January 6-7 Storm Discussion: we’re due?

[Jersey Andrew]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

for those that want to feel better, or worse, for a few hours 

That could be massive disappointment for me in SW Fairfax County. I”m hoping 3-6 here.

[aldie 22]

Just got back from the gym how are the trends?

[ravensrule]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

for those that want to feel better, or worse, for a few hours 

I would sign up for this is a heartbeat. It gives me 6-7”.

[Weather Junkie]

Just now, aldie 22 said:

Just got back from the gym how are the trends?

Depends. If you were at gym for 25 hours….horrendously typical.  If you had a 20 min workout, a bit improved

[jayyy]

for those that want to feel better, or worse, for a few hours 

Here we go again… 18z ticks SE, 0z will likely tick further SE…. Rinse and repeat


.

[arlwx12]

So far, so good.

For warmistas in the DC heat island.

Please have your shovels on standby if Febbbsry materializes.

[jayyy]

I would sign up for this is a heartbeat. It gives me 6-7”.

Indeed. I’d take that pink shading and run with it


.

[WesternFringe]

21 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Just got back from the gym how are the trends?

Current trend is telling the thread how much the latest model gets you in your own backyard.

eta:  looks about 9” for me!  Lol

[87storms]

Looks great to me!  WB 18Z GFS

This feels like one of those storms where Rockville could get a few inches while dc is mixing. Darnestown/Germantown is also another snow magnet that seems to do significantly better than Rockville…at least back in the day. I’m still learning about Frederick, but maybe this is the storm where I finally benefit from this move in the snow department.

[DeeDeeHCue]

GFS came back like it "forgot" Howard County in the previous run

[stormy]

18 z GFS focuses heavier qp to inland areas. That makes the difference with snowfall totals. 

[TinGTown]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

for those that want to feel better, or worse, for a few hours 

Hello PSU!  I have a question for you.  Thousands of kids are driving to State College from the DMV and surrounding areas this weekend.  What is you take for State College and the surrounding areas for snowfall amounts and driving conditions Sunday?  

Breezewood is almost the half way point from DC to State College and even during fall days the fog on 70 )at the upper elevations) gives almost zero visibility.  I can't imagine the fog and snow combined.

Thanks for your help!  I appreciate it.  

[eddygeeme]

3 minutes ago, 87storms said:

This feels like one of those storms where Rockville could get a few inches while dc is mixing. Darnestown/Germantown is also another snow magnet that seems to do significantly better than Rockville…at least back in the day. I’m still learning about Frederick, but maybe this is the storm where I finally benefit from this move in the snow department.

Indeed the last change over event here in Germantown we overperformed I live off exit 16 by Clarksburg and heading up to Damascus. We got 2inches out of what was suppose to be just over a trace. Been living at this location for 8 yrs and it "feels" like one of those situations. 

[snowfan]

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

lol nice self portrait. 

[CAPE]

17 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Looks great to me!  WB 18Z GFS

You were just moaning about how bad the models are. Purely emotional reaction based on desired outcome. Just like I said lol.

[snowfan]

4 minutes ago, TinGTown said:

Hello PSU!  I have a question for you.  Thousands of kids are driving to State College from the DMV and surrounding areas this weekend.  What is you take for State College and the surrounding areas for snowfall amounts and driving conditions Sunday?  

Breezewood is almost the half way point from DC to State College and even during fall days the fog on 70 )at the upper elevations) gives almost zero visibility.  I can't imagine the fog and snow combined.

Thanks for your help!  I appreciate it.  

This is more banter, but….

i make the drive to PSU regularly throughout the year and for the last 25 years. Roads on Sunday will largely be fine. Your usual icy spots, but there shouldn’t be any major issues on the primary roads. 

[str8liner]

4 minutes ago, TinGTown said:

Hello PSU!  I have a question for you.  Thousands of kids are driving to State College from the DMV and surrounding areas this weekend.  What is you take for State College and the surrounding areas for snowfall amounts and driving conditions Sunday?  

Breezewood is almost the half way point from DC to State College and even during fall days the fog on 70 )at the upper elevations) gives almost zero visibility.  I can't imagine the fog and snow combined.

Thanks for your help!  I appreciate it.  

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/breezewood/15533/weather-forecast/2215530

 

I live close to Breezewood and if we get 6-10 like that Accuweather forecast is predicting you do not want to be on the Turnpike or 70 Saturday. They meet at Breezewood. If it gets bad enough the Turnpike gets shut down, and Town Hill Mountain on 70 coming up from DC gets bad.  I99, that is near me too is also bad for wecks during snowstorms. Many use 99 to go to State College from here.

