Warm Nose Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 2 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: Curious what part of Western Loudoun are you in....is it for real Western Loudoun or Ji's version of Western Loudoun? If it's for real Western then i think your area is in a pretty good spot for this one especially Round Hill on West Just west of RH, @ 800ft on the nose... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 Can always count on RGEM or NAM to have a juicy snow output at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 1 minute ago, Paleocene said: Can always count on RGEM or NAM to have a juicy snow output at this range. Generally. Also genuinely hilarious that RGEM looked like that and the NAM had light mist for everyone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 I think the CMC uses the RGEM up to 84? So I would expect it to be absolutely ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2024 Author Share Posted January 3, 2024 Just now, clskinsfan said: I think the CMC uses the RGEM up to 84? So I would expect it to be absolutely ridiculous. Yeah they usually are pretty simpatico, so I’d expect GGEM to be similar if maybe a little tamer overall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 5 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: Just west of RH, @ 800ft on the nose... Great spot...probably my next area to move to if I stay in Nova Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 ICON is a step back at 12z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 Slightly warmer at the surface pretty much everywhere but really noticeable south. It's essentially just waffling run to run tho after the last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 Just now, winter_warlock said: Its the icon... lol Thanks! Not concerned - just saying. We'll talk about it for pages when it's good, though. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 Whoever is skirting that rain/snow line is gonna end up happy in the end. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Whoever is skirting that rain/snow line is gonna end up happy in the end. I've been on that line for virtually every model run - whether on one side or the other - for the last 36 hours. I've been on the wrong side slightly more often, so I'm more than a little twitchy. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I like your use of the median I love that WXbell finally added this to their package. I was calculating it manually for a while but that was annoying. The median and snow probabilities show a much better representation of what guidance is predicting that the skewed means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Whoever is skirting that rain/snow line is gonna end up happy in the end. I must say College Park has ended up on the winning side as far as I can remember. We've done pretty good with these setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 I'm getting wishcasty, but the decent cold push Thurs- Friday overnight should help cool down the ground to help white rain/front end thump accumulate. Below freezing down into the carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 Looks like the GFS will be a little warmer judging from the 850 temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 Light snow into DC metro area by 15z Saturday. Holds thru 18z as snow, temps in the 32-34 range along 95. This thing races through -- precip out of the area by 00z Sun 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 GFS isn’t terrible all things considered. It is so dry coming in that we get solid evaporational cooling. Precip totals are back up closer to an inch. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 North of DC raked 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 GFS heavy snow through NOVA and central MD. Pummeled It all falls in like 8 hours. We better get those advertised rates. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 great run 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 GFS is really fast. It's a thump and gone. Someone mentioned the Ravens/Vikings game snowstorm, if you can call it that. Reminds me a bit of that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 1 minute ago, DarkSharkWX said: great run Personally, I see some room for improvement 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 The 4pm sounding in DC that’s showing rain is borderline for snow which is the main difference between this and the past two runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 2 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: great run sold 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 The column is holding on for dear life from 18 to 21z in the DC area. It eventually falls, but there’s almost 0.6” precip by 21z. Ratios would suck, but it would be a few inches of snow first in this scenario. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 Just now, rjvanals said: The 4pm sounding in DC that’s showing rain is borderline for snow which is the main difference between this and the past two runs WxBell maps are friendlier so I'm gonna assume they've made the right call. I'll post when it wraps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2024 Author Share Posted January 3, 2024 GFS is interesting. It has a stronger vortmax in the plains and so I thought if would maybe follow 6z euro. And it does end up a bit stronger/norther, but the WAA thump is legit. You don’t get soundings like this often from the GFS. This is legit heavy snow for a few hours Saturday afternoon. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 1 minute ago, aldie 22 said: sold that old Leesburg04 guy would of liked this run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeDeeHCue Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 23 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Whoever is skirting that rain/snow line is gonna end up happy in the end. The Piedmont's time to shine! That glitchy block on GFS where Howard County gets screwed needs to vamoose. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 cmc amazing too just NW of dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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