wtkidz Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 All should be hoping for a bit more southern and eastern track. To my uneducated eye , at the rate it is moving north and west It may only be the western side and pioints west of the blue ridge having snow. Just sayin… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 The models are not "trending" or bouncing around so much as the operationals are simply randomly popping out solutions that fall within the still existing camps if you examine their ensembles. One solution has now been completely eliminated and that was the phased amplified system with a primary into the Ohio valley. That idea is pretty much dead. But within the ensembles there are still 3 camps left. We want the middle ground. But it's well within probabilities for 2 or 3 operational models to pull a solution from the same camp (like last night) but its just random chance. The 3 camps still left A. A little too much amplitude and lingering primary and the main snow shield goes just NW of us. This is a messy one with not a lot of snow for anyone because the primary is weak, the phased amplified solution is gone. But this would take a lighter snow event up into PA. B. The in between option, GFS and GGEM op solutions from 0z and 12z. No primary at all, coastal is just amplified enough to produce a thump snow targeting just NW of the fall line C. A weak sheared out mess with no significant snow anywhere. This solution might target DC south with the best qpf but it won't work with the marginal temps. The 6z EPS took a move towards Camp B but there was still a mix of all 3. GEFS is still a mix of all 3. GEPS is all option A and B. I don't think the models have trended yet, they seem to still just be pulling random options from within these established goalposts run to run. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, HighStakes said: That was a really nice storm for the suburbs especially for so early in the season. I got a storm total of 12 in Reisterstown. 7 with the initial wave and about 5 from the coastal. I'm pretty sure areas just west of the beltway from Randallstown over to Ellicott City did the best with the first round with some 8-10 inch amounts. I wish I measured during that storm. It was probably similar in my location, I remember it really coming down hard in the early morning hours with a lot more snow than most were expecting. Then it changed to rain for some time. Then the overnight coastal. Probably the biggest December storm I’ve seen until 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 57 minutes ago, hstorm said: I will take this as gospel with our 340' elevation. More seriously and on topic, agree that past experience suggests a significant NW/SE FFX county gradient in NoVA. Ha, I saw that post and decided I would check my elevation since I only moved here a few years ago. Elevation map claims I am at 457 feet, which I find hard to believe. Anyway, I think this is the first storm where I could really potentially see how much my location helps vs. being along 95. I'm right off of Route 40 a few miles before it dead ends into I-70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 I’ve seen the option C in the ensemble mix (I think based on snow maps posted), but not sure any op run has pulled that out (yet). Ops seem to be switching between A and B or some blend between them. Let hope Euro can pull a B here… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 5 minutes ago, wtkidz said: All should be hoping for a bit more southern and eastern track. To my uneducated eye , at the rate it is moving north and west It may only be the western side and pioints west of the blue ridge having snow. Just sayin… Some of us live there and don’t want anything to do with further south and east. Just sayin .. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, Fozz said: I wish I measured during that storm. It was probably similar in my location, I remember it really coming down hard in the early morning hours with a lot more snow than most were expecting. Then it changed to rain for some time. Then the overnight coastal. Probably the biggest December storm I’ve seen until 2009. I went to my friends birthday party in Cockeysville/Hunt Valley the night after the storm and the snow depth was about the same as in Reisterstown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: I’ve seen the option C in the ensemble mix (I think based on snow maps posted), but not sure any op run has pulled brag out (yet). Ops seem to be switching between A and B or some blend between them. Let hope Euro can pull a B here… Another option is a bomb over the outer banks that can create a scenario of heavy snow that can overcome marginal temps. I’m hanging my hat on that one lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I’ve seen the option C in the ensemble mix (I think based on snow maps posted), but not sure any op run has pulled that out (yet). Ops seem to be switching between A and B or some blend between them. Let hope Euro can pull a B here… NAM had that solution. Ya I know the NAM lol. I think it's likely going to be something from A or B, or maybe a compromise between the two. But C is lurking if there is any additional de amplification trend in the STJ wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Another option is a bomb over the outer banks that can create a scenario of heavy snow that can overcome marginal temps. I’m hanging my hat on that one lol The CMC is our best option. Sub 1000 at the mouth of the bay is primo for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: The CMC is our best option. Sub 1000 at the mouth of the bay is primo for us. That’s basically what the Ukie was also 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Euro has slightly better confluence and High location than GFS at the same time at 63 hours...but the SW is weaker and further north. Not sure which is more important at this point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 That trend continues at 72, high is MUCH better located on the Euro than the GFS, however that might be offset by more ridging in front of the wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, psuhoffman said: That trend continues at 72, high is MUCH better located on the Euro than the GFS, however that might be offset by more ridging in front of the wave. looks very similar from a RA/SN line perspective by hr78. Gotta be west of the beltway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: looks very similar from a RA/SN line perspective by hr78. Gotta be west of the beltway actually it's worse - you are raining by 4:00pm it's kind of a disaster 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: actually it's worse - you are raining by 4:00pm When does it have precip starting? I’m still on 6z on TT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: actually it's worse - you are raining by 4:00pm it's kind of a disaster It’s only ever right when it’s by itself when it shows a bad solution. It doesn’t agree with the consensus of other models, but it isn’t what we wanted to see… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, Terpeast said: When does it have precip starting? I’m still on 6z on TT Noonish in the metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, DDweatherman said: It’s only ever right when it’s by itself when it shows a bad solution. It doesn’t agree with the consensus of other models, but it isn’t what we wanted to see… flips back to snow at the end but not nearly as good as other models - tough sledding in D.C (literally) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Noonish in the metro Sounds like it pulled option A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 This is a bad run for 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Ugly for I-95. Maybe we continue the trend of warm 12z runs cold 00z runs? We’re getting inside 4 days now though . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Its like a 4 hour snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, psuhoffman said: Next Not so sure I think the evolution up top given what we had that first 60 or so hours is going to go that way. I didn’t hate how it started but then divergence from the other model camp came post h60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: When does it have precip starting? I’m still on 6z on TT seems okay to me 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, MN Transplant said: This is a bad run for 95 Not even worth chasing - lame outcome. to echo PSU 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 This is a bad run for 95 It’s bad even for the immediate burbs of 95 and just about everyone . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Kind of wishing for something at this point that doesn’t want to come to fruition. Congrats to people like @WxWatcher007 and @clskinsfan and folks up that way. @mappyyoull prolly end up good side of things too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Next cool, see you in the next thread then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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