WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: We don’t have that pattern in place. 3 minutes ago, Ji said: the high is soo far north though Agree. One mitigating factor is a southeast wind is an upslope wind for areas to the west. It would help to have that low actually be more toward the cost than it is currently modeled and to have that high closer to the U.S. border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: yeah this is def gonna be a nowcast event, one small tick/shift colder/warmer is a huge difference esp for like NW moco/E loudoun This is one of those events where we don't really know what's going to happen until the precip actually starts coming down. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Can’t help thinking that this event in Feb or March is a slam dunk with cold Atlantic waters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 33 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: RGEM still hasnt budged. Slight tick north with the vort this run. Starts as snow into the cities and stays all snow west of the Blue Ridge. There it is back to bullseying the wrong house! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Any help thinking that this event in Feb or March is a slam dunk with cold Atlantic waters Guaranteed cold 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 GFS looks warm. Low tracks over southern bay onto Eastern Shore. Not sure the metros will see anything at all out of this. Good luck to those far Northwest folks who still have a chance. Hope you guys get a nice storm. See you in the long range thread! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, osfan24 said: GFS looks warm. Low tracks over southern bay onto Eastern Shore. Not sure the metros will see anything at all out of this. Good luck to those far Northwest folks who still have a chance. Hope you guys get a nice storm. See you in the long range thread! at this point most globals really don't matter, just watch mesos, we likely have to nowcast anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 GFS is wetter again here. I have no sounding at any point that would suggest anything but snow. I’m skeptical of a 5:1 snowfall ratio. One thing is obvious since last night though, the low track is decidedly more inland. As modeled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 23 minutes ago, Ji said: the high is soo far north though The main idea all week has been for the high we’re seeing today to slide right off the coast and a return flow ahead of the next lp. There is the other high building over Canada, but that seems disconnected from the cold we’re seeing today (and too far north). Maybe the higher elevations can still win on cad, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 WB 12Z GFS actually went tick south more like RGEM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: GFS is wetter again here. I have no sounding at any point that would suggest anything but snow. I’m skeptical of a 5:1 snowfall ratio. One thing is obvious since last night though, the low track is decidedly more inland. As modeled. You know the drill, those on the all snow side but close to the R/S line will get hit hardest with that thump and rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, 87storms said: The main idea all week has been for the we’re seeing today to slide right off the coast and a return flow ahead of the next lp. There is the other high building over Canada, but that seems disconnected from the cold we’re seeing today (and too far north). Maybe the higher elevations can still win on cad, though. Higher elevations lose cad the quickest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, nw baltimore wx said: Higher elevations lose cad the quickest. Yea, I don’t mean the western ridges, but maybe the Frederick and Hagerstown valleys. I’m not even sure this is a typical cad setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, 87storms said: Yea, I don’t mean the western ridges, but maybe the Frederick and Hagerstown valleys. I’m not even sure this is a typical cad setup. Yeah, not the typical cad setup. The warm intrusion is off the ocean and not from the southwest. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said: Yeah, not the typical cad setup. The warm intrusion is off the ocean and not from the southwest. yep. once winds shift to come from the east, the warmer air will filter in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Yeah, not the typical cad setup. The warm intrusion is off the ocean and not from the southwest.I think it’s ultimately a product of not having sustained blocking. I wonder if this is the type of setup where the Catoctins help keep Hagerstown on the cold side…almost like a reverse cad lol. Maybe to a lesser degree the rolling hills southeast of Frederick help keep temps at bay. The latter might be wishful thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 The GFS unfortunately has picked up a stronger southerly wind at 850 across the metro the 3k NAM was showing earlier. Hope its wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 51 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: We don’t have that pattern in place. Incorrect. We just experienced the coldest, lowest dew point of the season and it got here about 20 hours ago and won’t go away quick 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 GFS looks awesome for the Northern Shenandoah Valley and the Panhandle. Heavy snow bomb during the daylight hours. Sign me up. Very similar to the RGEM with total qpf: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: GFS looks awesome for the Northern Shenandoah Valley and the Panhandle. Heavy snow bomb during the daylight hours. Sign me up. Very similar to the RGEM with total qpf: That’s a lot of precip falling in a relatively short time. Hoping the Euro steps up its totals soon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I wonder if there should be a NW/SE division for Frederick and Carroll Counties? (Sorry if there already are). There will be a big difference between say Urbana and Thurmont Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, WVclimo said: That’s a lot of precip falling in a relatively short time. Its gonna look like mashed potatoes falling from the sky 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: GFS looks awesome for the Northern Shenandoah Valley and the Panhandle. Heavy snow bomb during the daylight hours. Sign me up. Very similar to the RGEM with total qpf: Beautiful! 1” of liquid in my IMBY! Hopefully I can get 5 minutes of flurries before the switchover to rain. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 That’s a lot of precip falling in a relatively short time. Hoping the Euro steps up its totals soon.It’d be even sweeter if most of that qpf that falls along I-95 as the gfs depicts falls when temps are still cold enough for frozen. Sucks not having everyone in on the fun for this one. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 20 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said: I wonder if there should be a NW/SE division for Frederick and Carroll Counties? (Sorry if there already are). There will be a big difference between say Urbana and Thurmont I agree with Frederick, use US 15 as the divider. Carroll I'd keep the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Its radar watching time now. Tons of moisture getting tapped out of the gulf right now. Probably why the GFS juiced up a little bit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That’s the big shift on the NAMs. The low position is now drastically mor inland and north than it was at 0z. Hence more southerly wind vs southeast. It evidently is making a huge difference. But the Euro has had that feature for days. Here's a 90hr forecast valid a 7PM Saturday. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Its radar watching time now. Tons of moisture getting tapped out of the gulf right now. Probably why the GFS juiced up a little bit. Good luck out there! I think these are the types of events that can surprise. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 32 here in Westminster it’s definitely a chilly day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 10 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Its radar watching time now. Tons of moisture getting tapped out of the gulf right now. Probably why the GFS juiced up a little bit. If only we could get some of that rain. We got Lucy'd last night. With a 90 percent probability of rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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