NorthArlington101 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: I love how on TT, the 3k NAM keeps accumulating snow even after the flip to rain. the WxBell kuchera, fwiw. Little worse than 12z - just less of a thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 This was a nice suprise from the nam 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: This was a nice suprise from the nam I bet 20 years ago it would've actually looked like that. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, Fozz said: I bet 20 years ago it would've actually looked like that. Yup lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, Fozz said: I bet 20 years ago it would've actually looked like that. You know 20 years ago is still the 2000's 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 For the NW suburbs crew: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 21 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I love how on TT, the 3k NAM keeps accumulating snow even after the flip to rain. That's because the code that accumulates snow is inside the model and is driven by microphysics, and the code that generates precip type is outside of the model and is driven (mostly) by the temperature profiles. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 14 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: For the NW suburbs crew: I think this matters for all of us - best chance the cities have to get on the board is a thump for as long as we can hold onto a favorable thermal profile. Hot and heavy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 5 minutes ago, high risk said: That's because the code that accumulates snow is inside the model and is driven by microphysics, and the code that generates precip type is outside of the model and is driven (mostly) by the temperature profiles. If the code that accumulates snow is inside the model and driven by physics, then why are snow accumulations so wildly different on different websites? Presumably they all use the exact same data from the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I AM GOING TO BE POSITIVE HERE So don't miss it, and snow god's don't make me regret it Something to keep an eye on... I wouldn't expect this per say, but if we are trying to be optimistic I see one thing today that leaves the door open somewhat for a better result NW of 95 here. I am using the 3k NAM but I've noticed the same general trend in the euro its just a couple degrees warmer so not quite as close but going the same way There has been a trend on the euro and NAM to weaken that inverted trough or trowal feature and allowing the developing coastal to develop a more closed circulation sooner. This cools the column some compared to earlier runs. If you look close you can see that in the height fields here The result is the column was VERY close to support snow during the most critical 3 hour period from 95 NW. This was the 12z run... That isn't really close in the yellow area. Looking at soundings it was a pretty thick area of close to 2C above freezing in the mid levels. But look at 18z same time It's REALLY close to supporting snow. I looked at soundings, 850 is about the warmest layer and its barely above freezing in this region. One more move the same as this and it would be snow in this area. I didn't cherry pick this hour...it might even be colder the hour before and after if you look. Before After But this is in the middle of a 3 hour period where this area gets .3-.5 qpf. If it were to be 1 degree colder that would mean a 3-4" thump in this area. It's possible, not likely but possible, that if this were to be just 1 degree colder than guidance thinks...suddenly if flips the other way in this area. 21 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 31 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I love how on TT, the 3k NAM keeps accumulating snow even after the flip to rain. You know a threat has gone sideways when the TT snow maps start showing up 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 18z RGEM ticked better for the cities... better for everyone, really. Still goes nutso for our favored spots. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Rgem is solid for NW crew not that it matters 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Yeah would just look at rgem as a trend. Its snowfall numbers are frequently bonkers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 6 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Rgem is solid for NW crew not that it matters It all matters when we’re looking for snow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 WB 18Z RDPS 25% of this would be more than I have had in over 2 years.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 47 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I love how on TT, the 3k NAM keeps accumulating snow even after the flip to rain. TT is actually run out of @Jebmanbasement. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 13 minutes ago, notvirga! said: Yeah would just look at rgem as a trend. Its snowfall numbers are frequently bonkers It’s not just snowfall. Look at its precip totals. I’m telling you guys that’s the key. Heavy precip will do the trick for a lot of people. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 15 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z RDPS 25% of this would be more than I have had in over 2 years.... If this holds then I’m skinning all the way to the top of Whitetail even if they’re too bone-headed to reopen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 25 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 18z RGEM ticked better for the cities... better for everyone, really. Still goes nutso for our favored spots. Rgem snow algorithm must be more generous. Its thermals are almost identical to the 3k I posted but it leans snow v rain on those clown maps. It is wetter too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Gfs looks slightly colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It’s not just snowfall. Look at its precip totals. I’m telling you guys that’s the key. Heavy precip will do the trick for a lot of people. I agree with you about that. Definitely will need the heavy precip for good accumulations but no one is getting a foot of snow in Winchester, 3-6 or 4-8 is probably top end. This is the model that gave me 45 inches in one storm a couple years ago and I got 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 28 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said: If the code that accumulates snow is inside the model and driven by physics, then why are snow accumulations so wildly different on different websites? Presumably they all use the exact same data from the model. Do you have an example? The 10:1 maps should be the same everywhere. The snow depth maps should be too, except that while Tropical Tidbits only counts positive changes in depth (i.e. they ignore when the amount goes down due to melting or compacting), while others may count any change. Even the Kuchera method should, in theory, yield the same result across sites. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 18z GFS splashes my neck of the woods with a half-inch tomorrow evening, up from snow TV in most prior runs. I'll let you folks know how she's coming in as she steers across the middle of the country. Rooting for y'all to get a hit after a very disappointing winter last year. Good luck! 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Gfs looks slightly colder at the 850 level. This kind of stuff basically kills the thump in the cities. does it ever go the opposite way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: at the 850 level. This kind of stuff basically kills the thump in the cities. does it ever go the opposite way? As others have said, the GFS (and/or all the models) have to get QPF and/or intensity right to get surface temps correct. DP's leading in are cold, give folks heavy precip and I'm thinking they'll roll the dice - a la what PSU said. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: at the 850 level. This kind of stuff basically kills the thump in the cities. does it ever go the opposite way? A degree or so in F is noise. Nothing has changed today. Still time to bleed colder and the mesos can catch that better than the globals. Also, higher thumpy qpf will help, not hurt. 18z is a bit lighter than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Personally, in these really marginal temp event, I use the snow depth product. It's more conservative with amounts which is a good think. If it's really cold other snow maps are probably preferable. The GFS snowdepth product from the 18Z run. 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umdterps29 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Is this the type of storm that will have upslope for the Garrett County area? If so, is the upslope intensity usually modeled pretty accurately, or is it typically more/less intense than what is shown on these models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 This particular frame from the euro gives me hope. It tries to stay frozen not far from D.C. almost up to the end of the precip. With these dynamics from this map, would that imply sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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