psuhoffman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 25 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: But it's cold enough close enough, what else other than the boogie man is causing this to not be an all snow event? But it's not really cold enough Below is the mid level thermals heading into the event and I put in purple the bare minimum of where we really want that to be at this point based on case studies of historical similar situations that lead to snow. Now, for your second part...what COULD have changed this part of the equation. Had the NS wave to its NW not been there at all and we had a banana high over the top, or if that was weaker I don't know exactly to what degree changes the equation enough but you get the point. Had the whole thing been faster and the initial NS SW phased partially maybe we get a tighter wound colder system and with that track...that could have worked. There are little things you could adjust to make this snow. I am NOT saying we can't get snow. It's not all or nothing. There are still ways to overcome warming. I think when we get a legit block soon our chances go way up! But 2 things can be true. It's also true that if you cool the entire thermal profile about 3-4 degrees F going into this event then DC is most definitely at the least about to end their 1" less snow streak. And frankly the streak wouldn't even exist within that paradigm because there have been several waves during that time where if it was a few degrees colder (F not C) DC would have likely got at least an inch or two. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I'm like 2 miles east of a WSW 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 47 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Other than the euro, the bleeding has stopped. For now… IMO the worst Euro run was 0z last night. 6z was notably better IMO, and 12z was SLIGHTLY but probably noise better than 6z. Problem is 0z got so warm that the incremental improvements since don't do much for the immediate DC area, hell they barely improve my chances even, yet. But if we were to see another slight colder adjustment on subsequent Euro runs it could end up improving the NW suburbs chances of some snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I'm like 2 miles east of a WSW Same. Quite close to the Frederick county border. Still think my area can manage a solid 3-5” out of this if we’re just a tad cooler than progged come game time. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxtrix Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Advisory: Winter Storm Watch until 07:00PM Saturday Dear Nixle User, * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations in excess of five inches, and ice accumulations in excess of one-quarter of an inch are possible. * WHERE...Portions of western Maryland, central, northern, and northwest Virginia and eastern and panhandle West Virginia. * WHEN...From Saturday morning through Saturday evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.* AFFECTED AREAS: EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY ... CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY ... ROCKINGHAM ... SHENANDOAH ... FREDERICK ... PAGE ... WARREN ... CLARKE ... GREENE ... MADISON ... RAPPAHANNOCK ... NORTHERN FAUQUIER ... WESTERN LOUDOUN ... NORTHERN VIRGINIA BLUE RIDGE ... HAMPSHIRE ... MORGAN ... BERKELEY ... JEFFERSON ... HARDY ... WESTERN GRANT ... EASTERN GRANT ... WESTERN MINERAL ... EASTERN MINERAL ... WESTERN PENDLETON ... EASTERN PENDLETON 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Fresh cold air coming in now and I’ve dropped from 43.5 at 1:45 to 42.2 at 2:45. It will have been established here about 42 hours at onset. I like 36 best and don’t like 60+ . The drop in temp when dew point, temp and precip join together will rule the roost. I’m thinking we get a 50% meeting so if my backyard is 36/25 at 11am just at onset then I’m 31-32F at 85-90%rh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 11 minutes ago, jayyy said: Very pre mature? They have to issue watches at some point. More than half of guidance shows 4-8” out that way. They are issued for safety reasons to warn the public of the possibility, not to appease weenie dreams. They can always downgrade to an advisory closer to game time if need be. . There is this feature called ignore 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Curious what the 18z 3k NAM has to say. Pretty much solely focused on thermals at this point. A nudge in the colder direction would be nice to see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Well, been a fun few days for me. Good news, tested negative for Covid. Bad news is it’s still a tough URI to deal with. I haven’t had too much to add to what’s already been said. I’ll try to have a map out at some point. If not, I’ll list towns with my forecast and you can gauge from that. I like @Ellinwood map and would likely be very similar to mine, so you can use as a proxy. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: Check LWX. Hoisted watch for west of 15 I’m just a few miles east. Likely going to get an advisory closer in I'm about a mile west of Rt 15. I'm going to count this as being west lol. Edit: I'm technically almost 2 miles nw of Rt. 15, so I'm definitely considering that meteorologically west. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: But it's not really cold enough Below is the mid level thermals heading into the event and I put in purple the bare minimum of where we really want that to be at this point based on case studies of historical similar situations that lead to snow. Now, for your second part...what COULD have changed this part of the equation. Had the NS wave to its NW not been there at all and we had a banana high over the top, or if that was weaker I don't know exactly to what degree changes the equation enough but you get the point. Had the whole thing been faster and the initial NS SW phased partially maybe we get a tighter wound colder system and with that track...that could have worked. There are little things you could adjust to make this snow. I am NOT saying we can't get snow. It's not all or nothing. There are still ways to overcome warming. I think when we get a legit block soon our chances go way up! But 2 things can be true. It's also true that if you cool the entire thermal profile about 3-4 degrees F going into this event then DC is most definitely at the least about to end their 1" less snow streak. And frankly the streak wouldn't even exist within that paradigm because there have been several waves during that time where if it was a few degrees colder (F not C) DC would have likely got at least an inch or two. Euro was the first to pick up on the mid level warmth issue on its Monday night run. The best runs for the storm showed a Saturday night into Sunday storm w a different setup vs the Saturday storm we have now so who knows if that initial scenario would’ve