Heisy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 ORH finds a way to jackpot, that’s cool. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 925 temps at DCA at 00z: +5 or +6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Its like a 4 hour snow here. You misspelled 'mix' 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 That is awesome. This is a pretty good took that has the whole country if you want to waste a lot of time. https://en-us.topographic-map.com/map-hqf3/Baltimore/?center=39.43478%2C-77.33712&zoom=9That’s a sweet tool for sure. Also, it’s in meters incase anyone overlooked that part. My old house in west EC was apparently around 320 feet elevation (higher than I thought tbh). My house in union bridge is at 469ft. Not too shabby. Man. This is gonna be a nailbiter. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wtkidz Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 20 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Some of us live there and don’t want anything to do with further south and east. Just sayin .. I understand and was just expressing my thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, MN Transplant said: 925 temps at DCA at 00z: +5 or +6 850s bad for almost everyone, surface toasty unless you are in the mountains or along I-95. Gets worse and worse the more you look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 As long as it’s wrong, let’s not forget for folks even close in to 95, there are several models that do have a lot better outcome than the Euro. Small pieces of the puzzle in evolution will have big impacts. Little bit of a model war could be breaking out with how these pieces are handled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: Nasty gradient... 10" in NW Arlington, 3" in SE. It's also still ripping at this point in DC. I can’t say it’s never happened but Camp Springs getting 1” and Rockville 11” is a 50-1 shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 In all honesty it looks a lot like the NAM. Go figure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, clskinsfan said: In all honesty it looks a lot like the NAM. Go figure. The ole EE rule better not come to fruition. Let’s hope it’s as wrong as the NAM normally is at these lead times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Bad run but it's not the least bit surprising, there is no cold air available so it makes sense that this is a situation for central PA and the catskills to jackpot in. Saturday morning temps are gonna be like 30 degrees in Pittsburgh, if it's barely below freezing that far NW of here you know the depth of the cold isn't going to be sufficient for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: In all honesty it looks a lot like the NAM. Go figure. The NAM is really dry and weak. The Euro is 8mb deeper and wetter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 this isnt the old euro...usually when its by itself..it ends up migrating towards the other models. It may take some time to do it but thats what ive noticed recently 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: flips back to snow at the end but not nearly as good as other models - tough sledding in D.C (literally) looking at the thermals I don't see how that is correct. There are warm layers everywhere during the whole event. I would be shocked IF the euro is right if anyone east of the BR got more than an inch or two at most. It's not all that dissimilar from the GGEM just warmer. One reason its warmer is the coastal is way less of a defined feature initially until it gets to our latitude. It's more just a wave along an inverted trough with a southerly flow up into our area at the mid levels. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Still considering a short chase to Gettysburg or Harpers Ferry area. Only if it's all snow and 5"+. Looks like a decent bet rn. Otherwise I'll just stay here and enjoy yet another heavy rain event lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 when the euro was better....it had a much better surface low. The high dosent seem very different than 2 days ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: looking at the thermals I don't see how that is correct. There are warm layers everywhere during the whole event. I would be shocked IF the euro is right if anyone east of the BR got more than an inch or two at most. It's not all that dissimilar from the GGEM just warmer. One reason its warmer is the coastal is way less of a defined feature initially until it gets to our latitude. It's more just a wave along an inverted trough with a southerly flow up into our area at the mid levels. This is probably closer to what the outcome would be for that run. Norther + elevation ftw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: looking at the thermals I don't see how that is correct. There are warm layers everywhere during the whole event. I would be shocked IF the euro is right if anyone east of the BR got more than an inch or two at most. It's not all that dissimilar from the GGEM just warmer. One reason its warmer is the coastal is way less of a defined feature initially until it gets to our latitude. It's more just a wave along an inverted trough with a southerly flow up into our area at the mid levels. That inverted trough (trowal maybe?) is sort of the killer. Not sure how real that feature is. I actually though euro looked decent/good before it got to us. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Not to be a deb but honeslty the Kuchera map is closer to what I expect based on the thermals. The 10-1 is messed up and counting snow when there are some pretty dubious thermals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: Still considering a short chase to Gettysburg or Harpers Ferry area. Only if it's all snow and 5"+. Looks like a decent bet rn. Otherwise I'll just stay here and enjoy yet another heavy rain event lol. I am supposed to be seeing Aaron Lewis at the Charles Town track on Saturday night. I was worried about it getting cancelled. Not so sure anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: Still considering a short chase to Gettysburg or Harpers Ferry area. Only if it's all snow and 5"+. Looks like a decent bet rn. Otherwise I'll just stay here and enjoy yet another heavy rain event lol. Might be able to drive in and drive out in the same day... hotel room not even needed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, clskinsfan said: I am supposed to be seeing Aaron Lewis at the Charles Town track on Saturday night. I was worried about it getting cancelled. Not so sure anymore. If I decide to go, I am leaning towards S PA at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Might be able to drive in and drive out in the same day... hotel room not even needed Kinda looking that way. I would stay though esp if its Gettysburg. Great place to hang out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Kinda looking that way. I would stay though esp if its Gettysburg. Great place to hang out. It sure is, just 15 mins from me. Lots of good food and good beverages. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 21 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Kind of wishing for something at this point that doesn’t want to come to fruition. Congrats to people like @WxWatcher007 and @clskinsfan and folks up that way. @mappyyoull prolly end up good side of things too. Nobody here wants to hear it but this one is far from settled even up here. I sincerely hope this is one where everyone from DC up to here can get a break. It’s been historically awful for us all and it’s time to end it. Good luck. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: 850s are sooooo close, but surface temps are shot. That said, UKIE thermals are lol. Cville is placed into an isolated freezer with the 6" of snow it gets this run 15 on skyline dr and 35 and rain at DCA. Don’t think so 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 31 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Sounds like it pulled option A 14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: That inverted trough (trowal maybe?) is sort of the killer. Not sure how real that feature is. I actually though euro looked decent/good before it got to us. I don’t know how to categorize it. There is no primary really. It’s nearly identical to the gfs. Better high heading in. More confluence. Same exact slp track. 1-2 mb deeper as it passes us. There is a bit more of that inverted feature. That seems to jump the thermals quick right over us. But maybe in the end it’s just a few degrees warmer and that makes a huge difference here. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Waffling time as no big location placements to mess with By Friday noon I’ll be going over my checklist High 1025-1030 and within 150 miles of southern tip of Hudson/James Low not moving north of VA/NC border and staying at 1000 and not lower. Overnight lows Friday 27- 30 and dew points in the wee hours Saturday 20-23. onset time not optimal so need cloudy skies by 7-8am Saturday which should keep DCA around 35 at onset time but will get a 3-5 degree drop with steady precip Pittsburgh colder or as cold as Boston 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Eps probably come in better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Eps probably come in betterI mean it’s not as bad as the OP, but it certainly pushed everything NW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now