January 6-7 Storm Discussion: we’re due?

[jayyy]

We are at nearly optimal range for a completely unrealistic NAM'ing tho

That’s what the 0z NAM at range is good for


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[WxUSAF]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea, but isn't that what partially is responsible for the very heavy precip under that trough?  The GFS hints at it too but its colder so its ok.  But if the Euro is right about the warmer thermals overall, not sure what the win path is there.  No trough, no heavier precip, trough, warmer.  What are we rooting for there?  I guess just the colder GFS thermals to be correct? 

I guess. I think by 0z or 12z tomorrow the synoptic details are down to noise level changes and it just comes down to a few degrees in the 800mb to surface column. 18z is very slightly colder than 12z at 0z Sunday. Sharper temp gradient too. Still thumpy to start in the 18-21z period Saturday. 

[WEATHER53]

So let’s get this thinking about models with some more responses.

It’s being  proposed to me that models are not a weather forecast. I disagree. They are a “tool” to help forecasters devise a forecast. I disagree.  Their  programming and programmers is Not that way and they are Not 4/5/6 different model types all strung together to assist in formulating a forecast each 6 hour period. They are in fact their own prediction of what the weather will be at, for example, 18z Saturday. It’s not a clue nor hint to be strung together with other models to develop a forecast: It Is A Forecast . 

[wxmeddler]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

This one is more complicated IMO than some of the clearer examples of storms in the last 5 years or so that I am convinced we lost a 1-3 or 2-4" snow around DC due to warming temps.  Plus its not over yet, maybe things trend colder again, I was just pointing out that synoptically I don't see much other to root for than "just be colder".   Plus I am not in the mood to argue with the "don't talk about that" crew anymore.  

It's pretty clear from the depth of the warm layer that most if not all of the snow east of I-81 is going to be 8:1 slop. The depth also throws out any elevation advantages in the Piedmont out the window. Best we can hope for is rates and dynamic cooling overcome. 

[usedtobe]

27 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah quite possible. That said, if it’s borderline, still could work out. But the confluence and high shifting north don’t provide much confidence things can shift. Could also be a precip rate dependent deal. Heavier precip progs might be colder and vice versa. Things to watch. 

I think your last two sentences are correct.  We need the heavier precipitation and associated vertical motion to keep temps cold enough for snow.  Of course not for me. 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Could about walk from places with <1” to 8”. Razor thin gradient.

IMO it probably will be a pretty tight gradient in this type of evolution, which the Euro/RGEM/GFS now all show.  The bulk of the precip falls in just a few hours in an incredibly intense bad.  Once the thermals go isothermal under that band its unlikely the rain/snow line moves much.  The temps surge north as that band arrives then the dynamic cooling stalls it and that is likely where the rain snow line sets up for the duration of that period.  So if you end up on the snow side you can quickly pile up 3-6" (I think the higher totals are unlikely) where as just on the other side...womp womp.  There isn't that much precip out ahead of it and none behind it where some frontrunning snow or band on the backside could cause some consolation snow for places on the rain side during that main show.  It's all or nothing really.  

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

So let’s get this thinking about models with some more responses.

It’s being  proposed to me that models are not a weather forecast. I disagree. They are a “tool” to help forecasters devise a forecast. I disagree.  Their  programming and programmers is Not that way and they are Not 4/5/6 different model types all strung together to assist in formulating a forecast each 6 hour period. They are in fact their own prediction of what the weather will be at, for example, 18z Saturday. It’s not a clue nor hint to be strung together with other models to develop a forecast: It Is A Forecast . 

This should go somewhere else. I want some damn snow

[midatlanticweather]

That is going to hurt.. Very tight gradient.. Agree totals are bonkers. 

[jayyy]

So let’s get this thinking about models with some more responses.
It’s being  proposed to me that models are not a weather forecast. I disagree. They are a “tool” to help forecasters devise a forecast. I disagree.  Their  programming and programmers is Not that way and they are Not 4/5/6 different model types all strung together to assist in formulating a forecast each 6 hour period. They are in fact their own prediction of what the weather will be at, for example, 18z Saturday. It’s not a clue nor hint to be strung together with other models to develop a forecast: It Is A Forecast . 

You are arguing semantics. Take this “discussion” elsewhere.

[WesternFringe]

19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Could about walk from places with <1” to 8”. Razor thin gradient.