worked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Afternoon AFD from LWX om the threat SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Chilly conditions continue Friday night as lows drop to the 20s across the area, even as mid to high level clouds overspread the region. A southern stream upper trough moves east across the Mid- South toward the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic Saturday into Saturday night. An associated surface low pressure will move across the Southeast, gaining strength/structure as it moves across eastern NC Saturday, then offshore just south of the Delmarva peninsula Saturday night. Precipitation begins to overspread the region from southwest to northeast early Saturday morning. P-type is likely to start as light snow given temp profiles mostly below freezing, especially west of I- 95. Models continue to fluctuate with storm track and inherent thermal profiles. Greatest potential for the H85 temps to remain below freezing is generally northwest of US-15, hence where the Winter Storm Watch was issued. As a result, a wintry mix is likely to start to the east of this area, then quickly transition to a cold rain. The chance for any accumulating snow just along/east of I-95 looks low at this time. A wintry mix of rain, snow, and freezing rain is likely west of US- 15, and especially west of the Blue Ridge where a CAD is likely to setup. Looking specifically at freezing rain, chance for this p-type has increased the most across the Central Shenandoah Valley and Central VA Blue Ridge, including some of the foothills east of the Blue Ridge. Accumulating snow is most likely along and west of the Blue Ridge, especially in the northern Shenandoah Valley west to the Allegheny Front. Greatest prob for 6" is from the Allegheny Front to the Washington County, MD area. However, there are concerns sleet may mix in and lower totals. As the surface low makes its closest approach, there will be some decent FGEN forcing to produce higher precip totals in any banding features. But it is way too early to say when/where/what p-type that is going to be. Given the event onset is beyond 48 hours, the current forecast is subject to change. Continue to monitor the progress of this system. The entire system quickly crosses the area Saturday night, though the upper trough remains over the area through the weekend. Lingering moisture on the backside of the low and strong forcing aloft will result in additional rain/snow showers Saturday night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Nam is a bit better heading into the storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 11 minutes ago, jayyy said: Very pre mature? They have to issue watches at some point. More than half of guidance shows 4-8” out that way. They are issued for safety reasons to warn the public of the possibility, not to appease weenie dreams. They can always downgrade to an advisory closer to game time if need be. . I understand the 36 hr. timeframe guidance. But 50% confidence in meeting warning criteria?? The deterministic ECM is the only model minimally meeting warning criteria for most of Augusta and no model does for Nelson or Albermarle. GFS 2.5", GEM 1.3", NAM 1.5". But, as you say, they can always downgrade to an Advisory and they will unless a radical change occurs with the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 40 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: hmmm... sure it'll be refined but I'd consider a light chase if 5"+ ends up being the forecast. just in case... you know... it never snows again. I’m kind of in the same mindset. If it’s 35 imby and ripping unknown precip and an hour away someone is getting 32, +SN and expecting 6-8” And it’s Saturday afternoon. Might have to send it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 NAM would probably break DCA inch streak at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 NAM saves the day for my area...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 18z 3km NAM is over half an inch of ice in the central Blue Ridge 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 25 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Fresh cold air coming in now and I’ve dropped from 43.5 at 1:45 to 42.2 at 2:45. It will have been established here about 42 hours at onset. I like 36 best and don’t like 60+ . The drop in temp when dew point, temp and precip join together will rule the roost. I’m thinking we get a 50% meeting so if my backyard is 36/25 at 11am just at onset then I’m 31-32F at 85-90%rh Dew point plummet warning in effect From 29 at 10am at DCA to 21 at 3pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, Interstate said: NAM saves the day for my area...lol NE MD pummeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 BWI plumes went up some big hits on the individuals now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 So far difference in nam from 12 z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 11 minutes ago, yoda said: 18z 3km NAM is over half an inch of ice in the Blue Ridge temps marginal and precip isn't super light... color me a bit skeptical as someone who lived in cville for 4 years and saw sig ice once despite it being modeled probably 3-4x a year. Now on the Blue Ridge itself... yeah. This seems like the kind of storm that closes the Parkway for 3 weeks... especially when you factor in a follow up next tues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 5 minutes ago, yoda said: 18z 3km NAM is over half an inch of ice in the central Blue Ridge Thanks LC 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Less precipitation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 hour ago, 87storms said: The fun part is that it keeps trending worse. Best chance at this point is that either (a) the bleeding stops, and/or (2) cad is underdone. The upper air pattern is not ideal. Honestly, looking at it, I wouldn't even think we'd get snow from it, but luckily we have at least some residual cold air to work with. It'll be interesting to see how the storm ultimately plays out, but I'd be ok with it just simply starting as snow at this point east of the Blue Ridge. I agree!! Just take what we can from this one and wait for next one in 10 days or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, dallen7908 said: Less precipitation? Less precip but a noticeable shift east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 just need a couple degrees at 850 to make the 3k NAM run more fun for everyone... it must at least theoretically be possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Put faith in the NAM. Go ahead 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: just need a couple degrees at 850 to make the 3k NAM run more fun for everyone... it must at least theoretically be possible. I love how on TT, the 3k NAM keeps accumulating snow even after the flip to rain. 3 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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