Deck Pic Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 This would be a really good storm for WV panhandle/Winchester/Westminster and even some areas to the east of that line 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: This would be a really good storm for WV panhandle/Winchester/Westminster and even some areas to the east of that line Honestly it’s not terrible for me at all. I would take 5-6” in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Upon closer look it’s slightly colder than 12z. And a pretty good improvement from. 18z. The op only went to 90 but it was headed towards a train wreck and there is a reason mo one posted the 18z eps control. This was a decent step better than that. Slightly better than 12z imo. But not the big jump like the gfs/ggem/uk 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: About to find out but so far slightly better high pressure over the top. 1-2 mb stronger and anchored further west. Slightly weaker wave than previous euro stronger than gfs. Great on high to west and +mb. Hope low not below 1000 until past OC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, ravensrule said: Honestly it’s not terrible for me at all. I would take 5-6” in a heartbeat. You don't want to be on the eastern side of a gradient like that. It could mean 1-2". Fortunately, the euro is an outlier right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Euro is showing a pronounced warm layer from 850-700 close to the cities in the key 93-96 hr window that the GFS doesn't have. 925 layer is definitely better and 850 is marginally better closer to the cities than the 12z run. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Memory here, but I feel the Euro was late to the party a while back too and was warm. That was AGES ago now so I may be just wishcasting. BUT, that same storm did changeover and other models were colder.... so.. maybe not.. going to sleep a few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: You don't want to be on the eastern side of a gradient like that. It could mean 1-2". Fortunately, the euro is an outlier right now. I hear you. Hopefully it comes around tomorrow, because we all know when it’s an outlier it’s generally correct. Thanks for the info. Have a great night. I love the avatar btw. Hopefully we get that many inches. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Great on high to west and +mb. Hope low not below 1000 until past OC 1001mb as it crosses Hatteras 999mb just southeast of OC 994 east of cape may. it doesn’t start to deepen until it’s east of us. That’s fine. It’s just warmer than the other 0z guidance. It trended better with the high than the 12z and 18z euro but it wasn’t to the gfs/ggem level and that made the difference. We don’t need any adjustment to the track or depth of the coastal. We just need it to be a couple degrees colder. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxtrix Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 12 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: This would be a really good storm for WV panhandle/Winchester/Westminster and even some areas to the east of that line all of the signals have been solid out here for almost a week now--I'm starting to get optimistic. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On second viewing I do like the euro better. It lost the oh valley primary totally. It’s colder just now as much as we want. But I think it was heading in a better direction than the last 2 runs. 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, Wxtrix said: all of the signals have been solid out here for almost a week now--I'm starting to get optimistic. you should be. You're in a great spot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 1001mb as it crosses Hatteras 999mb just southeast of OC 994 east of cape may. it doesn’t start to deepen until it’s east of us. That’s fine. It’s just warmer than the other 0z guidance. It trended better with the high than the 12z and 18z euro but it wasn’t to the gfs/ggem level and that made the difference. We don’t need any adjustment to the track or depth of the coastal. We just need it to be a couple degrees colder. The 1000ish works and east of OC by 50miles or so is great . Two big positive factors like that and low 20’s dews at start and it’s Exciting! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Almost no change to the overall look between 12z and 18z over mid-atl. Might be settling in. GFS still wiggling around. Looks like a solid hit to the classic northern/higher elevation spots (Fredrick/Carroll/ WV PH / MD PH) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 24 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Memory here, but I feel the Euro was late to the party a while back too and was warm. That was AGES ago now so I may be just wishcasting. BUT, that same storm did changeover and other models were colder.... so.. maybe not.. going to sleep a few hours We got model runs to check out, lol. Storm is going to improve even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Almost no change to the overall look between 12z and 18z over mid-atl. Might be settling in. GFS still wiggling around. Looks like a solid hit to the classic northern/higher elevation spots (Fredrick/Carroll/ WV PH / MD PH)Bit more than a wiggle on the gfs tonight I’d say. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 The trend on tonight’s runs is undeniable across all guidance. As PSU said, euro is a tad warmer than other guidance and therefore we don’t quite max out, but it’s closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Euro trend... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 GFS “wiggle” aka big shift - 12z vs 0zGotta imagine the Boston sub wasn’t thrilled about that run. Went from a foot+ to 1-3” around the Boston metro over 2 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 GDPS trend… 12z vz 00z. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Ukie trend.. 0z vs 12ZAll major guidance shifted in our direction tonight. Hope to keep it rolling come 6z . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 00z EPSMSLP - 2 mb weaker vs 12z HP - 2mb stronger vs 12zConfluence - better Track - a smidge further offshore . