Jersey Andrew Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 10:28 PM, psuhoffman said: for those that want to feel better, or worse, for a few hours Expand That could be massive disappointment for me in SW Fairfax County. I”m hoping 3-6 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 Just got back from the gym how are the trends? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 10:28 PM, psuhoffman said: for those that want to feel better, or worse, for a few hours Expand I would sign up for this is a heartbeat. It gives me 6-7”. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Junkie Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 10:32 PM, aldie 22 said: Just got back from the gym how are the trends? Expand Depends. If you were at gym for 25 hours….horrendously typical. If you had a 20 min workout, a bit improved 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 10:28 PM, psuhoffman said: for those that want to feel better, or worse, for a few hours Here we go again… 18z ticks SE, 0z will likely tick further SE…. Rinse and repeat . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx12 Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 So far, so good. For warmistas in the DC heat island. Please have your shovels on standby if Febbbsry materializes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 10:33 PM, ravensrule said: I would sign up for this is a heartbeat. It gives me 6-7”.Indeed. I’d take that pink shading and run with it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 10:32 PM, aldie 22 said: Just got back from the gym how are the trends? Expand Current trend is telling the thread how much the latest model gets you in your own backyard. eta: looks about 9” for me! Lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 10:29 PM, Weather Will said: Looks great to me! WB 18Z GFSThis feels like one of those storms where Rockville could get a few inches while dc is mixing. Darnestown/Germantown is also another snow magnet that seems to do significantly better than Rockville…at least back in the day. I’m still learning about Frederick, but maybe this is the storm where I finally benefit from this move in the snow department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeDeeHCue Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 GFS came back like it "forgot" Howard County in the previous run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 18 z GFS focuses heavier qp to inland areas. That makes the difference with snowfall totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TinGTown Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 10:28 PM, psuhoffman said: for those that want to feel better, or worse, for a few hours Expand Hello PSU! I have a question for you. Thousands of kids are driving to State College from the DMV and surrounding areas this weekend. What is you take for State College and the surrounding areas for snowfall amounts and driving conditions Sunday? Breezewood is almost the half way point from DC to State College and even during fall days the fog on 70 )at the upper elevations) gives almost zero visibility. I can't imagine the fog and snow combined. Thanks for your help! I appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eddygeeme Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 10:37 PM, 87storms said: This feels like one of those storms where Rockville could get a few inches while dc is mixing. Darnestown/Germantown is also another snow magnet that seems to do significantly better than Rockville…at least back in the day. I’m still learning about Frederick, but maybe this is the storm where I finally benefit from this move in the snow department. Expand Indeed the last change over event here in Germantown we overperformed I live off exit 16 by Clarksburg and heading up to Damascus. We got 2inches out of what was suppose to be just over a trace. Been living at this location for 8 yrs and it "feels" like one of those situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 10:31 PM, psuhoffman said: Expand lol nice self portrait. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 10:29 PM, Weather Will said: Looks great to me! WB 18Z GFS Expand You were just moaning about how bad the models are. Purely emotional reaction based on desired outcome. Just like I said lol. 8 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 10:42 PM, TinGTown said: Hello PSU! I have a question for you. Thousands of kids are driving to State College from the DMV and surrounding areas this weekend. What is you take for State College and the surrounding areas for snowfall amounts and driving conditions Sunday? Breezewood is almost the half way point from DC to State College and even during fall days the fog on 70 )at the upper elevations) gives almost zero visibility. I can't imagine the fog and snow combined. Thanks for your help! I appreciate it. Expand This is more banter, but…. i make the drive to PSU regularly throughout the year and for the last 25 years. Roads on Sunday will largely be fine. Your usual icy spots, but there shouldn’t be any major issues on the primary roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
