January 6-7 Storm Discussion: we’re due?

[mappy]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That Euro run only goes to 0z right? 

Correct. There should be more after hr90

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

Correct. There should be more after hr90

More rain per that run 

[mappy]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

More rain per that run 

I didn't specify more of what, just more. Not worrying about temps right now. 

[TSSN+]

Just now, mappy said:

I didn't specify more of what, just more. Not worrying about temps right now. 

Neither am I. Models been back and forth. Hopefully the dust settles by tomorrow at the latest. 

[mappy]

11 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Neither am I. Models been back and forth. Hopefully the dust settles by tomorrow at the latest. 

Easy for us to say, we are in a better spot than most. 

[Weather Will]

18 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That Euro run only goes to 0z right? 

Correct. But the heaviest precipitation, what there is of it, is to our North.

[TSSN+]

6 minutes ago, mappy said:

Easy for us to say, we are in a better spot than most. 

True but that comes with the territory 

[EastCoast NPZ]

Goodness, this thing has trended the wrong way.  Has anyone ever seen a major storm consensus on all guidance at D5 degrade like this?  I know they've busted at gametime,  but to see this storm universally morph on guidance in the medium range like this? 

[Chris78]

2 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Goodness, this thing has trended the wrong way.  Has anyone ever seen a major storm consensus on all guidance at D5 degrade like this?  I know they've busted at gametime,  but to see this storm universally morph on guidance in the medium range like this? 

Hopefully the 6z euro is just off on a tangent. 

Even the weaker 6z gfs still has snow for western and Northern areas.

 

[Scraff]

It would seem todays model runs are are the most important. Our storm and its associated energy hits the west coast today. Better sampling for the models (good or bad) is definitely forthcoming. If it looks terrible by tomorrow morning, then we can commence our ritualistic cliff diving party. For now, no model consistency = game still on until proven otherwise. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

3 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Hopefully the 6z euro is just off on a tangent. 

Even the weaker 6z gfs still has snow for western and Northern areas.

 

It has snow, but a fraction of what we were looking at even yesterday.   For days straight we were looking at 1.5" precip area-wide.

[Kevin Reilly]

7 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Hopefully the 6z euro is just off on a tangent. 

Even the weaker 6z gfs still has snow for western and Northern areas.

 

Hopefully all 6z runs are off on a tangent.  Maybe the mets did not put the data into the 6z runs and will feed the better data into 12z runs?

[osfan24]

The 6z runs would not have been so bad had it not been for what happened at 0z that got everyone encouraged again. What a rug pull. Was the 0z a blip or 6z?

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

It has snow, but a fraction of what we were looking at even yesterday.   For days straight we were looking at 1.5" precip area-wide.

Hopefully it was just a blip at 6z but precip cut in half for our areas on both the GFS and Euro. 

That probably effects temps with not getting the evaporational cooling / wet bulbing we would get from a wall of precip moving in from the Southwest.

Fingers crossed the QPF is back at 12z

[ers-wxman1]

16 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Goodness, this thing has trended the wrong way.  Has anyone ever seen a major storm consensus on all guidance at D5 degrade like this?  I know they've busted at gametime,  but to see this storm universally morph on guidance in the medium range like this? 

Wrote about this yesterday. It is a mistake just to look at the model output, QPF etc. Analyze the scenario from the top down. 500/700/850. Are you seeing any features that align with known weather patterns that generate heavy snow across our area? Ridging out west, 850/700/500 energy is closed, deepening as it swings to our south? Strong high to the north? Blocking? Also with the CAD…what kind of air mass is being dammed? Nowhere in the northern tier do we see wind chill or extreme temperature headlines. These are flags. It’s been mild.

The big difference last night on the 00z I saw was the 850 low became closed and stronger with the vort passage, while the high became stronger, and more dynamics, ridging hinted over the western U.S. that amplifies things enough to deepen the surface low in the right spot, however this isn’t slam dunk. It’s all marginal and not dealing with a textbook winter storm here, so any minor shift in these subtle features will significantly alter snowfall amounts. That is what is happening. It’s simply not the ideal pattern. It would be a heavy front end thump then hope for wrap around as it winds up offshore before subsidence kicks in. Many moving parts. Strong SW upper flow makes this fast moving system, rely on front end WAA. Thermals also marginal, no good source to fuel this. These types of systems are a nightmare to forecast, especially with regard to headlines and where to put them. 

