mappy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 FWIW, 19z NWS Blend of Models (aka the NBM that has been mentioned) snow map. It is a step back from 13z that had DC getting 2”, and my backyard in the 8-9” range 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, mappy said: FWIW, 19z NWS Blend of Models (aka the NBM that has been mentioned) snow map. It is a step back from 13z that had DC getting 2”, and my backyard in the 8-9” range This was definitely expected with the latest data at 12z, but definitely not the end of the world. It's a solid first event, verbatim. One of the characteristics I like about the NBM is being able to depict elevation and outlining the areas of focus climo wise. We haven't even gotten into hi-res territory yet where there will be more definition inside 48 hrs and even more inside 24 hrs. A textbook fall line scenario right there. 3-6" with local to 8" is a good call for areas NW of the fall line with 1-3" max to 4" along and southeast. I'd take this in a heartbeat. Thanks for that update @mappy 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: This was definitely expected with the latest data at 12z, but definitely not the end of the world. It's a solid first event, verbatim. One of the characteristics I like about the NBM is being able to depict elevation and outlining the areas of focus climo wise. We haven't even gotten into hi-res territory yet where there will be more definition inside 48 hrs and even more inside 24 hrs. A textbook fall line scenario right there. 3-6" with local to 8" is a good call for areas NW of the fall line with 1-3" max to 4" along and southeast. I'd take this in a heartbeat. Thanks for that update @mappy Spot on as usual. You can also see the Monocacy Valley snow hole illustrated. It seems to rear it's ugly head when there isn't sustained cold air draining into Frederick City. I know that's been the perennial bane of @catoctin wx and @Mrs.J 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: This was definitely expected with the latest data at 12z, but definitely not the end of the world. It's a solid first event, verbatim. One of the characteristics I like about the NBM is being able to depict elevation and outlining the areas of focus climo wise. We haven't even gotten into hi-res territory yet where there will be more definition inside 48 hrs and even more inside 24 hrs. A textbook fall line scenario right there. 3-6" with local to 8" is a good call for areas NW of the fall line with 1-3" max to 4" along and southeast. I'd take this in a heartbeat. Thanks for that update @mappy 01z is coming in now. Better further north, about the same near DC. Map soon. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherShak Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 They do a great job on the roads up there. You will be fine. Agreed, however passing over Seven Mountains can get hairy if it’s coming down pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: This was definitely expected with the latest data at 12z, but definitely not the end of the world. It's a solid first event, verbatim. One of the characteristics I like about the NBM is being able to depict elevation and outlining the areas of focus climo wise. We haven't even gotten into hi-res territory yet where there will be more definition inside 48 hrs and even more inside 24 hrs. A textbook fall line scenario right there. 3-6" with local to 8" is a good call for areas NW of the fall line with 1-3" max to 4" along and southeast. I'd take this in a heartbeat. Thanks for that update @mappy 1z updated on wxbell. Another slow decline unfortunately. Not sure what caused it. 18z data was slightly better I thought then 12z. But it is what it is. Still would be a decent way to get on the board for many. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Spot on as usual. You can also see the Monocacy Valley snow hole illustrated. It seems to rear it's ugly head when there isn't sustained cold air draining into Frederick City. I know that's been the perennial bane of @catoctin wx and @Mrs.J Life in the valley! I live on a hill off Monocacy, but I still won't get as much as places along the Catoctins to the west of Thurmont. Still a nice event out in these parts. Just now, mappy said: 01z is coming in now. Better further north, about the same near DC. Map soon. Thanks! I was gonna start looking myself, so I appreciate the aid on posting the maps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 1z updated on wxbell. Another slow decline unfortunately. Not sure what caused it. 18z data was slightly better I thought then 12z. But it is what it is. Still would be a decent way to get on the board for many. Looks like more in my area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, mappy said: 01z is coming in now. Better further north, about the same near DC. Map soon. Ooof just kidding. Worse for all. Qpf is the same as 19z, and temps aren’t any warmer than 19z, so not sure why totals are lower? