WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 The gfs trend was better. I think this is just the back and forth we would expect to see. Time will tell. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 I would expect to see a lot of back and forth until we can get an actual sample from NWS, the saving grace for me in the blueridge area is the models seem to underestimate CAD so I’m hoping our temps will be lower. I’m just glad we have something to track and runs to watch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 5 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Can’t remember which model, but I picked up on weaker confluence last night. Euro 6z seems to be continuing that trend, while gfs is doing the opposite. We’ll have to see who is right about the confluence up north. Heisy was right. Upon closer look the euro went to a gem like solution. The biggest difference is the system is much less amplified. There is almost no NS interaction. The stj wave runs out ahead alone and the NS hangs back. That kills us. That NS interaction was pulling cold in tighter to the system. The track on 6z eps control and mean is better but without the NS and less confluence (I think those are related) WAA warms the thermals way ahead of the wave and the cold doesn’t wrap in behind. That isn’t a fluke on the control it showed up across the eps members. They really lost the NS interaction. Seems that’s the key here and it seems linked to the confluence. Not enough suppression and the NS doesn’t dig enough to interact with the STJ wave. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 This is the issue…weaker less dynamic system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 That's not a trend we'd want to start seeing, as many of you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Early on I thought the less amplified wave might help mitigate the thermals but we need the NS interaction. I was wrong. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Even on the GFS I see a trend towards a weaker and further east 50/50 low, thanks to the wednesday system being less amped off the coast. I’m trying to be positive, but the gfs seems to be hanging on by a thread thanks to that stout 1031 high to the north despite less cold air. Continue that trend, and this thing may slip away from us. Let’s hope things get colder in 96-48 hr lead times 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 Yeah I’ve noticed that the storm for tomorrow and Thursday has trended south and weaker. There’s probably a balance here if the same thing happens with the weekend storm. South is good for us generally, but weaker is maybe a double edged sword. Weak and north is bad because it doesn’t wrap in colder air, but maybe weaker and south balances that back out? Just speculation. Nobody should be spiking footballs or bailing on 1 run 100+ hours out. 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Yeah I’ve noticed that the storm for tomorrow and Thursday has trended south and weaker. There’s probably a balance here if the same thing happens with the weekend storm. South is good for us generally, but weaker is maybe a double edged sword. Weak and north is bad because it doesn’t wrap in colder air, but maybe weaker and south balances that back out? Just speculation. Nobody should be spiking footballs or bailing on 1 run 100+ hours out. It's a double edged sword for sure, and depends on location (as always). For areas at the M/D like PSU & myself, we can have a more amped up solution, even with a primary getting up into the OV that is a QPF bomb (0z GFS like evolution & totals). We need the N/S interaction everywhere however for what he said re: tying in the colder air with that phased interaction. I traditionally don't love the weakened systems, but a SS wave is going to have the juice even as a bit de-amped system. We'll definitely learn one way or another the next few hours what is still on the table as we get into the true mid range 4D leads today. These past few systems have been modeled well and consistently, and this is one we'd like to see the consistency stick. We'd take almost all current op solutions minus the GEM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Even on the GFS I see a trend towards a weaker and further east 50/50 low, thanks to the wednesday system being less amped off the coast. I’m trying to be positive, but the gfs seems to be hanging on by a thread thanks to that stout 1031 high to the north despite less cold air. Continue that trend, and this thing may slip away from us. Let’s hope things get colder in 96-48 hr lead timesI’m not seeing much of a cad sig. Seems like there’s a southerly wind component even near the surface. I’m assuming it’s because the hp to the north just doesn’t have time to settle in. I wonder if this is another case of just not having enough blocking in place. With that said, maybe the dry air in place prior to the precip arriving will help with the first half of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Would be extremely careful using those accumulation maps with marginal temps. Not even talking Kuchara, just regular accumulation maps. We've seen time and time again in the last couple of years where accumulation maps show 6-12 inches, even NWS goes with the maps, and we end up with white rain or at best a dusting on the grass. Snowquester was the most extreme example where the NAM said