Weather Will Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 WB 6Z GFS....again have to watch the temps. But wintry mix for NW zones is on the table for Saturday. Details TBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 WB 6Z 3K NAM. Temp. Profiles as Precip moving in 1 pm Sat. What I will be watching the next two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 WB 6Z RDPSSo close but no cigar for the metros . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Early call from NWS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 9 minutes ago, WVclimo said: Early call from NWS Not sure if those are rain or snow values, could be either. Smh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 Bummer. Good luck far N/W folks! This doesn’t look like the one that’s going to break the record long streak without 1” of snow for any of DC-Baltimore-Philly-NYC. Maybe IAD still has a chance? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EstorilM Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Wow this seemed like a lock for Northern VA, then again people always say you never want to be in the bullseye ~5 days out - all it can do is “trend” away from you lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 The trends for this aren’t good. I feel it’s entirely possible that by this time tomorrow we are looking at a snow to start briefly before changing to light rain basically region wide. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Unfortunately, when we were already with little wiggle room a few days ago and given the temperature profile leading in, this going northwest was always the most likely result. Given what we have seen with the lack of cold the past however many years, it only reinforced that. Good luck to all of the climo favored folks! Hope you get a nice thump and have a fun afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 11 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The trends for this aren’t good. I feel it’s entirely possible that by this time tomorrow we are looking at a snow to start briefly before changing to light rain basically region wide. At this point I'll even say that the last several runs do equal a trend....bummer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umdterps29 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Those NWS totals for Deep Creek are disappointingly low. I can’t believe there is now a chance of some mixing even out there. I thought i would be in for a pretty good storm regardless out there and now that’s looking very questionable. Bummer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 6z Euro 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 6z EuroBetter than 00Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GFS....again have to watch the temps. But wintry mix for NW zones is on the table for Saturday. Details TBD. So wait VA went from an historic snow event to an ice storm in 36 hours? Honest question, haven't been following that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: So wait VA went from an historic snow event to an ice storm in 36 hours? Honest question, haven't been following that area. Yes Blacksburg actually wrote a nice little AFD this morning talking about the fact that they had a meeting with neighboring Wfo’s along with WPC. Foothills of NC went ahead and issued a winter storm watch post meeting but Blacksburg didn’t feel like they have the 50% threshold met yet with snow/ice to pull the trigger. I’ve seen some models pump out like .4 of ice down here which would be really bad.. if that starts to come to fruition I could see them possibly changing their mind as that would be pretty impactful in this area and the first moderate winter event in a couple years. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Will not be surprised if there is zero accumulation of any snow that may fall here. I can only imagine precip rates will not overcome warmth and afternoon timing. This feels like one of those events where rural and elevated areas get accumulation and Stephens City gets some slush in the grass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EstorilM Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Wasn’t the euro saying “warmer, faster, and NW” like 4-5 days ago, when we kept calling it an outlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 7 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Will not be surprised if there is zero accumulation of any snow that may fall here. I can only imagine precip rates will not overcome warmth and afternoon timing. This feels like one of those events where rural and elevated areas get accumulation and Stephens City gets some slush in the grass. I think 1-3” before the flip is a reasonable call Loudoun-MoCo and west. Fairfax county might struggle to reach an inch. Higher elevations or west of 81 may see 2-4” locally 5” Best we can hope for is that thermals tick a bit colder and we hold the flip off an extra hour or two 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, EstorilM said: Wasn’t the euro saying “warmer, faster, and NW” like 4-5 days ago, when we kept calling it an outlier? It drew a line right over us 5 days ago. We want that line to be 50-100 miles south of us so we’re still good even if it trended north even a little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 55 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: So wait VA went from an historic snow event to an ice storm in 36 hours? Honest question, haven't been following that area. Ice is becoming more of a concern this morning in Augusta County. My 3 model blend for 10:1 snow is still 5 inches but now up to .40" FR and 1 inch of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 29 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Will not be surprised if there is zero accumulation of any snow that may fall here. I can only imagine precip rates will not overcome warmth and afternoon timing. This feels like one of those events where rural and elevated areas get accumulation and Stephens City gets some slush in the grass. You will get snow. The dew points and temps out here heading in are good. It's not gonna be the foot+ that was being spit out by the models a couple of days ago. But it will snow out here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Precip moving in at 15z sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EstorilM Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Sterling WFO seems to have thrown in the towel. Given that it’s Thursday, I don’t think you can say they “got it wrong” - but certainly a very different forecast than a few days ago. “…. P-type is likely to start as light snow given temp profiles mostly below freezing, especially west of I- 95. However, most models have trended warmer in the low-levels east of the Blue Ridge, especially with the 850mb being at or above freezing east of US-15. As a result, a wintry mix is likely to start, then quickly transition to a cold rain. The chance for any accumulating snow just along/east of I-95 looks very low at this time.” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I am choosing to believe that this panel on the 3k nam is true. it holds for a few hours but 850s are warming (winds out of the south at that level) verbatim on the NAM 3k, north of I-70 could hold as snow most of the afternoon? someone please correct me if I'm wrong 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Been awhile... I could see some "boom" areas in the far NW burbs of the I-95 corridor if there's heavy rates late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening, otherwise I'm more pessimistic than optimistic. Lines up fairly well with the NWS at least from Philly southward. 25 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Sounding IMBY per NAM (looking at 3k and 12k) and I hover right at 31/32 the entire time. If it's dumping precip, it should be snow. A sneaky warm nose pops up around hr66 but precip is moving out by then. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3k Temps and Dews just before precip starts. I think its going to be close for the metros. But I think it would start as snow there as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 hour ago, clskinsfan said: You will get snow. The dew points and temps out here heading in are good. It's not gonna be the foot+ that was being spit out by the models a couple of days ago. But it will snow out here. How confident are you? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 12z 3k NAM looks pretty similar to the 12/16/20 storm with a heavy burst of snow initially across the metro area then watched the CC line move steadily NW; wasn't a bad storm here w around 3 inches and dumped ~6 inches in Frederick https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/12/17/snow-ice-dc-md-va/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 NAM keeps leesburg alive 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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