MN Transplant Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: WxBell maps are friendlier so I'm gonna assume they've made the right call. I'll post when it wraps. Snow maps are going to struggle on the boundary. Soundings and QPF are the way to go. I’m modestly happy with this run sitting on the western DC Beltway. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Personally, I see some room for improvement Same. It just trended back to a direction we mostly like, but we can do better. I’ll bet happy hour GooFuS improves upon this run (F what the Euro says in a few hours). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 Just now, MN Transplant said: Snow maps are going to struggle on the boundary. Soundings and QPF are the way to go. I’m modestly happy with this run sitting on the western DC Beltway. But soundings and QPF are harder to understand /s If you are in I'm in. We tend to perform similarly. I already know I'm not gonna be in D.C. for this one - question is if I hang in A-Town or if it's worth it to flee to HBurg or Staunton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 Its a 3-5/4-8 type thumper. We havent had one of those for a while. I am looking forward to it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 1 minute ago, DarkSharkWX said: cmc amazing too just NW of dc Pretty similar idea to the GFS just juiced up a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 1 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 Wasn't a bad run by any means. Certainly keeps me interested. Could have been better, could have been worse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2024 Author Share Posted January 3, 2024 3 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: cmc amazing too just NW of dc Dear lord that’s a brutal gradient. Going to be riots if that plays out. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 1 minute ago, DarkSharkWX said: CMC taking the steroids this afternoon I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 Just now, osfan24 said: Wasn't a bad run by any means. Certainly keeps me interested. Could have been better, could have been worse. Agreed, we are still alive on I-95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 1 minute ago, DarkSharkWX said: 2.4 at DCA and 10.9 at BWI would be a disaster. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 6-10 snowdepth 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 GGEM is sub 1000 at the mouth of the bay. Its beautiful. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 Razor thin line for the fall line - but in this type of setup just have to accept it. Will be a nail biter for the folks riding that line - but suspect this is going to be a "classic" elevation winner storm of the past. I sure as heck won't jackpot in the eastern half of Montgomery County - but I'm okay with where I sit...for now. If it bleeds N/W again I'll be screwed. What a terrible hobby for us to all have 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 Still in the game, but nailbitingly close. With it being so marginal, I'm mentally dividing 10:1 snow maps east of the blue ridge by half. (not that we should be looking at these snow maps anyway) Can't do much model analysis because I'm at work 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 Just now, clskinsfan said: GGEM is sub 1000 at the mouth of the bay. Its beautiful. Not for i95 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 Just now, clskinsfan said: GGEM is sub 1000 at the mouth of the bay. Its beautiful. 988 Cape May. We toss. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 10 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: GFS heavy snow through NOVA and central MD. Pummeled It all falls in like 8 hours. We better get those advertised rates. Given the marginal temps a thump scenario is our best simplest bet to get an area wide happy result. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 I hope being near the highest point in DC helps with this one. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 Just now, Kmlwx said: Razor thin line for the fall line - but in this type of setup just have to accept it. Will be a nail biter for the folks riding that line - but suspect this is going to be a "classic" elevation winner storm of the past. I sure as heck won't jackpot in the eastern half of Montgomery County - but I'm okay with where I sit...for now. If it bleeds N/W again I'll be screwed. What a terrible hobby for us to all have think GAI and westward/northward has a decent shot of plowable snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Dear lord that’s a brutal gradient. Going to be riots if that plays out. Per the CMC on TT, it f'ing pours IMBY on Saturday evening at probably 34 degrees. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 CMC would be fantastic for the favored zones and would accumulate even where it's warm on the surface if it's dumping but it's a bad run for I-95 imo. Temps at height of the storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GFS is interesting. It has a stronger vortmax in the plains and so I thought if would maybe follow 6z euro. And it does end up a bit stronger/norther, but the WAA thump is legit. You don’t get soundings like this often from the GFS. This is legit heavy snow for a few hours Saturday afternoon. This is what I'd call a "High Chance of Disappointment" Profile. Even higher elevation won't save you from the mixed bag possibility. Go west young man! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2024 Author Share Posted January 3, 2024 All the 12z guidance so far suggests the metro corridor and points N/W will really thump when the precipitation arrives. Your IMBY total will depend on ratios and how long you can hold the column. But if that GFS sounding is right, it’s puking fatties until the flip. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 Just now, mattie g said: Per the CMC on TT, it f'ing pours IMBY on Saturday evening at probably 34 degrees. 2” of rain just east of DC. I’m ignoring this one. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 For those of you that want to nailbite even more about elevation - this is the Maryland LiDAR viewer https://geodata.md.gov/topoviewer/ Cool tool if nothing else - REALLY high-res data there. I think @mappy might have been the one to post it a long while ago. For map geeks, can get lost for hours in just scrolling around. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 850 and 700 lows are N of 00z on cmc which is why 95 gets skunked a bit . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: 2” of rain just east of DC. I’m ignoring this one. Seems a *bit* overdone for such a fast mover, but man...being right on this R/S line is leaving me with few to no fingernails already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 5 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: I hope being near the highest point in DC helps with this one. On top of the monument? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 17 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: great run I don’t hate having the 8.9” value directly over my place. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now