[stormy]

7 minutes ago, snowfan said:

This is more banter, but….

i make the drive to PSU regularly throughout the year and for the last 25 years. Roads on Sunday will largely be fine. Your usual icy spots, but there shouldn’t be any major issues on the primary roads. 

That should be "primary highways".................... Only secondaries are "roads"..... education is priceless.

[BlizzardNole]

29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

for those that want to feel better, or worse, for a few hours 

My gosh look at that gradient over just the 23 miles between Damascus at the top of Mont Co and Silver Spring!

[WEATHER53]

So they will oscillate  20-30 miles rest  of the way . I’m hoping by Friday 3pm ish that we can see what’s happening, For now just roll with the 6 hour . 

is that realistic time to be able to identify on Friday ?

 

[Terpeast]

Happy to see the HH GFS, but kinda hard to get too invested when models can't even agree on what kind of storm this is going to be... or if there is even going to be one.

[das]

22 minutes ago, eddygeeme said:

Indeed the last change over event here in Germantown we overperformed I live off exit 16 by Clarksburg and heading up to Damascus. We got 2inches out of what was suppose to be just over a trace. Been living at this location for 8 yrs and it "feels" like one of those situations. 

This is indeed the type of setup where Parrs Ridge typically does well. 
 

Edited to add:  Those low level ESE and E winds advecting moisture in combined with the upglide can really wring things out on a front end thump like that at Parrs Ridge. Take a look at PSU’s post here.  Good rationale there as well. 

[eddygeeme]

7 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

My gosh look at that gradient over just the 23 miles between Damascus at the top of Mont Co and Silver Spring!

You always want to be on the gradient line I always heard someone will get the thump or the shaft. Hopefully with rates there is more thump for a lot more areas. Pray for chillier temps to hold. Watching the thermals with this  will be key. I'll be watching like a hawk starting Friday afternoon to see how cool temps get and how fast cloud cover rolls in Saturday morning.

[WesternFringe]

7 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Happy to see the HH GFS, but kinda hard to get too invested when models can't even agree on what kind of storm this is going to be... or if there is even going to be one.

It really has been a difficult storm for the ops and the mesos to nail down specifics like thermals.  

On the other hand, it seems the ensembles did well, since we have been tracking this specific sw for about 2 weeks now?  Pretty impressive on their part.

It struck me this week that all of my coworkers have been and are aware of this possible winter threat from 5-7 days out. A lot of progress has been made from times in the 1960s when meteorologists would say light snow tomorrow in Staunton followed by 20+” the next day (in-law family stories)

[Ji]

Looks great to me!  WB 18Z GFS

Psu just posted that map

[WinterWxLuvr]

12 minutes ago, stormy said:

That should be "primary highways".................... Only secondaries are "roads"..... education is priceless.

You might want to step away for a bit

[87storms]

27 minutes ago, eddygeeme said:

Indeed the last change over event here in Germantown we overperformed I live off exit 16 by Clarksburg and heading up to Damascus. We got 2inches out of what was suppose to be just over a trace. Been living at this location for 8 yrs and it "feels" like one of those situations. 

Oh yea, it's a thing.  That area is a microclimate.

[psuhoffman]

29 minutes ago, TinGTown said:

Hello PSU!  I have a question for you.  Thousands of kids are driving to State College from the DMV and surrounding areas this weekend.  What is you take for State College and the surrounding areas for snowfall amounts and driving conditions Sunday?  

Breezewood is almost the half way point from DC to State College and even during fall days the fog on 70 )at the upper elevations) gives almost zero visibility.  I can't imagine the fog and snow combined.

Thanks for your help!  I appreciate it.  

Snow should be gone by Sunday. They get the roads clear fast. 70 and 99 should be ok. I drove to PSU from DMV in snow several times and had no problems. But I use common sense like slow down when it’s icy. 

[stormy]

An observation tells me we are still in the game for Saturday though some are giving up.

24 hours ago my 3 model blend for Augusta was 7 inches.

Now, that same GFS, ECM and GEM blend is 7.3 inches.

As I said 24 hours ago.................. These models will hone in on a solution by tomorrow afternoon.

It will not be a human solution,  it will be the models.   

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 minutes ago, stormy said:

An observation tells me we are still in the game for Saturday though some are giving up.

24 hours ago my 3 model blend for Augusta was 7 inches.

Now, that same GFS, ECM and GEM blend is 7.3 inches.

As I said 24 hours ago.................. These models will hone in on a solution by tomorrow afternoon.

It will not be a human solution,  it will be the models.   

 

See what I mean?