January 6-7 Storm Discussion: we’re due?

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

18z NAM actually is better lol. Looks a bit colder - might be picking up on at least some light WAA snows as the system moves in too.

Falls apart really fast. Mountains will hate it. But likely better for DC. 

"South and very weak" scenario.

Can we take the colder airmass on the NAM and apply it to the euro precip?  

[SnowDreamer]

Just now, notvirga! said:

Aren’t we like 24 hours away from the nams even being remotely accurate? 

We are at nearly optimal range for a completely unrealistic NAM'ing tho

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Can we take the colder airmass on the NAM and apply it to the euro precip?  

[Paleocene]

Just now, SnowDreamer said:

We are at nearly optimal range for a completely unrealistic NAM'ing tho

[jaydreb]

13 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

it's pathetic... it's almost beautiful. I-95 jackpot though and "colder" 

Short Pump jackpot?

[Jebman]

3 hours ago, aldie 22 said:

I was living in Woodbridge at the time and recall seeing on the news that Leesburg was getting hammered with snow while it was pouring rain at my house. On that day Leesburg 04 was born

You needed to have a screen name Woodbridge 04

You understand  how bad Woodbridge  is in many snowstorms. 

[konksw]

i95 special 

[DDweatherman]

22 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

18z NAM actually is better lol. Looks a bit colder - might be picking up on at least some light WAA snows as the system moves in too.

Falls apart really fast. Mountains will hate it. But likely better for DC. 

"South and very weak" scenario.

Good to see your ability to analyze a model has improved. It's best to just not analyze the LR NAM, if we took that approach, you could have saved some face there. Short Pump jackpot. 

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

Good to see your ability to analyze a model has improved. It's best to just not analyze the LR NAM, if we took that approach, you could have saved some face there. Short Pump jackpot. 

it improved from 12z for MBY 

[Jebman]

10 minutes ago, Warm Nose said:

You might have better odds playing Craps. At CharlesTown Races and Slots. They have ~500 foot elev AND very far north and west. I know. They tend to get snow many times when Dale City is a sullen gray depressing hard rain.

[WinterWxLuvr]

48 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

On the Lwx forecast discussion they discussed better sampling later tonight as the second shortwave comes on shore on the west coast. Sounded like they expected more model agreement late tonight/ Tomorrow as the shortwaves are both over land. 

Kind of funny to read that. I thought that was an old weenie fable when things don't look great. 

It’s not a fable. In fact, it’s idiotic to think that updated data won’t affect a model output.

[WinterWxLuvr]

17 minutes ago, notvirga! said:

Aren’t we like 24 hours away from the nams even being remotely accurate? 

72

[NorthArlington101]

RGEM holds for I-81 and other favored spots but the RA/SN line jumped NW

[WEATHER53]

29 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

18Z NAM even have any precip? These models are all over the place

Because they were created and are maintained to show examples rather than a statistically dominant outcome. 

[Heisy]

RGEM holds for I-81 and other favored spots but the RA/SN line jumped NW

Yea it’s a toaster bath for dc-Philly etc. Think the inch less streak continues unfortunately.


.

[Weather Will]

WB NAM v. Can. pretty stark differences, forget the rain/ snow line.

[dallen7908]

Regional models are very difficult to initialize and obtain boundary conditions for.  They shouldn't be looked at in a vacuum.  They are best when used as an ensemble member. 

[wxmeddler]

I "like" the RGEM take on things, probably a bit too wet but good representation of what we're thermally dealing with.

[WEATHER53]

In last 24-36 hours I’ve seen 0.5” for Kemp Mill and 11”. This is the mire of status quoof models. In 2024 it’s not good science and not good weather forecasting. It Is Excellent for discussing most every possible outcome during a two day time frame every six hours presentations 

[psuhoffman]

Just now, WEATHER53 said:

In last 24-36 hours I’ve seen 0.5” for Kemp Mill and 11”. This is the mire of status quoof models. In 2024 it’s not good science and not good weather forecasting. It Is Excellent for discussing most every possible outcome during a two day time frame every six hours presentations 

A model output isn't a forecast.  It's a tool to be used to make a forecast.  

[WEATHER53]

Just now, WEATHER53 said:

In last 24-36 hours I’ve seen 0.5” for Kemp Mill and 11”. This is the mire of status quo models. In 2024 it’s not good science and not good weather forecasting. It Is Excellent for discussing most every possible outcome during a two day time frame every six hours presentations 

 

[Weather Will]

It is actually pretty sad that the models are so bad inside 3 days in 2024.  Again, not talking about nailing rain/ snow line yet but the general intensity of the storm.

[Wxtrix]

i’ll enjoy these point and clicks while they last:

Snow likely before 1pm, then snow, possibly mixed with rain. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 35. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Saturday Night

Snow likely, mainly before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

[WEATHER53]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

A model output isn't a forecast.  It's a tool to be used to make a forecast.  

See that’s the evasive jibber jabber that helps models stay incompetent

You are un successfully trying to parse  that each 6 hour presentation is not indicative of upcoming weather but rather a “tool” Tool of what and for what? Why predicting forthcoming weather of course, see tool and Kaos  get thrown around during deflections 

[Chris78]

22 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

It’s not a fable. In fact, it’s idiotic to think that updated data won’t affect a model output.

Obviously updated data helps accuracy. 

I didn't realize that over land vs over ocean makes that big of a difference with  technology these days...

[psuhoffman]

@WxUSAF @Terpeast

I'm not too worried about the too amped or sheared out options.  I think it will end up with the more favorable in between solution.  But I am concerned the thermals might bleed the wrong way anyways and even with the more favorable track/intensity it just ends up too warm.  

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

It is actually pretty sad that the models are so bad inside 3 days in 2024.  Again, not talking about nailing rain/ snow line yet but the general intensity of the storm.

Not that uncommon in certain synoptic setups. There is always uncertainty, thus why we rely on the ensembles to quantify it. The general idea for this event has been nailed for days. Emotional people who are rooting for a very specific outcome often complain that the models are 'bad'.

[clskinsfan]

The GEM's have been the most consistent models. Now they could be consistently wrong. But they have basically been rock solid on their depiction. 

[WxUSAF]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@WxUSAF @Terpeast

I'm not too worried about the too amped or sheared out options.  I think it will end up with the more favorable in between solution.  But I am concerned the thermals might bleed the wrong way anyways and even with the more favorable track/intensity it just ends up too warm.  

Yeah quite possible. That said, if it’s borderline, still could work out. But the confluence and high shifting north don’t provide much confidence things can shift. Could also be a precip rate dependent deal. Heavier precip progs might be colder and vice versa. Things to watch. 

[Yeoman]

8 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

It is actually pretty sad that the models are so bad inside 3 days in 2024.  

Please remember that when you incessantly post day 15 clown maps