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January 6-7 Storm Discussion: we’re due?


WxUSAF
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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

IMG_0792.thumb.gif.3dff530a65354ed3d89bb0cf3e70146c.gif
maybe someday we can get a perfect track…well ok but it’s a Nina we can’t expect…umm never mind. 

Why is it the surface low is ideal, but the mid-levels are a mess?  I don't feel like this is just a "it's just not cold enough" situation.  To me, it seems like we just simply lack blocking due to a consistently messy Pacific and/or Atlantic...flip a coin.

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Just now, 87storms said:

Why is it the surface low is ideal, but the mid-levels are a mess?  I don't feel like this is just a "it's just not cold enough" situation.  To me, it seems like we just simply lack blocking due to a consistently messy Pacific and/or Atlantic...flip a coin.

Both sides of the same coin. No blocking and too fast pacific

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Todays has been at worst a hold the line day. Actually I think we’ve seen some positives. Perhaps this trends our way as we move forward 

Other than the euro, the bleeding has stopped. 

For now…

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Just now, Terpeast said:

Other than the euro, the bleeding has stopped. 

For now…

The euro got better. Everyone’s individual backyard snow map may not have but by increasing the precip and coverage, I think it upped our chances. The 850’s don’t really jump for most. So heavier precip, the low fees to start and the cold to start combined with heavy precip might just do the trick. Fingers crossed

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2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The euro got better. Everyone’s individual backyard snow map may not have but by increasing the precip and coverage, I think it upped our chances. The 850’s don’t really jump for most. So heavier precip, the low fees to start and the cold to start combined with heavy precip might just do the trick. Fingers crossed

Just checked, its a smidge better. Probably noise

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3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The euro got better. Everyone’s individual backyard snow map may not have but by increasing the precip and coverage, I think it upped our chances. The 850’s don’t really jump for most. So heavier precip, the low fees to start and the cold to start combined with heavy precip might just do the trick. Fingers crossed

Beet juice already down on 66 near centreville...:clown:

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12 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Todays has been at worst a hold the line day. Actually I think we’ve seen some positives. Perhaps this trends our way as we move forward 

I do think perhaps we've reached the end of how bad this can degrade.  The track isn't actually trending at all...its just the mid level thermals are trending warmer.  There is likely a limit to how far NW of the low the mid level warm layer can get and I think we are close to that now.  

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1 minute ago, aldie 22 said:

But it's cold enough close enough, what else other than the boogie man is causing this to not be an all snow event?

Not really! Look at our big storms and check the temperature of cities north and west of us.  Saturday morning is barely below freezing in Chicago Detroit buffalo and saranac lake.  It’s just not cold enough.  

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
221 PM EST Thu Jan 4 2024

MDZ003-004-050330-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0001.240106T1500Z-240107T0300Z/
Washington-Frederick MD-
221 PM EST Thu Jan 4 2024

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
  accumulations in excess of five inches, and ice accumulations
  in excess of one-quarter of an inch are possible.

* WHERE...Washington and Frederick MD Counties.

* WHEN...From Saturday morning through Saturday evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&
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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
221 PM EST Thu Jan 4 2024

VAZ025-036-037-503-504-508-050330-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0001.240106T0900Z-240107T0000Z/
Augusta-Nelson-Albemarle-Western Highland-Eastern Highland-
Central Virginia Blue Ridge-
221 PM EST Thu Jan 4 2024

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
  accumulations in excess of five inches, and ice accumulations
  in excess of one-quarter of an inch are possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central and western Virginia.

* WHEN...From late Friday night through Saturday evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.
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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
221 PM EST Thu Jan 4 2024

MDZ501-502-VAZ026>031-038>040-501-505-507-WVZ050>053-055-501>506-
050330-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0001.240106T1200Z-240107T0000Z/
Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-Rockingham-
Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Greene-Madison-
Rappahannock-Northern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-
Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-
Hardy-Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-
Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton-
221 PM EST Thu Jan 4 2024

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
  accumulations in excess of five inches, and ice accumulations
  in excess of one-quarter of an inch are possible.

* WHERE...Portions of western Maryland, central, northern, and
  northwest Virginia and eastern and panhandle West Virginia.

* WHEN...From Saturday morning through Saturday evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.
 
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7 minutes ago, yoda said:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
221 PM EST Thu Jan 4 2024

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
  accumulations in excess of five inches, and ice accumulations
  in excess of one-quarter of an inch are possible.

hmmm... sure it'll be refined but I'd consider a light chase if 5"+ ends up being the forecast. just in case... you know... it never snows again.

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From 00z to 12z, most of the models settled into a 1 - 3 inch special west of the Blue Ridge in the Central Valley.  All except the Euro.  It increased my snow from 2.6" to 5 inches!  The EPS increased from 3.1 to 4.3.   It has increased the qp from .48" to .72" but the borderline 850 and 925 is playing hopscotch all over the place.

My forecast west of the BR is 2 - 4".   For D.C. proper, a trace to 1 inch.

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2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

hmmm... sure it'll be refined but I'd consider a light chase if 5"+ ends up being the forecast. just in case... you know... it never snows again.

I think they’re hedging on either 5” snow or 0.25” ice. The latter more likely further south. But this doesn’t scream ice storm to me

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4 minutes ago, stormy said:

From 00z to 12z, most of the models settled into a 1 - 3 inch special west of the Blue Ridge in the Central Valley.  All except the Euro.  It increased my snow from 2.6" to 5 inches!  The EPS increased from 3.1 to 4.3.   It has increased the qp from .48" to .72" but the borderline 850 and 925 is playing hopscotch all over the place.

My forecast west of the BR is 2 - 4".   For D.C. proper, a trace to 1 inch.

Shew, thank goodness 

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