuck is a smart guy. 

Here’s to hoping things start shifting back to colder solutions while we’re still in the period that they (shifts) can be expected. Overnight -> tomorrow will be telling, IMHO. 

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People are going to over analyze all the little details, the primary was actually weaker and in the same location this run.  The GFS/Icon and 6z euro were simply weaker and warmer.  That's it.  I think those 2 things are related but I don't feel like over analyzing it.  

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