 

 

[clskinsfan]

Us westerners might get more from the front end thump on Tuesday than the weak mess on Saturday.

[Ravens94]

First SREF plume for the storm does not include the entire duration.

BWI 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Waffling means uncertainty. It may not go our way but I seriously doubt we have seen the actual result forecast yet.

We need a stronger storm. To get it, we need that first sw to dig. To get that we need that trailing piece to back off. Just my views 

[WinterWxLuvr]

3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Us westerners might get more from the front end thump on Tuesday than the weak mess on Saturday.

Without snow on the ground I doubt there would be a front end thump.

[WxUSAF]

My quick look at 6z euro was that it jumped back to that “worst of both worlds” scenario from 6z/12z yesterday with a stronger vortmax and more phasing, but not enough to get back to that strong storm scenario from 48-72 hours ago. It was a fairly big jump from 0z. We’ll see what happens at 12z!

[mattie g]

2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

What impresses me about the gfs is it’s rock steady consistency 

It's not just the GFS that's had these little blips.

[Chris78]

I pulled this from the PA thread but I would say the OP doesn't agree with its ensembles .  Pleasantly surprised to see this.

[baltosquid]

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

I pulled this from the PA thread but I would say the OP doesn't agree with its ensembles .  Pleasantly surprised to see this.

A nice silver lining, just have to hope there's still room for the ensembles to be the leader here rather than the OP. Relatively close now...

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I pulled this from the PA thread but I would say the OP doesn't agree with its ensembles .  Pleasantly surprised to see this.

Oooohhh…that’s encouraging. Tossing 6z euro with extreme prejudice! 
 

[Newman]

6z RGEM at the end of its runtime, sticking close to its global counterpart. The NAM... just don't look at it unless you want disappointment

[Rhino16]

14 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Wrote about this yesterday. It is a mistake just to look at the model output, QPF etc. Analyze the scenario from the top down. 500/700/850. Are you seeing any features that align with known weather patterns that generate heavy snow across our area? Ridging out west, 850/700/500 energy is closed, deepening as it swings to our south? Strong high to the north? Blocking? Also with the CAD…what kind of air mass is being dammed? Nowhere in the northern tier do we see wind chill or extreme temperature headlines. These are flags. It’s been mild.

The big difference last night on the 00z I saw was the 850 low became closed and stronger with the vort passage, while the high became stronger, and more dynamics, ridging hinted over the western U.S. that amplifies things enough to deepen the surface low in the right spot, however this isn’t slam dunk. It’s all marginal and not dealing with a textbook winter storm here, so any minor shift in these subtle features will significantly alter snowfall amounts. That is what is happening. It’s simply not the ideal pattern. It would be a heavy front end thump then hope for wrap around as it winds up offshore before subsidence kicks in. Many moving parts. Strong SW upper flow makes this fast moving system, rely on front end WAA. Thermals also marginal, no good source to fuel this. These types of systems are a nightmare to forecast, especially with regard to headlines and where to put them. 

 

 

Top down forecasting! Very important technique to use for winter especially.

[mappy]

6 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I pulled this from the PA thread but I would say the OP doesn't agree with its ensembles .  Pleasantly surprised to see this.

Zoomed in version

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, baltosquid said:

A nice silver lining, just have to hope there's still room for the ensembles to be the leader here rather than the OP. Relatively close now...

Going off of the NBM and Euro and GFS ensembles ( I think we can still use ensembles for today) west of the Fall line still has a great chance at a moderate event. Even all the way to 95 probably sees some snow.

It may not be the double digit storm that we were all hoping for a few days ago but it still could be decent.

[WinterWxLuvr]

6 minutes ago, Newman said:

6z RGEM at the end of its runtime, sticking close to its global counterpart. The NAM... just don't look at it unless you want disappointment

Damn that’s discouraging. I typically rely on the long range NAM for my forecasts.

[clskinsfan]

RGEM is actually a pummeling out here.