psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 8:41 PM, NorthArlington101 said: 18z NAM actually is better lol. Looks a bit colder - might be picking up on at least some light WAA snows as the system moves in too. Falls apart really fast. Mountains will hate it. But likely better for DC. "South and very weak" scenario. Expand Can we take the colder airmass on the NAM and apply it to the euro precip? 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 8:50 PM, notvirga! said: Aren’t we like 24 hours away from the nams even being remotely accurate? Expand We are at nearly optimal range for a completely unrealistic NAM'ing tho 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 8:52 PM, psuhoffman said: Can we take the colder airmass on the NAM and apply it to the euro precip? Expand 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 8:52 PM, SnowDreamer said: We are at nearly optimal range for a completely unrealistic NAM'ing tho Expand 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 8:43 PM, NorthArlington101 said: it's pathetic... it's almost beautiful. I-95 jackpot though and "colder" Expand Short Pump jackpot? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 5:48 PM, aldie 22 said: I was living in Woodbridge at the time and recall seeing on the news that Leesburg was getting hammered with snow while it was pouring rain at my house. On that day Leesburg 04 was born Expand You needed to have a screen name Woodbridge 04 You understand how bad Woodbridge is in many snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 i95 special 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 8:41 PM, NorthArlington101 said: 18z NAM actually is better lol. Looks a bit colder - might be picking up on at least some light WAA snows as the system moves in too. Falls apart really fast. Mountains will hate it. But likely better for DC. "South and very weak" scenario. Expand Good to see your ability to analyze a model has improved. It's best to just not analyze the LR NAM, if we took that approach, you could have saved some face there. Short Pump jackpot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 9:03 PM, DDweatherman said: Good to see your ability to analyze a model has improved. It's best to just not analyze the LR NAM, if we took that approach, you could have saved some face there. Short Pump jackpot. Expand it improved from 12z for MBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 8:51 PM, Warm Nose said: Expand You might have better odds playing Craps. At CharlesTown Races and Slots. They have ~500 foot elev AND very far north and west. I know. They tend to get snow many times when Dale City is a sullen gray depressing hard rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 8:18 PM, Chris78 said: On the Lwx forecast discussion they discussed better sampling later tonight as the second shortwave comes on shore on the west coast. Sounded like they expected more model agreement late tonight/ Tomorrow as the shortwaves are both over land. Kind of funny to read that. I thought that was an old weenie fable when things don't look great. Expand It’s not a fable. In fact, it’s idiotic to think that updated data won’t affect a model output. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 8:50 PM, notvirga! said: Aren’t we like 24 hours away from the nams even being remotely accurate? Expand 72 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 RGEM holds for I-81 and other favored spots but the RA/SN line jumped NW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 8:43 PM, LeesburgWx said: 18Z NAM even have any precip? These models are all over the place Expand Because they were created and are maintained to show examples rather than a statistically dominant outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 9:08 PM, NorthArlington101 said: RGEM holds for I-81 and other favored spots but the RA/SN line jumped NWYea it’s a toaster bath for dc-Philly etc. Think the inch less streak continues unfortunately. . 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 WB NAM v. Can. pretty stark differences, forget the rain/ snow line. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 Regional models are very difficult to initialize and obtain boundary conditions for. They shouldn't be looked at in a vacuum. They are best when used as an ensemble member. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 I "like" the RGEM take on things, probably a bit too wet but good representation of what we're thermally dealing with. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 In last 24-36 hours I’ve seen 0.5” for Kemp Mill and 11”. This is the mire of status quoof models. In 2024 it’s not good science and not good weather forecasting. It Is Excellent for discussing most every possible outcome during a two day time frame every six hours presentations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 9:23 PM, WEATHER53 said: In last 24-36 hours I’ve seen 0.5” for Kemp Mill and 11”. This is the mire of status quoof models. In 2024 it’s not good science and not good weather forecasting. It Is Excellent for discussing most every possible outcome during a two day time frame every six hours presentations Expand A model output isn't a forecast. It's a tool to be used to make a forecast. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 9:23 PM, WEATHER53 said: In last 24-36 hours I’ve seen 0.5” for Kemp Mill and 11”. This is the mire of status quo models. In 2024 it’s not good science and not good weather forecasting. It Is Excellent for discussing most every possible outcome during a two day time frame every six hours presentations Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 It is actually pretty sad that the models are so bad inside 3 days in 2024. Again, not talking about nailing rain/ snow line yet but the general intensity of the storm. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxtrix Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 i’ll enjoy these point and clicks while they last: Snow likely before 1pm, then snow, possibly mixed with rain. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 35. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Saturday Night Snow likely, mainly before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 70%. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 9:24 PM, psuhoffman said: A model output isn't a forecast. It's a tool to be used to make a forecast. Expand See that’s the evasive jibber jabber that helps models stay incompetent You are un successfully trying to parse that each 6 hour presentation is not indicative of upcoming weather but rather a “tool” Tool of what and for what? Why predicting forthcoming weather of course, see tool and Kaos get thrown around during deflections Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 9:07 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: It’s not a fable. In fact, it’s idiotic to think that updated data won’t affect a model output. Expand Obviously updated data helps accuracy. I didn't realize that over land vs over ocean makes that big of a difference with technology these days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 @WxUSAF @Terpeast I'm not too worried about the too amped or sheared out options. I think it will end up with the more favorable in between solution. But I am concerned the thermals might bleed the wrong way anyways and even with the more favorable track/intensity it just ends up too warm. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 9:26 PM, Weather Will said: It is actually pretty sad that the models are so bad inside 3 days in 2024. Again, not talking about nailing rain/ snow line yet but the general intensity of the storm. Expand Not that uncommon in certain synoptic setups. There is always uncertainty, thus why we rely on the ensembles to quantify it. The general idea for this event has been nailed for days. Emotional people who are rooting for a very specific outcome often complain that the models are 'bad'. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 The GEM's have been the most consistent models. Now they could be consistently wrong. But they have basically been rock solid on their depiction. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2024 Author Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 9:31 PM, psuhoffman said: @WxUSAF @Terpeast I'm not too worried about the too amped or sheared out options. I think it will end up with the more favorable in between solution. But I am concerned the thermals might bleed the wrong way anyways and even with the more favorable track/intensity it just ends up too warm. Expand Yeah quite possible. That said, if it’s borderline, still could work out. But the confluence and high shifting north don’t provide much confidence things can shift. Could also be a precip rate dependent deal. Heavier precip progs might be colder and vice versa. Things to watch. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 9:26 PM, Weather Will said: It is actually pretty sad that the models are so bad inside 3 days in 2024. Expand Please remember that when you incessantly post day 15 clown maps 3 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now