jayyy Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 A detailed play by play of the euro is appreciated here!.I will take any move toward a colder / snowier solution as a win tonight, especially with how the GFS CMC and Ukie trended. Looking for: 1. confluence and the HP look better on this run vs 6-18z as far as strength and positioning is concerned 2. Focus continues to move away from the OV and toward a consolidated SS storm that tracks SE of here We’re at day 4.5 or so… this should historically be in the OP euros wheelhouse. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 Out to 54 comparing to gfs. Slightly more confluence. Slightly weaker SW exiting the 4 corners. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 Just now, Deck Pic said: It's only out to 78 I’m antsy as hell. It’s been 8 years since I have gotten a decent storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 About to find out but so far slightly better high pressure over the top. 1-2 mb stronger and anchored further west. Slightly weaker wave than previous euro stronger than gfs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 better HP look on 00z thru 78 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 DarkSky via the Apple Weather App is all in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 At 83 seeing the same trends as gfs. Stronger high further west but it’s not as strong as gfs was. But euro was warmer to begin with. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 at 88 seems extraordinarily unlikely this would cut. Track should be pretty sweet 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 MSLP off NC/SC border at 90 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 It trended better with the high but in the end it’s still warm. Looks similar to 12z euro 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 Euro is stubborn. A similar run to 12z...wet and warmYeah it looks like 12z unfortunately. The slightest bit better in the cities. Best improvement is for NE MD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 Going to be interesting to see what the higher res models have to say about thermals once we get into their range . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 Let’s nudge this 30 miles SE. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Yeah it looks like 12z unfortunately. The slightest bit better in the cities. Best improvement is for NE MD. Seems like euro is the warmest model now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 Let’s nudge this 30 miles SE.GFS/CMC/Ukie/Icon and Euro blend? lol . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 Still lots of change going on... trend for now seems to be a much weaker/flatter wave. Classic trend towards the gulf stream baroclinic zone as well. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: This would be a really good storm for WV panhandle/Winchester/Westminster and even some areas to the east of that line Honestly it’s not terrible for me at all. I would take 5-6” in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 Upon closer look it’s slightly colder than 12z. And a pretty good improvement from. 18z. The op only went to 90 but it was headed towards a train wreck and there is a reason mo one posted the 18z eps control. This was a decent step better than that. Slightly better than 12z imo. But not the big jump like the gfs/ggem/uk 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: About to find out but so far slightly better high pressure over the top. 1-2 mb stronger and anchored further west. Slightly weaker wave than previous euro stronger than gfs. Great on high to west and +mb. Hope low not below 1000 until past OC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 Euro is showing a pronounced warm layer from 850-700 close to the cities in the key 93-96 hr window that the GFS doesn't have. 925 layer is definitely better and 850 is marginally better closer to the cities than the 12z run. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 Memory here, but I feel the Euro was late to the party a while back too and was warm. That was AGES ago now so I may be just wishcasting. BUT, that same storm did changeover and other models were colder.... so.. maybe not.. going to sleep a few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: You don't want to be on the eastern side of a gradient like that. It could mean 1-2". Fortunately, the euro is an outlier right now. I hear you. Hopefully it comes around tomorrow, because we all know when it’s an outlier it’s generally correct. Thanks for the info. Have a great night. I love the avatar btw. Hopefully we get that many inches. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Great on high to west and +mb. Hope low not below 1000 until past OC 1001mb as it crosses Hatteras 999mb just southeast of OC 994 east of cape may. it doesn’t start to deepen until it’s east of us. That’s fine. It’s just warmer than the other 0z guidance. It trended better with the high than the 12z and 18z euro but it wasn’t to the gfs/ggem level and that made the difference. We don’t need any adjustment to the track or depth of the coastal. We just need it to be a couple degrees colder. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxtrix Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 12 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: This would be a really good storm for WV panhandle/Winchester/Westminster and even some areas to the east of that line all of the signals have been solid out here for almost a week now--I'm starting to get optimistic. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On second viewing I do like the euro better. It lost the oh valley primary totally. It’s colder just now as much as we want. But I think it was heading in a better direction than the last 2 runs. 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 1001mb as it crosses Hatteras 999mb just southeast of OC 994 east of cape may. it doesn’t start to deepen until it’s east of us. That’s fine. It’s just warmer than the other 0z guidance. It trended better with the high than the 12z and 18z euro but it wasn’t to the gfs/ggem level and that made the difference. We don’t need any adjustment to the track or depth of the coastal. We just need it to be a couple degrees colder. The 1000ish works and east of OC by 50miles or so is great . Two big positive factors like that and low 20’s dews at start and it’s Exciting! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 Almost no change to the overall look between 12z and 18z over mid-atl. Might be settling in. GFS still wiggling around. Looks like a solid hit to the classic northern/higher elevation spots (Fredrick/Carroll/ WV PH / MD PH) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 24 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Memory here, but I feel the Euro was late to the party a while back too and was warm. That was AGES ago now so I may be just wishcasting. BUT, that same storm did changeover and other models were colder.... so.. maybe not.. going to sleep a few hours We got model runs to check out, lol. Storm is going to improve even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 Almost no change to the overall look between 12z and 18z over mid-atl. Might be settling in. GFS still wiggling around. Looks like a solid hit to the classic northern/higher elevation spots (Fredrick/Carroll/ WV PH / MD PH)Bit more than a wiggle on the gfs tonight I’d say. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 The trend on tonight’s runs is undeniable across all guidance. As PSU said, euro is a tad warmer than other guidance and therefore we don’t quite max out, but it’s closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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