WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2024 Author Share Posted January 3, 2024 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: looking at the thermals I don't see how that is correct. There are warm layers everywhere during the whole event. I would be shocked IF the euro is right if anyone east of the BR got more than an inch or two at most. It's not all that dissimilar from the GGEM just warmer. One reason its warmer is the coastal is way less of a defined feature initially until it gets to our latitude. It's more just a wave along an inverted trough with a southerly flow up into our area at the mid levels. That inverted trough (trowal maybe?) is sort of the killer. Not sure how real that feature is. I actually though euro looked decent/good before it got to us. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 Not to be a deb but honeslty the Kuchera map is closer to what I expect based on the thermals. The 10-1 is messed up and counting snow when there are some pretty dubious thermals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: Still considering a short chase to Gettysburg or Harpers Ferry area. Only if it's all snow and 5"+. Looks like a decent bet rn. Otherwise I'll just stay here and enjoy yet another heavy rain event lol. I am supposed to be seeing Aaron Lewis at the Charles Town track on Saturday night. I was worried about it getting cancelled. Not so sure anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: Still considering a short chase to Gettysburg or Harpers Ferry area. Only if it's all snow and 5"+. Looks like a decent bet rn. Otherwise I'll just stay here and enjoy yet another heavy rain event lol. Might be able to drive in and drive out in the same day... hotel room not even needed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 Just now, clskinsfan said: I am supposed to be seeing Aaron Lewis at the Charles Town track on Saturday night. I was worried about it getting cancelled. Not so sure anymore. If I decide to go, I am leaning towards S PA at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Might be able to drive in and drive out in the same day... hotel room not even needed Kinda looking that way. I would stay though esp if its Gettysburg. Great place to hang out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Kinda looking that way. I would stay though esp if its Gettysburg. Great place to hang out. It sure is, just 15 mins from me. Lots of good food and good beverages. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 21 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Kind of wishing for something at this point that doesn’t want to come to fruition. Congrats to people like @WxWatcher007 and @clskinsfan and folks up that way. @mappyyoull prolly end up good side of things too. Nobody here wants to hear it but this one is far from settled even up here. I sincerely hope this is one where everyone from DC up to here can get a break. It’s been historically awful for us all and it’s time to end it. Good luck. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: 850s are sooooo close, but surface temps are shot. That said, UKIE thermals are lol. Cville is placed into an isolated freezer with the 6" of snow it gets this run 15 on skyline dr and 35 and rain at DCA. Don’t think so 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 31 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Sounds like it pulled option A 14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: That inverted trough (trowal maybe?) is sort of the killer. Not sure how real that feature is. I actually though euro looked decent/good before it got to us. I don’t know how to categorize it. There is no primary really. It’s nearly identical to the gfs. Better high heading in. More confluence. Same exact slp track. 1-2 mb deeper as it passes us. There is a bit more of that inverted feature. That seems to jump the thermals quick right over us. But maybe in the end it’s just a few degrees warmer and that makes a huge difference here. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 Waffling time as no big location placements to mess with By Friday noon I’ll be going over my checklist High 1025-1030 and within 150 miles of southern tip of Hudson/James Low not moving north of VA/NC border and staying at 1000 and not lower. Overnight lows Friday 27- 30 and dew points in the wee hours Saturday 20-23. onset time not optimal so need cloudy skies by 7-8am Saturday which should keep DCA around 35 at onset time but will get a 3-5 degree drop with steady precip Pittsburgh colder or as cold as Boston 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 Eps probably come in better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 Eps probably come in betterI mean it’s not as bad as the OP, but it certainly pushed everything NW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Eps probably come in better worse on the fringes (metros). Better for favored zones and those who might get tempted to chase out that way 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 Just now, Heisy said: I mean it’s not as bad as the OP, but it certainly pushed everything NW . I can’t remember 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 also, fwiw, the 10th percentile on the EPS. you'd like to think this is the (10:1) floor w/ where things stand... but you never know. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 Is this going to be another day (like yesterday) where 6z & 12z look blah and things trend better at 18z and 00z? Or is this the start of a sustained trend for the worse? 18z and especially 00z will be very telling. If they continue the negative trend, then many of us are in pretty rough shape - even up my way. If models bounce back in our direction, we’re still in the game. Guess the only “positive” thing here is that these differences are *relatively* small from run to run. We have been very much on the margins all along, so as PSU said, being a couple of degrees warmer on certain runs is the difference maker. Even the runs that looked good (0z gfs cmc Ukie and icon from last night) it was a pretty close call with a very sharp gradient. Showed 6-10” near Baltimore but just a couple inches along the bay. That’s a razor thin margin. The good news is that mountains don’t need to be moved to get us back in the game. We don’t need huge shifts. If models are underestimating cold or the strength of the low by just a bit, we are well within the margin to bounce back. The bad news is that we are starting to run out of time here. Can’t remember the last time models had a storm, lost it, and got it back within 72-84hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 It is better overall, maybe not if you are near the border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 A graphic from the most recent capital weather gang article, this thing isn't set in stone yet, but whether we trend better or worse who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 EPS 6z v 12z. mostly its tightening up the edges and pinning down where that band will be. Unfortunately 95 is right on the edge and might end up on the wrong side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 40 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I am supposed to be seeing Aaron Lewis at the Charles Town track on Saturday night. I was worried about it getting cancelled. Not so sure anymore. sucks man, looking like you are going to have to go 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2024 Author Share Posted January 3, 2024 24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I don’t know how to categorize it. There is no primary really. It’s nearly identical to the gfs. Better high heading in. More confluence. Same exact slp track. 1-2 mb deeper as it passes us. There is a bit more of that inverted feature. That seems to jump the thermals quick right over us. But maybe in the end it’s just a few degrees warmer and that makes a huge difference here. Yeah, that’s why I was cautiously optimistic as the run developed. Then it just pushes warm air north with that trough. Maybe it’s real, maybe a fluke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It is better overall, maybe not if you are near the border But that's like 80% of this sub lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 7 minutes ago, MacChump said: sucks man, looking like you are going to have to go Staind is my favorite band so I want to go. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Staind is my favorite band so I want to go. was just kidding, glad something good coming out of this for someone lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 But that's like 80% of this sub lol Just go with the snowiest model. Don’t complicate things 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Yeah, that’s why I was cautiously optimistic as the run developed. Then it just pushes warm air north with that trough. Maybe it’s real, maybe a fluke. It was kind of doing the same thing the last few runs too. The thing is, as it was coming in, even before that feature, I was noticing its simply warmer. I was toggling between different features. Better high, more confluence, low in the same location...then I would look at the different thermals and it was simply warmer than the GFS and GGEM. Yes that trough doesn't help but there is a hint at that same feature on the GFS also, the difference might just be the GFS is a few degrees colder heading in and so we barely survive it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 This is now within 72 hours, so maybe we start looking at the ops and mesos. Hope the mesos pick up on a colder bleed down that the globals might be missing. Wishful thinking maybe, but I've seen this movie before. 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 10 minutes ago, Terpeast said: This is now within 72 hours, so maybe we start looking at the ops and mesos. Hope the mesos pick up on a colder bleed down that the globals might be missing. Wishful thinking maybe, but I've seen this movie before. 18z NAM is running as we speak. Certainly it can’t be worse. Certainly. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: But that's like 80% of this sub lol My grading criteria was very specific 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now