NorthArlington101 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 that is a beatdown i thinkon a scale of 1-10 how worried are we about suppression? 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: on a scale of 1-10 how worried are we about suppression? Great Start to the 00z suite 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, Ji said: LP is deeper too....so the precip is heavier! I’m basically right on that green/dark blue line. I’ll just assume its huge parachutes and a snow globe. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: on a scale of 1-10 how worried are we about suppression? Lol literally I’m at a 1 with how some of these model runs have gone last day or two. No low west of Richmond will do anyone any good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 30 minutes ago, mappy said: Ooof just kidding. Worse for all. Qpf is the same as 19z, and temps aren’t any warmer than 19z, so not sure why totals are lower? Still not a bad event considering its the first real snow event of the season for alot of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Latest NBM Probabilities >= 3" >= 5" Not bad considering the time before the actual storm 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 7 minutes ago, Ji said: that is a beatdown i think Damn.. looks alot better for us all. Its a shame the ICON isnt a more reliable model lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: That’s quite a split in Fairfax County. Cannot imagine it winds up that way although I could see Reston and Chantilly getting more than Fairfax and Springfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, winter_warlock said: Damn.. looks alot better for us all. Its a shame the ICON isnt a more reliable model lol It will be on Thursday when it shows .50" to 1.00" of rain.. just kidding seriously Thursday 0z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: That’s a pretty dramatic shift south in the snow totals. The 6” line was way up to Frederick County at 18z. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, Kevin Reilly said: It will be on Thursday when it shows .50" to 1.00" of rain.. just kidding seriously Thursday 0z Yup, still 2 days away before any real solution is nailed down on models 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, nj2va said: That’s a pretty dramatic shift south in the snow totals. The 6” line was way up to Frederick County at 18z. Yeah is is a nice kick SE, if it was a different model then the ICON, it get a little more excited lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, winter_warlock said: Yeah is is a nice kick SE, if it was a different model then the ICON, it get a little more excited lol ICON is a terrible model but I’d much rather see this to kick off 00z than the other way around. Just go with the snowiest model, common sense be damned. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 22 minutes ago, Ji said: that is a beatdown i think 6” in 3 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 GFS through 60 maybe looks to be a tad quicker with energy diving southeast out of Texas and slightly better confluence? What’s everyone think? Def some southeastward progression at 72 with gulf low now.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 CMC absolutely crushes us, S of last run w more conflunece GFS noticeable shift more confluence did something get sampled? 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: GFS through 60 maybe looks to be a tad quicker with energy diving southeast out of Texas and slightly better confluence? What’s everyone think? Def some southeastward progression at 72 with gulf low now.. So far through 72. I dont see any low heading towards the O V 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, DarkSharkWX said: CMC absolutely crushes us, S of last run w more conflunece GFS noticeable shift more confluence did something get sampled? GFS has a slightly stronger high pressing south 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: GFS through 60 maybe looks to be a tad quicker with energy diving southeast out of Texas and slightly better confluence? What’s everyone think? Def some southeastward progression at 72 with gulf low now.. Heights lower over the MA/NE which I like to see with this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 GFS at Hr87 HP to the north noticeably stronger than 18Z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, winter_warlock said: So far through 72. I dont see any low heading towards the O V i think the OV valley low thing died at the 12z ensembles 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Big shift west in sfc high 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Definitely looks like an improvement. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Through my untrained eye gfs through 84 does look better, no low going through ohio valley. Just 1 low in south east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, DarkSharkWX said: CMC absolutely crushes us, S of last run w more conflunece GFS noticeable shift more confluence did something get sampled? Just now, winter_warlock said: So far through 72. I dont see any low heading towards the O V Starting to relax some about the dual low scenario… 84 has light snow breaking out sw va and 1032 parked up Toronto area. Slid over perfectly north of Lake Superior. Pretty sweet spot to funnel in. So far looking awesome. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 its a good run compared to 18z (has DCA at 32) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 wow..moved further south... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 6 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: GFS through 60 maybe looks to be a tad quicker with energy diving southeast out of Texas and slightly better confluence? What’s everyone think? Def some southeastward progression at 72 with gulf low now.. Slightly better confluence in New England through 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 75 mile shift S, even dc stays all snow 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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