Eskimo Joe Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 Rayno 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 Final update on the probability time series at DCA. As you know this doesn't mean that DCA has a 60% chances of an inch or more of snow; typically 1" from the model corresponds to a few tenths in ground truth under marginal conditions. The 3" probability curve may better represent the chances of an inch or more of snow. In answer to someone's question from yesterday, I only did this for a location near DCA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On the Lwx forecast discussion they discussed better sampling later tonight as the second shortwave comes on shore on the west coast. Sounded like they expected more model agreement late tonight/ Tomorrow as the shortwaves are both over land. Kind of funny to read that. I thought that was an old weenie fable when things don't look great. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 Yeah, that’s why I was cautiously optimistic as the run developed. Then it just pushes warm air north with that trough. Maybe it’s real, maybe a fluke. Talk about a nailbiter. The smallest adjustments in LP track, LP strength, HP position / strength (confluence) drastically change our areas outcome from run to run. Models did a great job overall with the synoptic setup at range, but they are struggling with the minute details. Would be badass to score a coup within 72 hours but we may be a bit too early in this pattern. If we had this back and forth going on a week later, I’d def feel better about our chances. If 00z looks colder again tonight, this board is going to have some severe whiplash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On the Lwx forecast discussion they discussed better sampling later tonight as the second shortwave comes on shore on the west coast. Sounded like they expected more model agreement late tonight/ Tomorrow as the shortwaves are both over land. Kind of funny to read that. I thought that was an old weenie fable when things don't look great. Thought the better sampling aspect was a debunked theory… guess not. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 1 minute ago, jayyy said: Thought the better sampling aspect was a debunked theory… guess not. . i think it's one of those things where it's better now than it used to be - but there are better sampling capabilities on land for sure. If that kind of thing didn't matter for forecasting still you wouldn't have RAOB balloon launches or anything, I'd imagine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 Come on NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 CLASSIC surface level setup for an HECS on NAM. Got your three low pressure systems (triangle defense) chasing two weak highs off the continent 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: EPS 6z v 12z. mostly its tightening up the edges and pinning down where that band will be. Unfortunately 95 is right on the edge and might end up on the wrong side. It probably will. This is a N MoCo / Carroll and west event. Will probably even get tricky with RA/SN in the lower elevations the Monocacy River Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 18z NAM actually is better lol. Looks a bit colder - might be picking up on at least some light WAA snows as the system moves in too. Falls apart really fast. Mountains will hate it. But likely better for DC. "South and very weak" scenario. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 i think it's one of those things where it's better now than it used to be - but there are better sampling capabilities on land for sure. If that kind of thing didn't matter for forecasting still you wouldn't have RAOB balloon launches or anything, I'd imagineI was mostly being sarcastic there. It definitely makes logical sense that having better / more recent data is helpful in nailing down the details, especially when you’re living on the margins like we are. Hopefully when all the players are on the “field” we see models tick back in our direction a bit (00z tonight will be very telling IMO) The differences in evolution between my area seeing 1-2” and 6-8” are very minute, so anything’s really possible at this point. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 CLASSIC surface level setup for an HECS on NAM. Got your three low pressure systems (triangle defense) chasing two weak highs off the continentDid you say HECS? Lmao. Come on now. . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 ok this is just funny now. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: 18z NAM actually is better lol. Looks a bit colder - might be picking up on at least some light WAA snows as the system moves in too. Falls apart really fast. Mountains will hate it. But likely better for DC. "South and very weak" scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 it's pathetic... it's almost beautiful. I-95 jackpot though and "colder" 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 18Z NAM even have any precip? These models are all over the place 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 Nam says what storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 The 18z NAM is essentially a frontal wave. That was pretty pathetic . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said: 18Z NAM even have any precip? The NAM has been bone dry so far. Significant outlier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 Wow, that's a really flat wave from the NAM. Way outside the consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 Just now, LeesburgWx said: 18Z NAM even have any precip? 3 flakes and a single sleet pellet, final offer! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 I can see the LWX office going “wtf.. let’s call the New Mexico office to get a damn balloon up there” 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 18Z NAM even have any precip? These models are all over the placeThat’s honestly the reason why I’m not sold on any given outcome for I-95 and points WNW. Snow totals range from 0.5 to 8+” IMBY depending on the model you believe and we’re only 4ish days out. Shit, we might as well dust off the JMA for this one. What other solutions can we throw at the wall at this point… . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 3 minutes ago, paulythegun said: ok this is just funny now. NE MD pummeled 1 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 NE MD pummeledHoCo MoCo death flurry band . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 NAM is like the best run I’ve seen in 2 days… actually gets snow down here in Richmond. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 Aren’t we like 24 hours away from the nams even being remotely accurate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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