Yes, and if that lines sets up close to our backyards, we all hope it’s to our SE and we don’t have to walk to see snow.

[Ji]

6 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

That is going to hurt.. Very tight gradient.. Agree totals are bonkers. 

congrats to you sir...western Loudoun

[psuhoffman]

for those that want to feel better, or worse, for a few hours 

[WesternFringe]

26 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

So let’s get this thinking about models with some more responses.

It’s being  proposed to me that models are not a weather forecast. I disagree. They are a “tool” to help forecasters devise a forecast. I disagree.  Their  programming and programmers is Not that way and they are Not 4/5/6 different model types all strung together to assist in formulating a forecast each 6 hour period. They are in fact their own prediction of what the weather will be at, for example, 18z Saturday. It’s not a clue nor hint to be strung together with other models to develop a forecast: It Is A Forecast . 

Would you just give all the different models’ forecasts as your prediction then?  Like if you were trying to make a forecast for 5 days out?  Would you just list every possibility all the dozens of models threw out?  
 

Or would you look at the guidance, use your knowledge of weather as a human, and know your climo well enough to use the models as tools to make your own forecast?

 

 

 

 

eta: sorry @jayyy , I wouldn’t have replied if I saw your suggestion first

[stormy]

18z GFS increases my Augusta snow from 5.4 to 9.1 inches

[Weather Will]

Looks great to me!  WB 18Z GFS

[Kay]

25 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Could about walk from places with <1” to 8”. Razor thin gradient.

That does it, I'm chasing gradient.

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, stormy said:

18z GFS increases my Augusta snow from 5.4 to 9.1 inches

[Jersey Andrew]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

for those that want to feel better, or worse, for a few hours 

That could be massive disappointment for me in SW Fairfax County. I”m hoping 3-6 here.

[aldie 22]

Just got back from the gym how are the trends?

[ravensrule]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

for those that want to feel better, or worse, for a few hours 

I would sign up for this is a heartbeat. It gives me 6-7”.

[Weather Junkie]

Just now, aldie 22 said:

Just got back from the gym how are the trends?

Depends. If you were at gym for 25 hours….horrendously typical.  If you had a 20 min workout, a bit improved

[jayyy]

for those that want to feel better, or worse, for a few hours 

Here we go again… 18z ticks SE, 0z will likely tick further SE…. Rinse and repeat


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[arlwx12]

So far, so good.

For warmistas in the DC heat island.

Please have your shovels on standby if Febbbsry materializes.

[jayyy]

I would sign up for this is a heartbeat. It gives me 6-7”.

Indeed. I’d take that pink shading and run with it


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[WesternFringe]

21 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Just got back from the gym how are the trends?

Current trend is telling the thread how much the latest model gets you in your own backyard.

eta:  looks about 9” for me!  Lol

[87storms]

Looks great to me!  WB 18Z GFS

This feels like one of those storms where Rockville could get a few inches while dc is mixing. Darnestown/Germantown is also another snow magnet that seems to do significantly better than Rockville…at least back in the day. I’m still learning about Frederick, but maybe this is the storm where I finally benefit from this move in the snow department.

[DeeDeeHCue]

GFS came back like it "forgot" Howard County in the previous run

[stormy]

18 z GFS focuses heavier qp to inland areas. That makes the difference with snowfall totals. 

[TinGTown]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

for those that want to feel better, or worse, for a few hours 

Hello PSU!  I have a question for you.  Thousands of kids are driving to State College from the DMV and surrounding areas this weekend.  What is you take for State College and the surrounding areas for snowfall amounts and driving conditions Sunday?  

Breezewood is almost the half way point from DC to State College and even during fall days the fog on 70 )at the upper elevations) gives almost zero visibility.  I can't imagine the fog and snow combined.

Thanks for your help!  I appreciate it.  

[eddygeeme]

3 minutes ago, 87storms said:

This feels like one of those storms where Rockville could get a few inches while dc is mixing. Darnestown/Germantown is also another snow magnet that seems to do significantly better than Rockville…at least back in the day. I’m still learning about Frederick, but maybe this is the storm where I finally benefit from this move in the snow department.

Indeed the last change over event here in Germantown we overperformed I live off exit 16 by Clarksburg and heading up to Damascus. We got 2inches out of what was suppose to be just over a trace. Been living at this location for 8 yrs and it "feels" like one of those situations.