jayyy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 i think it's one of those things where it's better now than it used to be - but there are better sampling capabilities on land for sure. If that kind of thing didn't matter for forecasting still you wouldn't have RAOB balloon launches or anything, I'd imagineI was mostly being sarcastic there. It definitely makes logical sense that having better / more recent data is helpful in nailing down the details, especially when you’re living on the margins like we are. Hopefully when all the players are on the “field” we see models tick back in our direction a bit (00z tonight will be very telling IMO) The differences in evolution between my area seeing 1-2” and 6-8” are very minute, so anything’s really possible at this point. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 CLASSIC surface level setup for an HECS on NAM. Got your three low pressure systems (triangle defense) chasing two weak highs off the continentDid you say HECS? Lmao. Come on now. . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 ok this is just funny now. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: 18z NAM actually is better lol. Looks a bit colder - might be picking up on at least some light WAA snows as the system moves in too. Falls apart really fast. Mountains will hate it. But likely better for DC. "South and very weak" scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 it's pathetic... it's almost beautiful. I-95 jackpot though and "colder" 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 18Z NAM even have any precip? These models are all over the place 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Nam says what storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 The 18z NAM is essentially a frontal wave. That was pretty pathetic . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said: 18Z NAM even have any precip? The NAM has been bone dry so far. Significant outlier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Wow, that's a really flat wave from the NAM. Way outside the consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, LeesburgWx said: 18Z NAM even have any precip? 3 flakes and a single sleet pellet, final offer! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I can see the LWX office going “wtf.. let’s call the New Mexico office to get a damn balloon up there” 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 18Z NAM even have any precip? These models are all over the placeThat’s honestly the reason why I’m not sold on any given outcome for I-95 and points WNW. Snow totals range from 0.5 to 8+” IMBY depending on the model you believe and we’re only 4ish days out. Shit, we might as well dust off the JMA for this one. What other solutions can we throw at the wall at this point… . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, paulythegun said: ok this is just funny now. NE MD pummeled 1 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 NE MD pummeledHoCo MoCo death flurry band . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 NAM is like the best run I’ve seen in 2 days… actually gets snow down here in Richmond. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Aren’t we like 24 hours away from the nams even being remotely accurate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 10 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 18z NAM actually is better lol. Looks a bit colder - might be picking up on at least some light WAA snows as the system moves in too. Falls apart really fast. Mountains will hate it. But likely better for DC. "South and very weak" scenario. Can we take the colder airmass on the NAM and apply it to the euro precip? 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, notvirga! said: Aren’t we like 24 hours away from the nams even being remotely accurate? We are at nearly optimal range for a completely unrealistic NAM'ing tho 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, psuhoffman said: Can we take the colder airmass on the NAM and apply it to the euro precip? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, SnowDreamer said: We are at nearly optimal range for a completely unrealistic NAM'ing tho 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 13 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: it's pathetic... it's almost beautiful. I-95 jackpot though and "colder" Short Pump jackpot? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 hours ago, aldie 22 said: I was living in Woodbridge at the time and recall seeing on the news that Leesburg was getting hammered with snow while it was pouring rain at my house. On that day Leesburg 04 was born You needed to have a screen name Woodbridge 04 You understand how bad Woodbridge is in many snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 i95 special 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 22 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 18z NAM actually is better lol. Looks a bit colder - might be picking up on at least some light WAA snows as the system moves in too. Falls apart really fast. Mountains will hate it. But likely better for DC. "South and very weak" scenario. Good to see your ability to analyze a model has improved. It's best to just not analyze the LR NAM, if we took that approach, you could have saved some face there. Short Pump jackpot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: Good to see your ability to analyze a model has improved. It's best to just not analyze the LR NAM, if we took that approach, you could have saved some face there. Short Pump jackpot. it improved from 12z for MBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 10 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: You might have better odds playing Craps. At CharlesTown Races and Slots. They have ~500 foot elev AND very far north and west. I know. They tend to get snow many times when Dale City is a sullen gray depressing hard rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 48 minutes ago, Chris78 said: On the Lwx forecast discussion they discussed better sampling later tonight as the second shortwave comes on shore on the west coast. Sounded like they expected more model agreement late tonight/ Tomorrow as the shortwaves are both over land. Kind of funny to read that. I thought that was an old weenie fable when things don't look great. It’s not a fable. In fact, it’s idiotic to think that updated data won’t affect a model output. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 17 minutes ago, notvirga! said: Aren’t we like 24 hours away from the nams even being remotely accurate? 72 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 RGEM holds for I-81 and other favored spots but the RA/SN line jumped NW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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