nj2va Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Pretty amazing difference on the GFS with 850 temps. At its warmest, 18z had the 850 line just west of Dulles into Loudoun County while 00z keeps it down in Charles County, MD. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, MillvilleWx said: The run was really positive to see with the newer 00z data ingest. I actually loved seeing the 5H progression of the trailing wave getting into the action late Sunday into Monday with light snow continuing over the MA. That will be something to monitor, but the primary shortwave passage was fantastic for a quick thump over a span of 8-12 hrs. this is NASTY. jet streak, isentropic lift, and 700mb WAA/FGEN all collocated 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 8 minutes ago, Heisy said: Cmc . are you back 3.0? The CMC has a 987 low. Seems to be catching all the new trends a day earlier than other models @psuhoffman 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 literally every positive change on the GEFS. better confluence, weaker kicker, and more potent vort 12 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 700mb Verticial Velocity 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, Ji said: are you back 3.0? The CMC has a 987 low. Seems to be catching all the new trends a day earlier than other models @psuhoffman The ggem often plays follow the leader when it jumps around but att it does seem like maybe it’s actually leading the trends. Who knows. The delicate power play between all those western SWs is driving the guidance (and us) crazy. This is cool. Enjoy it. But until the details with those features stops shifting around every 12 hours don’t get too comfortable with any one specific projection. The general pattern idea has been there since day 15! The general synoptic look since day 7-8. Amazing with all the crap going on in the jet out west. But we need to finer details to get nailed down since we’re on a razors edge wrt thermals. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: literally every positive change on the GEFS. better confluence, weaker kicker, and more potent vort Kill that kicker and we go back to a slower and stronger storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Canadian is really wet. 10-18" N and W of cities 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 7 minutes ago, Ji said: are you back 3.0? The CMC has a 987 low. Seems to be catching all the new trends a day earlier than other models @psuhoffman you told us the models were good in nino 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Snowstorm followed by behemoth rainstorm three days later. Id imagine flooding would be a significant concern. . 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Less than 60 hours for Watches to be issued! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Very latest just out out by WPC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: you told us the models were good in nino they are. They have been showing snow every day since Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 gefs is way colder 850 0C line is SE of st marys 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 5 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said: Snowstorm followed by behemoth rainstorm three days later. Id imagine flooding would be a significant concern. . Got to stay positive. There is still time for that behemoth rain storm to realize it’s better as snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 nmore amped and more confluence 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Checking in and saw 100+ new posts. I knew. We are back! The trends tonight need to continue. We are getting closer. Wednesday starts in 27 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 GFS has snow and ice Tuesday before raain 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Canadian is really wet. 10-18" N and W of citiesWhoever gets lucky and ends up being just west of the R/S line but stays primarily snow is going to get dumped on with the dynamics of this storm. 10-18” may be a tad high but stillWhat a shift in just one suite. Still lots of time left though. Let’s lock it in. Sticking to my guns, especially for my area over to PSUland. Low level warning snowfall looking very likely with the potential for more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 are you back 3.0? The CMC has a 987 low. Seems to be catching all the new trends a day earlier than other models [mention=2304]psuhoffman[/mention]I’m still shocked. Give me the Ukie too in 15 minutes and I’ll be floored . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 hour ago, MDScienceTeacher said: No. I have seen it so many times before. Usually in that exact time range too. This is why I commented on @psuhoffman 's post last night when he was telling @Deck Pic how much the models have improved and how within 6 days its usually just ironing out minor details. If this holds, the GFS was a major bust. For like 8 runs in a row the GFS was showing a text book MECS. Then all the sudden its QPF was cut in half while the track and intensity decreased dramatically. I cant tell you how many times I have something like this in the exact same time range. I feel like there is no safe lead time around here. The goalposts have been pretty narrow for day 5-7. It’s been shifting around but if you zoom out the idea wrt track and a snow event somewhere in the mid atl to northeast has been there. But we care a lot about what are the finer details that determine a 50 mile shift in the R/Sn. It wasn’t that long ago that a whole synoptic event track would shift hundreds of miles at this range run to run. I guess it’s all perspective and perception how you define this though. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, Heisy said: I’m still shocked. Give me the Ukie too in 15 minutes and I’ll be floored . If the ukie shows the same improvement. People will go nuts!! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 We got the trifecta I think . 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just saw the GFS and GGEM... this must be too good to be true. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I like the simple(r) look 0z just showed us. No transfer to figure out etc, just a storm coming up the coast and running into HP. Can only hope as we get closer we see things keep this look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, Heisy said: We got the trifecta I think . Looks great!! If 850s are good then we definitely got the trifecta!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 24 minutes ago, nj2va said: Pretty amazing difference on the GFS with 850 temps. At its warmest, 18z had the 850 line just west of Dulles into Loudoun County while 00z keeps it down in Charles County, MD. While we wait for UK and Euro, I wanted to share 850s on the CMC too. While CMC evolution is different than the GFS, similar story with colder solution than CMC 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 And looks like all models show a miller A which means no transfer crap!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 5 minutes ago, jayyy said: Whoever gets lucky and ends up being just west of the R/S line but stays primarily snow is going to get dumped on with the dynamics of this storm. 10-18” may be a tad high but still What a shift in just one suite. Still lots of time left though. Let’s lock it in. Sticking to my guns, especially for my area over to PSUland. Low level warning snowfall looking very likely with the potential for more. I would say the same thing I said yesterday. 8-12" for you. 3.75" for me with a variety of precip types. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 GEFS - less heavy for the western folks, but massive cushion. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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