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 WB 6Z ICON 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Latest from NWS Sterling LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A strong southern stream mid/upper-level trough over the Mid-South Friday night quickly moves northeast as it phases into a flat trough over the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic on Saturday. At the surface, an associated area of low pressure develops along the northern Gulf Coast and very quickly moves across the Southeast states through Saturday morning. The surface low becomes better organized as it crosses eastern NC into far southeast VA, where it moves offshore along the NC/VA border. Precipitation overspreads the area from southwest to northeast starting late Friday night into Saturday. Temperatures Friday night are forecast to be below freezing for most of the area. However, there is considerable uncertainty to the east of US-15 as easterly winds advect in a warmer marine airmass and strong WAA ahead of the surface low help to increase temps along/east of I-95. All that being said, precipitation is likely to start out as snow west of US- 15 and a rain/snow mix along/east of US-15. As the morning progresses, areas east of I-95 are most likely to transition to a cold rain, with steady snow west of US-15, and a mix in between. Having the surface high well to the north and weak onshore flow proceeding the surface low are not generally favorable for accumulating snow along I-95. Any chance to see higher snow totals there will be dependent on higher precip rates and wet bulb effects overcoming the marginal temperature profile. Still, p-type is going to be highly sensitive to the track of the low, with a tight rain-snow gradient likely. Significant snow accumulations are most likely along/west of the Blue Ridge and Catoctins. Where precip is more likely to be in the form of rain, near and east of I-95, there is the potential for instances of flooding. Continue to monitor the progress of this storm as the weekend approaches. The coastal low tracks northeast and away from the area Saturday night, then a reinforcing upper traverses the area on Sunday. Some lingering rain and snow showers possible during the first part of Monday north of I-66 and west of the Blue Ridge, though conditions dry out quickly in the afternoon. Upslope mountain snow showers continue into Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Sterling saying mostly rain for i95.. did they not see the 00z models? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 5 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Latest from NWS LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A strong southern stream mid/upper-level trough over the Mid-South Friday night quickly moves northeast as it phases into a flat trough over the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic on Saturday. At the surface, an associated area of low pressure develops along the northern Gulf Coast and very quickly moves across the Southeast states through Saturday morning. The surface low becomes better organized as it crosses eastern NC into far southeast VA, where it moves offshore along the NC/VA border. Precipitation overspreads the area from southwest to northeast starting late Friday night into Saturday. Temperatures Friday night are forecast to be below freezing for most of the area. However, there is considerable uncertainty to the east of US-15 as easterly winds advect in a warmer marine airmass and strong WAA ahead of the surface low help to increase temps along/east of I-95. All that being said, precipitation is likely to start out as snow west of US- 15 and a rain/snow mix along/east of US-15. As the morning progresses, areas east of I-95 are most likely to transition to a cold rain, with steady snow west of US-15, and a mix in between. Having the surface high well to the north and weak onshore flow proceeding the surface low are not generally favorable for accumulating snow along I-95. Any chance to see higher snow totals there will be dependent on higher precip rates and wet bulb effects overcoming the marginal temperature profile. Still, p-type is going to be highly sensitive to the track of the low, with a tight rain-snow gradient likely. Significant snow accumulations are most likely along/west of the Blue Ridge and Catoctins. Where precip is more likely to be in the form of rain, near and east of I-95, there is the potential for instances of flooding. Continue to monitor the progress of this storm as the weekend approaches. The coastal low tracks northeast and away from the area Saturday night, then a reinforcing upper traverses the area on Sunday. Some lingering rain and snow showers possible during the first part of Monday north of I-66 and west of the Blue Ridge, though conditions dry out quickly in the afternoon. Upslope mountain snow showers continue into Sunday night. NWS Mount Holly is in overall agreement- A shortwave trough along the subtropical jet will eject out of the Gulf Coast region and lift across the Mid Atlantic. An associated area of low pressure will strengthen as it moves through the southeast and up the Mid-Atlantic coast Saturday and into Sunday. The exact track of this surface low will determine what specific impacts there will be. It is worth mentioning that the latest deterministic guidance has shifted slightly further offshore and leaned towards a weaker system overall, potentially allowing for a slightly colder solution, albeit still not enough for an "all- snow" solution. With that said, we can expect guidance to continue the "tug-of-war" of where to place the center of this low, thus it remains in our best interest to stick closer to the consensus blend, which continues to show a low track that gives our higher elevations along the I-78 corridor the best chance for snow with a highly uncertain precip type forecast for the I-95 corridor and points south and east. Guidance should come into better focus in the next 24-48 hours as the shortwave trough responsible for this system moves over the western US and can be better sampled by upper air observations. Bottom line, this system bears watching and is setting up to bring heavy precipitation, gusty winds, and potential coastal flooding though with strong onshore flow. See hydrology section below for more details regarding rainfall and flooding potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 For the coastal plain, the 0z GFS idea of weaker/souther is probably the only hope for some frozen in this setup. Snow starved lowlanders should consider taking a short trip for this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 WB 6Z GFS 1pm Sat, 4pm, 7pm and precip.totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 20 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GFS 1pm Sat, 4pm, 7pm and precip.totals. Lighter amounts this time, run to run variance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 That was a huge precip nothing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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