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January 6-7 Storm Discussion: we’re due?


WxUSAF
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9 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

i'm gonna pull a Ji...

I can see the backend down near Hillsville/Wytheville area. I've had back and forth mix of sleet and freezing rain. Heavy at times but never more than a coating before it flips to the liquid variety. Currently 31.6/31.0 and freezing rain. Trees are pretty lol. 

Update. So, had 0.07 at 7 am CoCoRaHS reading, looking like another 3/4 inch is in the 4" gauge part since and it is still coming down at a decent rate. Just IMAGINE what that would have looked like with just a touch better upper levels and even a 7 or 8 to 1 ratio.....

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Past prime sun time and I’ve dropped from 36.8 to 35.5. 
where is low centered? Maybe when it gets east of our longitude something better might happen. 

You’re wrong again. Take your experience and flush it and start to respect the modeling. You can’t out forecast the models with dated methods and tell pros they are wrong
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13 minutes ago, Ji said:


You’re wrong again. Take your experience and flush it and start to respect the modeling. You can’t out forecast the models with dated methods and tell pros they are wrong

The models did another terrible job and within 4 days showed ranges of 1-11” . By yesterday most of them had a solution like what has happened. The most I ever went for was 3-6”.  They very well may be the “best we have” but they didn’t get it until about 24 hours in advance so despite you being in denial,  they do not warrant “respect” .

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