Heisy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Hello All! I posted a similar question on the Penn sub forum but wanted to ask here as well. I have a freshman kid at Penn State in State College, PA. I am going to drive from DC to State College on Sunday. I have never driven to SC in winter conditions. Can anyone give me an idea of how much snow to expect in central PA? Do any of you know how the roads hold up traveling to State College? Thank you for Amy information you can share with me! This storm has sped by so by very early Sunday it won’t be snowing. Roads should be relatively cleared out imo. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, TinGTown said: Hello All! I posted a similar question on the Penn sub forum but wanted to ask here as well. I have a freshman kid at Penn State in State College, PA. I am going to drive from DC to State College on Sunday. I have never driven to SC in winter conditions. Can anyone give me an idea of how much snow to expect in central PA? Do any of you know how the roads hold up traveling to State College? Thank you for Amy information you can share with me! I am not a meteorologist so take what I say with a grain of salt and pay attention to the forecast in the coming days. The storm will be out of the area by sunday mid-day, but roads may still be icy. 22/322 are major roads in central PA so they will get priority treatment. Check traffic cams before you leave: https://www.511pa.com/cameralisting.aspx 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Forgive me but given the last few years and your MO at first glance I thought it said I think 18z euro would have been a torch As of right now I don’t think anything is “trending” per se. guidance picked up on a major shift due to that western SW. euro at 6z. Gfs at 12z. Oddly the ggem had this first then reverted to what other guidance had yesterday. But other than catching on to the trend towards stronger trailing SW that dampens our SW they aren’t trending just settling into the new paradigm. on a side note the ggem does this a lot. Will have an idea then just when everything else trends towards it…it goes off on a tangent. I know it scores better than tie gfs but anecdotally it seems less reliable. If you compare euro and gfs there’s not a ton of difference. Honestly if you showed me them without reference I’d probably choose the euro as the one I’d expect to be “snowier”. Maybe it’s just the GFS sucks with thermals and is always too cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 hour ago, CAPE said: lol thanks. I'm good. If this winter goes as expected, the last 6 weeks or so of met winter should make most in this region happy. Otherwise, I chase. Kinda thinking about hanging out in Gettysburg this weekend. Nice. If you want want to get out of town, the hills NW of Gettysburg are beautiful. Head out route 234 thru arendtsville then up to pine grove furnace. great state park there in the same little mountain ridge zone that makes up catoctin/camp david. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 19 minutes ago, TinGTown said: Hello All! I posted a similar question on the Penn sub forum but wanted to ask here as well. I have a freshman kid at Penn State in State College, PA. I am going to drive from DC to State College on Sunday. I have never driven to SC in winter conditions. Can anyone give me an idea of how much snow to expect in central PA? Do any of you know how the roads hold up traveling to State College? Thank you for Amy information you can share with me! They do a great job on the roads up there. You will be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 How is qpf on the 18z euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 29 minutes ago, Heisy said: 18z gfs vs 18z euro H5 Pressure . If that’s all that I had to go on, I’d say the euro would be the better solution 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: If that’s all that I had to go on, I’d say the euro would be the better solution Same. The high looks to be in a better position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Same. The high looks to be in a better position and 5 mb lower 50/50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 EPS looks similar to 12z but weaker and SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, DarkSharkWX said: EPS looks similar to 12z but weaker and SE Hopefully being SE helps with temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: Hopefully being SE helps with temps? 850 seems SE of DC whole run 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: 850 seems SE of DC whole run Do you have the couple of frames prior? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Snow mean wise it’s actually a decrease, but my guess is that’s more just the max potential slipping away. Curious to see what the median is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Snow mean wise it’s actually a decrease, but my guess is that’s more just the max potential slipping away. Curious to see what the median is. thats j cause less precip it overall held and is still nice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 10 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Do you have the couple of frames prior? Yeah, those maps seem to be near the tail end of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 9 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: Each member is so different from the other. Hard to find a common thread. Some are elongated along 95. Some short and clustered over NE. Some are way south. Hard members for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I think Bob Chill said last night if you are looking for a KU system this is not the storm. I totally agree with that, but something also tells me that this storm is not a nothing. I just have a feeling with these wild swings in modeling last 15 hours that there is data missing whether it be with the northern stream system, southern stream system, or the placement and modeling of the high to the north. My gut tells me that starting with 0z tonight and going out to 6z Thursday the weekend event's actual potential comes into view, and we see some positive changes for snow possibilities. My gut tells me that this is a 3-6" / 4-8" from Washington Dc, Baltimore to Philadelphia to NYC points north and west. I think the further south and east you go it drops off pretty quick to 1-3" then 1" 45 miles from the coast and zero along the coast. Just my thinking right now. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 20 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: A lot of gfs like solutions in there 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 hour ago, TinGTown said: Hello All! I posted a similar question on the Penn sub forum but wanted to ask here as well. I have a freshman kid at Penn State in State College, PA. I am going to drive from DC to State College on Sunday. I have never driven to SC in winter conditions. Can anyone give me an idea of how much snow to expect in central PA? Do any of you know how the roads hold up traveling to State College? Thank you for Amy information you can share with me! I drove from N. VA to PSU in a few snowstorms. Made the trip during the tail end of the PD2 storm! They generally take care of the roads. By Sunday should be ok. If it’s iffy at all take 70 to 99 instead of 15 to 322. Now that 99 is finished that might be faster now anyways. Back in my day the quicker route was 322 from Harrisburg but that can get dicier in snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: A lot of gfs like solutions in there I think that's clearly becoming our path to victory. All southern stream. Weaker but not too weak. 8 to 10 hours of WAA thump. Hopefully a moderate 4 to 8 " storm. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 23 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: iqr, 50th, 75th, 90th 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 24 minutes ago, Ji said: Went from a MA special to Congrats New England in under 18 hrs. That's gotta be some sort of record. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Was hoping to see some sort of update from LWX in tonight's AFD, but not much changes there. I don't envy their jobs right now, but I do admire their restraint. They haven't blinked. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Went from a MA special to Congrats New England in under 18 hrs. That's gotta be some sort of record.I’d lock in that 6-8” all damn day. Honestly, a nice 4-6” storm would be a great way to kick off our new pattern. Certainly prefer the 12+ it showed 1-2 days ago but I won’t be picky given the past several years. . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Went from a MA special to Congrats New England in under 18 hrs. That's gotta be some sort of record. They all do lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 14 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Went from a MA special to Congrats New England in under 18 hrs. That's gotta be some sort of record. Looks like part of the mid Atlantic does just fine 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Hey man you're alive! Hope you’ve been well brother. Here’s to getting a decent snowfall out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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