a foot and we got nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, 87storms said: I’m not seeing much of a cad sig. Seems like there’s a southerly wind component even near the surface. I’m assuming it’s because the hp to the north just doesn’t have time to settle in. I wonder if this is another case of just not having enough blocking in place. With that said, maybe the dry air in place prior to the precip arriving will help with the first half of the storm. Yeah, when I was looking at the 50/50, there isn’t enough of a block to hold it in place. What we DO have going for us is timing. Faster storm, most precip happens at night, and with the in situ airmass like you said, we may still thread the needle to get at least a few inches east of the blue ridge. Which would be a win in early Jan during a nino. And I wouldn’t also count out the back end precip as the low departs. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Let’s see what 12z and beyond have to say. Closer we get, the better sampling we’ll have. We may also see some changes in guidance come Wednesday night when storm 1 departs the area. Not going to get too worried 100+ hours out. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, jayyy said: Let’s see what 12z and beyond have to say. Closer we get, the better sampling we’ll have. We may also see some changes in guidance come Wednesday night when storm 1 departs the area. Not going to get too worried 100+ hours out. . Wasn’t 6z GEFS and 0z euro some of the best runs we’ve seen? Lol. Let’s not get nuts here. 14 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Wasn't the whole "sampling" thing (@dtk??) sort of debunked some time ago? As in, it's not really an issue with today's NWP. That's always brought up with every storm still, at least in terms of the 00/12Z suites vs. 06/18Z. Things may change or "trend" (such as it is), but that's not really due to "better sampling." 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Wasn’t 6z GEFS and 0z euro some of the best runs we’ve seen? Lol. Let’s not get nuts here. Always feels like I need a neck brace when I leave this place lol. It's Tuesday. It can shift north and south and strong and weak multiple times still. Ops will still be divided in some way today. We can wrangle, bicker, and ring or just watch and wait. It's a choice. Lol. Considering the track and origin of the shortwave, my hunch is it ends up stronger than whatever the 72 hours progs are showing Thursday AM. Is that good or bad? Only Thursday knows. Lol. About the best time of year you can ask for with a marginal aka seasonable airmass. It's not going to be cold smoke in either of my yards I don't think. I'm prob going to CT wed-early sat AM. I can stay the weekend if it ends up a northern storm. Idk what to think yet. Little things mean a lot and there are a lot of little things that need to happen before really knowing what to expect. I don't expect a big memorable storm in my yard. 3-4" would do it for me to be satisfied for a while. Clean ground/grass cover with the blanket look and not bumpy shallow potatoes. Is that really too much to ask? ...don't answer 16 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Wasn't the whole "sampling" thing ([mention=1861]dtk[/mention]??) sort of debunked some time ago? As in, it's not really an issue with today's NWP. That's always brought up with every storm still, at least in terms of the 00/12Z suites vs. 06/18Z. Things may change or "trend" (such as it is), but that's not really due to "better sampling."Models improve their accuracy as we get closer to an event. More current information = more accurate data. Not sure what’s “debunked” about that. My comment had zero to do with 0z/12z vs 6z/18z. It’s just a fact that models have more current information as time passes, which narrows the outcome envelope. Not worrying about noise from run to run unless we see a sustained trend begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Wasn’t 6z GEFS and 0z euro some of the best runs we’ve seen? Lol. Let’s not get nuts here. Yep. Precisely what I’m saying. There’s no reason to be worried about some wobbles at this range. It’s extremely rare to see models lock in totals 120+ hours out and hold it all the way up to an event. Normal noise at this range. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, jayyy said: Models improve their accuracy as we get closer to an event. More current information = more accurate data. Not sure what’s “debunked” about that. Maybe "debunked" wasn't the correct term...what I meant was, the amount of data "sampled" isn't much different nowadays for any given model cycle. Reading what you say here, however, I realize you meant the data itself will be different (of course) as you move closer-in. I can get that...and sorry if I was a bit harsh in my comment, but there's always this "thing" that different model cycles are "better or worse" due to how much data that was input to them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Man. I just read everything and I would’ve thought everything went to rain. Looked at guidance and the blends and… we really are mentally in a horrid spot in this subforum after the last several years. 