WEATHER53 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 29 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: 18Z NAM even have any precip? These models are all over the place Because they were created and are maintained to show examples rather than a statistically dominant outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 RGEM holds for I-81 and other favored spots but the RA/SN line jumped NWYea it’s a toaster bath for dc-Philly etc. Think the inch less streak continues unfortunately. . 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 WB NAM v. Can. pretty stark differences, forget the rain/ snow line. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Regional models are very difficult to initialize and obtain boundary conditions for. They shouldn't be looked at in a vacuum. They are best when used as an ensemble member. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I "like" the RGEM take on things, probably a bit too wet but good representation of what we're thermally dealing with. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 In last 24-36 hours I’ve seen 0.5” for Kemp Mill and 11”. This is the mire of status quoof models. In 2024 it’s not good science and not good weather forecasting. It Is Excellent for discussing most every possible outcome during a two day time frame every six hours presentations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, WEATHER53 said: In last 24-36 hours I’ve seen 0.5” for Kemp Mill and 11”. This is the mire of status quoof models. In 2024 it’s not good science and not good weather forecasting. It Is Excellent for discussing most every possible outcome during a two day time frame every six hours presentations A model output isn't a forecast. It's a tool to be used to make a forecast. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, WEATHER53 said: In last 24-36 hours I’ve seen 0.5” for Kemp Mill and 11”. This is the mire of status quo models. In 2024 it’s not good science and not good weather forecasting. It Is Excellent for discussing most every possible outcome during a two day time frame every six hours presentations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 It is actually pretty sad that the models are so bad inside 3 days in 2024. Again, not talking about nailing rain/ snow line yet but the general intensity of the storm. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxtrix Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 i’ll enjoy these point and clicks while they last: Snow likely before 1pm, then snow, possibly mixed with rain. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 35. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Saturday Night Snow likely, mainly before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 70%. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: A model output isn't a forecast. It's a tool to be used to make a forecast. See that’s the evasive jibber jabber that helps models stay incompetent You are un successfully trying to parse that each 6 hour presentation is not indicative of upcoming weather but rather a “tool” Tool of what and for what? Why predicting forthcoming weather of course, see tool and Kaos get thrown around during deflections Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 22 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It’s not a fable. In fact, it’s idiotic to think that updated data won’t affect a model output. Obviously updated data helps accuracy. I didn't realize that over land vs over ocean makes that big of a difference with technology these days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 @WxUSAF @Terpeast I'm not too worried about the too amped or sheared out options. I think it will end up with the more favorable in between solution. But I am concerned the thermals might bleed the wrong way anyways and even with the more favorable track/intensity it just ends up too warm. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: It is actually pretty sad that the models are so bad inside 3 days in 2024. Again, not talking about nailing rain/ snow line yet but the general intensity of the storm. Not that uncommon in certain synoptic setups. There is always uncertainty, thus why we rely on the ensembles to quantify it. The general idea for this event has been nailed for days. Emotional people who are rooting for a very specific outcome often complain that the models are 'bad'. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 The GEM's have been the most consistent models. Now they could be consistently wrong. But they have basically been rock solid on their depiction. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @WxUSAF @Terpeast I'm not too worried about the too amped or sheared out options. I think it will end up with the more favorable in between solution. But I am concerned the thermals might bleed the wrong way anyways and even with the more favorable track/intensity it just ends up too warm. Yeah quite possible. That said, if it’s borderline, still could work out. But the confluence and high shifting north don’t provide much confidence things can shift. Could also be a precip rate dependent deal. Heavier precip progs might be colder and vice versa. Things to watch. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 8 minutes ago, Weather Will said: It is actually pretty sad that the models are so bad inside 3 days in 2024. Please remember that when you incessantly post day 15 clown maps 3 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxtrix Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 9 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: See that’s the evasive jibber jabber that helps models stay incompetent You are un successfully trying to parse that each 6 hour presentation is not indicative of upcoming weather but rather a “tool” Tool of what and for what? Why predicting forthcoming weather of course, see tool and Kaos get thrown around during deflections models don’t predict. people do. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 23 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: See that’s the evasive jibber jabber that helps models stay incompetent You are un successfully trying to parse that each 6 hour presentation is not indicative of upcoming weather but rather a “tool” Tool of what and for what? Why predicting forthcoming weather of course, see tool and Kaos get thrown around during deflections What are you talking about? You use them to make your forecasts. You were asking me what the MSLP and location was just the other night on the euro where it passed our latitude and talking about what we need that to be in order to get snow. You're taking the model output, and adjusting with experience. Using it as a tool. You would have had no idea there was going to be a low anywhere near Ocean City on Saturday evening from that range without the models. We can extrapolate for a day or two using current observations but beyond that we would have no idea what the features important to make a forecast would look like 4, 5 ,6 days from now! You have to look at all the guidance, decide how its likely in error, apply your knowledge of what usually happens to adjust for that error and make your best educated guess. How else do you propose you put out a forecast for something more than a couple days away? If they could make them better they would, its not some kind of conspiracy to hide the real weather from us. It's just the limitations of our current scientific and mathmatecal ability. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Yeah quite possible. That said, if it’s borderline, still could work out. But the confluence and high shifting north don’t provide much confidence things can shift. Could also be a precip rate dependent deal. Heavier precip progs might be colder and vice versa. Things to watch. Euro and RGEM today kind of made me a little less optimistic. I was thinking that but they both have 6 hour QPF bombs and are still really really warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Euro and RGEM today kind of made me a little less optimistic. I was thinking that but they both have 6 hour QPF bombs and are still really really warm. RGEM has that N-S oriented trough of warm air aloft like 12z euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 12 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Obviously updated data helps accuracy. I didn't realize that over land vs over ocean makes that big of a difference with technology these days... It used to, it doesn't much anymore in the past 5 years or so. DMV Winds from GOES and NPP-Era sounders do most of the heavy lifting these days. Balloons are good for calibration and reality check. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: RGEM has that N-S oriented trough of warm air aloft like 12z euro. Yea, but isn't that what partially is responsible for the very heavy precip under that trough? The GFS hints at it too but its colder so its ok. But if the Euro is right about the warmer thermals overall, not sure what the win path is there. No trough, no heavier precip, trough, warmer. What are we rooting for there? I guess just the colder GFS thermals to be correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea, but isn't that what partially is responsible for the very heavy precip under that trough? The GFS hints at it too but its colder so its ok. But if the Euro is right about the warmer thermals overall, not sure what the win path is there. No trough, no heavier precip, trough, warmer. What are we rooting for there? I guess just the colder GFS thermals to be correct? Uh oh, could this one be going in the book? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Uh oh, could this one be going in the book? Kocin’s book?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 GFS seems better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, ravensrule said: Kocin’s book?. LOL, uhhhhh no. The book about storms that should work but no longer do for reasons we cannot talk about. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: GFS seems better? Little colder for Nw crew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Uh oh, could this one be going in the book? This one is more complicated IMO than some of the clearer examples of storms in the last 5 years or so that I am convinced we lost a 1-3 or 2-4" snow around DC due to warming temps. Plus its not over yet, maybe things trend colder again, I was just pointing out that synoptically I don't see much other to root for than "just be colder". Plus I am not in the mood to argue with the "don't talk about that" crew anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: Little colder for Nw crew Could about walk from places with <1” to 8”. Razor thin gradient. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now