str8liner Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 10:42 PM, TinGTown said: Hello PSU! I have a question for you. Thousands of kids are driving to State College from the DMV and surrounding areas this weekend. What is you take for State College and the surrounding areas for snowfall amounts and driving conditions Sunday? Breezewood is almost the half way point from DC to State College and even during fall days the fog on 70 )at the upper elevations) gives almost zero visibility. I can't imagine the fog and snow combined. Thanks for your help! I appreciate it. Expand https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/breezewood/15533/weather-forecast/2215530 I live close to Breezewood and if we get 6-10 like that Accuweather forecast is predicting you do not want to be on the Turnpike or 70 Saturday. They meet at Breezewood. If it gets bad enough the Turnpike gets shut down, and Town Hill Mountain on 70 coming up from DC gets bad. I99, that is near me too is also bad for wecks during snowstorms. Many use 99 to go to State College from here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 10:48 PM, snowfan said: This is more banter, but…. i make the drive to PSU regularly throughout the year and for the last 25 years. Roads on Sunday will largely be fine. Your usual icy spots, but there shouldn’t be any major issues on the primary roads. Expand That should be "primary highways".................... Only secondaries are "roads"..... education is priceless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 10:28 PM, psuhoffman said: for those that want to feel better, or worse, for a few hours Expand My gosh look at that gradient over just the 23 miles between Damascus at the top of Mont Co and Silver Spring! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 So they will oscillate 20-30 miles rest of the way . I’m hoping by Friday 3pm ish that we can see what’s happening, For now just roll with the 6 hour . is that realistic time to be able to identify on Friday ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 Happy to see the HH GFS, but kinda hard to get too invested when models can't even agree on what kind of storm this is going to be... or if there is even going to be one. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 10:44 PM, eddygeeme said: Indeed the last change over event here in Germantown we overperformed I live off exit 16 by Clarksburg and heading up to Damascus. We got 2inches out of what was suppose to be just over a trace. Been living at this location for 8 yrs and it "feels" like one of those situations. Expand This is indeed the type of setup where Parrs Ridge typically does well. Edited to add: Those low level ESE and E winds advecting moisture in combined with the upglide can really wring things out on a front end thump like that at Parrs Ridge. Take a look at PSU’s post here. Good rationale there as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eddygeeme Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 11:00 PM, BlizzardNole said: My gosh look at that gradient over just the 23 miles between Damascus at the top of Mont Co and Silver Spring! Expand You always want to be on the gradient line I always heard someone will get the thump or the shaft. Hopefully with rates there is more thump for a lot more areas. Pray for chillier temps to hold. Watching the thermals with this will be key. I'll be watching like a hawk starting Friday afternoon to see how cool temps get and how fast cloud cover rolls in Saturday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 11:03 PM, Terpeast said: Happy to see the HH GFS, but kinda hard to get too invested when models can't even agree on what kind of storm this is going to be... or if there is even going to be one. Expand It really has been a difficult storm for the ops and the mesos to nail down specifics like thermals. On the other hand, it seems the ensembles did well, since we have been tracking this specific sw for about 2 weeks now? Pretty impressive on their part. It struck me this week that all of my coworkers have been and are aware of this possible winter threat from 5-7 days out. A lot of progress has been made from times in the 1960s when meteorologists would say light snow tomorrow in Staunton followed by 20+” the next day (in-law family stories) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 10:29 PM, Weather Will said: Looks great to me! WB 18Z GFSPsu just posted that map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 10:58 PM, stormy said: That should be "primary highways".................... Only secondaries are "roads"..... education is priceless. Expand You might want to step away for a bit 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 10:44 PM, eddygeeme said: Indeed the last change over event here in Germantown we overperformed I live off exit 16 by Clarksburg and heading up to Damascus. We got 2inches out of what was suppose to be just over a trace. Been living at this location for 8 yrs and it "feels" like one of those situations. Expand Oh yea, it's a thing. That area is a microclimate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 10:42 PM, TinGTown said: Hello PSU! I have a question for you. Thousands of kids are driving to State College from the DMV and surrounding areas this weekend. What is you take for State College and the surrounding areas for snowfall amounts and driving conditions Sunday? Breezewood is almost the half way point from DC to State College and even during fall days the fog on 70 )at the upper elevations) gives almost zero visibility. I can't imagine the fog and snow combined. Thanks for your help! I appreciate it. Expand Snow should be gone by Sunday. They get the roads clear fast. 70 and 99 should be ok. I drove to PSU from DMV in snow several times and had no problems. But I use common sense like slow down when it’s icy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 An observation tells me we are still in the game for Saturday though some are giving up. 24 hours ago my 3 model blend for Augusta was 7 inches. Now, that same GFS, ECM and GEM blend is 7.3 inches. As I said 24 hours ago.................. These models will hone in on a solution by tomorrow afternoon. It will not be a human solution, it will be the models. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 11:17 PM, stormy said: An observation tells me we are still in the game for Saturday though some are giving up. 24 hours ago my 3 model blend for Augusta was 7 inches. Now, that same GFS, ECM and GEM blend is 7.3 inches. As I said 24 hours ago.................. These models will hone in on a solution by tomorrow afternoon. It will not be a human solution, it will be the models. Expand See what I mean? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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