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 1z updated on wxbell. Another slow decline unfortunately. Not sure what caused it. 18z data was slightly better I thought then 12z. But it is what it is. Still would be a decent way to get on the board for many. Looks like a slight tick down and actually the biggest loss north of the Mason Dixon where 1-2" was lost over the highlands. We'll see this bounce a little bit in the coming days, but this is still a decent event to get the ball rolling. Yes, it stinks not getting a bomb, but having snowfall during the day and evening on Saturday will bring up everyone's spirit. I'm staying positive because this will be my first good event since moving back home. It'll be special to me 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 6 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Looks like a slight tick down and actually the biggest loss north of the Mason Dixon where 1-2" was lost over the highlands. We'll see this bounce a little bit in the coming days, but this is still a decent event to get the ball rolling. Yes, it stinks not getting a bomb, but having snowfall during the day and evening on Saturday will bring up everyone's spirit. I'm staying positive because this will be my first good event since moving back home. It'll be special to me Any snow is good snow, especially in the mid Atlantic. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Any snow is good snow, especially in the mid Atlantic. @Ji do you concur? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kristia Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: Life in the valley! I live on a hill off Monocacy, but I still won't get as much as places along the Catoctins to the west of Thurmont. Still a nice event out in these parts. Thanks! I was gonna start looking myself, so I appreciate the aid on posting the maps I am up by Gambrill Park. Moved here from Baltimore County in 2020. Night and day compared to lower elevations. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Looks like a slight tick down and actually the biggest loss north of the Mason Dixon where 1-2" was lost over the highlands. We'll see this bounce a little bit in the coming days, but this is still a decent event to get the ball rolling. Yes, it stinks not getting a bomb, but having snowfall during the day and evening on Saturday will bring up everyone's spirit. I'm staying positive because this will be my first good event since moving back home. It'll be special to meI add significant points to daytime snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said: @Ji do you concur? not in El Ninos 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 40 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Looks like part of the mid Atlantic does just fine We do. I guess my point was more that New England was bone dry yesterday now these runs today they hoist the golden shovel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 NAM does look like we could start as snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, kristia said: I am up by Gambrill Park. Moved here from Baltimore County in 2020. Night and day compared to lower elevations. Your area is gorgeous. I was on a hike in those parts last month. Should be a nice little storm up there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 15 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: this will be my first good event since moving back home. It'll be special to me Same. I just moved back here a year and half ago. Even if it’s just 3” imby as depicted by the NBM, that’ll be my first good event as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, Terpeast said: Same. I just moved back here a year and half ago. Even if it’s just 3” imby as depicted by the NBM, that’ll be my first good event as well. last time i lived in Ashburn, i got 42 inches in 5 days. moved to leesburg in Late Feb 2010. Do right by Ashburn dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, Ji said: last time i lived in Ashburn, i got 42 inches in 5 days. moved to leesburg in Late Feb 2010. Do right by Ashburn dude Move back to Ashburn and maybe you’ll change our luck 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I saw the future cast radar on WBAL, it reminds me of those troll systems from 2012-2013. They'd start out as snow, accumulate, look picturesque, warm air bleeds in, snow turns to rain, rain melts all the snow away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 00z ICON is a solid tick SE with the heavier stuff. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: 00z ICON is a solid tick SE with the heavier stuff. looked really good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: 00z ICON is a solid tick SE with the heavier stuff. R/S line went from northern MoCo to DC this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 that is a beatdown i think 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 looked really good. for you! Need a bit more in the metro. But very close to a great run for all… just faster now so lower ceiling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, nj2va said: R/S line went from northern MoCo to DC this run. LP is deeper too....so the precip is heavier! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 55 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Went from a MA special to Congrats New England in under 18 hrs. That's gotta be some sort of record. No. I have seen it so many times before. Usually in that exact time range too. This is why I commented on @psuhoffman 's post last night when he was telling @Deck Pic how much the models have improved and how within 6 days its usually just ironing out minor details. If this holds, the GFS was a major bust. For like 8 runs in a row the GFS was showing a text book MECS. Then all the sudden its QPF was cut in half while the track and intensity decreased dramatically. I cant tell you how many times I have something like this in the exact same time range. I feel like there is no safe lead time around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now