13z NBM this morning looks great for those NW of the fall line. Idk how many times I have to say this for this setup; historical precedence for setups with in-situ CAD with non-Arctic air masses tends to favor those NW of the metros with a changeover much more likely for areas southeast of that geographical marker. NBM is a large assortment of guidance with tons of LAMP, GFS/EC/CMC deterministic and ensemble members, and other guidance that has weighted means to aid in the forecast. Is it perfect?, No! Is it statistically significant and helpful in forecasting at leads greater than 3 days?, you bet. Not saying we’re all going to be singing kumbaya. I’m saying to temper expectations at leads. We are still in ensemble land. We haven’t even seen some of the better short range guidance that handle thermals better as we close in. Deterministic gets these wrong all the time. Large scale features need to be monitored. I’m not basing any forecast on the global deterministic handling of any PBL thermals. Now on to 12z… 14 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 I for one am hoping to see the UKIE/CMC get back in the game today. They were both crap yesterday. Slightly less interested in the waffling of GFS/EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 12 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I’m saying to temper expectations at leads. We are still in ensemble land. We haven’t even seen some of the better short range guidance that handle thermals better as we close in. Deterministic gets these wrong all the time. Large scale features need to be monitored. I’m not basing any forecast on the global deterministic handling of any PBL thermals. Now on to 12z… In case anyone was wondering where I stand, that's all I was saying. Temper our expectations. Even the smallest trend one way or another can result in a drastic change in the outcome close to the fall line. Closer to I-81 will probably be fine and more immune to these shifts. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 3 hours ago, WxUSAF said: P.s. banter-type posts will get hidden with more regularity here My man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 14 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Man. I just read everything and I would’ve thought everything went to rain. Looked at guidance and the blends and… we really are mentally in a horrid spot in this subforum after the last several years. 13z NBM this morning looks great for those NW of the fall line. Idk how many times I have to say this for this setup; historical precedence for setups with in-situ CAD with non-Arctic air masses tends to favor those NW of the metros with a changeover much more likely for areas southeast of that geographical marker. NBM is a large assortment of guidance with tons of LAMP, GFS/EC/CMC deterministic and ensemble members, and other guidance that has weighted means to aid in the forecast. Is it perfect?, No! Is it statistically significant and helpful in forecasting at leads greater than 3 days?, you bet. Not saying we’re all going to be singing kumbaya. I’m saying to temper expectations at leads. We are still in ensemble land. We haven’t even seen some of the better short range guidance that handle thermals better as we close in. Deterministic gets these wrong all the time. Large scale features need to be monitored. I’m not basing any forecast on the global deterministic handling of any PBL thermals. Now on to 12z… Yea, there's been a number of times where cad wasn't really showing up until closer to gametime. Seems like that's turning into the x-factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Icon is ever so slightly warmer than 6z, maybe a 5-10 mile shift northwest in the rain snow line ... Mainly noise but would have been nice to see a south shift instead. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, 87storms said: Yea, there's been a number of times where cad wasn't really showing up until closer to gametime. Seems like that's turning into the x-factor. CAD was showing up on the "worse" runs this morning. Its just that it gets scoured out because of the flow. I am tempering my expectations, even out here. Because the air mass isnt all that cold in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 3 minutes ago, 87storms said: Yea, there's been a number of times where cad wasn't really showing up until closer to gametime. Seems like that's turning into the x-factor. If there is one thing our area we live in does well and it’s that. CAD is a beast to erode in the valley. It’s why the US15 on west corridor is mentioned so often for staying most or all frozen in these events. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Guys, I’m not saying to discount the ICON, but there’s a reason we don’t include it in our verification stats for deterministic at the National Center. It’s like the NAM of the globals. 3 1 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: CAD was showing up on the "worse" runs this morning. Its just that it gets scoured out because of the flow. I am tempering my expectations, even out here. Because the air mass isnt all that cold in reality. We know the drill in these setups. Temper expectations, but globals are not going to get the CAD right at any point, especially at leads. I’m looking forward to dissecting the Nest, HREF, and HREF probabilities for everything. Climo wise, you’re in a great spot. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 If you must look at the ICON, 12z is almost identical to 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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