NorthArlington101 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Eps probably come in better worse on the fringes (metros). Better for favored zones and those who might get tempted to chase out that way 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, Heisy said: I mean it’s not as bad as the OP, but it certainly pushed everything NW . I can’t remember 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 also, fwiw, the 10th percentile on the EPS. you'd like to think this is the (10:1) floor w/ where things stand... but you never know. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Is this going to be another day (like yesterday) where 6z & 12z look blah and things trend better at 18z and 00z? Or is this the start of a sustained trend for the worse? 18z and especially 00z will be very telling. If they continue the negative trend, then many of us are in pretty rough shape - even up my way. If models bounce back in our direction, we’re still in the game. Guess the only “positive” thing here is that these differences are *relatively* small from run to run. We have been very much on the margins all along, so as PSU said, being a couple of degrees warmer on certain runs is the difference maker. Even the runs that looked good (0z gfs cmc Ukie and icon from last night) it was a pretty close call with a very sharp gradient. Showed 6-10” near Baltimore but just a couple inches along the bay. That’s a razor thin margin. The good news is that mountains don’t need to be moved to get us back in the game. We don’t need huge shifts. If models are underestimating cold or the strength of the low by just a bit, we are well within the margin to bounce back. The bad news is that we are starting to run out of time here. Can’t remember the last time models had a storm, lost it, and got it back within 72-84hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 It is better overall, maybe not if you are near the border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 A graphic from the most recent capital weather gang article, this thing isn't set in stone yet, but whether we trend better or worse who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 EPS 6z v 12z. mostly its tightening up the edges and pinning down where that band will be. Unfortunately 95 is right on the edge and might end up on the wrong side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 40 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I am supposed to be seeing Aaron Lewis at the Charles Town track on Saturday night. I was worried about it getting cancelled. Not so sure anymore. sucks man, looking like you are going to have to go 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I don’t know how to categorize it. There is no primary really. It’s nearly identical to the gfs. Better high heading in. More confluence. Same exact slp track. 1-2 mb deeper as it passes us. There is a bit more of that inverted feature. That seems to jump the thermals quick right over us. But maybe in the end it’s just a few degrees warmer and that makes a huge difference here. Yeah, that’s why I was cautiously optimistic as the run developed. Then it just pushes warm air north with that trough. Maybe it’s real, maybe a fluke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It is better overall, maybe not if you are near the border But that's like 80% of this sub lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 7 minutes ago, MacChump said: sucks man, looking like you are going to have to go Staind is my favorite band so I want to go. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Staind is my favorite band so I want to go. was just kidding, glad something good coming out of this for someone lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 But that's like 80% of this sub lol Just go with the snowiest model. Don’t complicate things 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Yeah, that’s why I was cautiously optimistic as the run developed. Then it just pushes warm air north with that trough. Maybe it’s real, maybe a fluke. It was kind of doing the same thing the last few runs too. The thing is, as it was coming in, even before that feature, I was noticing its simply warmer. I was toggling between different features. Better high, more confluence, low in the same location...then I would look at the different thermals and it was simply warmer than the GFS and GGEM. Yes that trough doesn't help but there is a hint at that same feature on the GFS also, the difference might just be the GFS is a few degrees colder heading in and so we barely survive it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 This is now within 72 hours, so maybe we start looking at the ops and mesos. Hope the mesos pick up on a colder bleed down that the globals might be missing. Wishful thinking maybe, but I've seen this movie before. 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 10 minutes ago, Terpeast said: This is now within 72 hours, so maybe we start looking at the ops and mesos. Hope the mesos pick up on a colder bleed down that the globals might be missing. Wishful thinking maybe, but I've seen this movie before. 18z NAM is running as we speak. Certainly it can’t be worse. Certainly. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: But that's like 80% of this sub lol My grading criteria was very specific 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Rayno 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Final update on the probability time series at DCA. As you know this doesn't mean that DCA has a 60% chances of an inch or more of snow; typically 1" from the model corresponds to a few tenths in ground truth under marginal conditions. The 3" probability curve may better represent the chances of an inch or more of snow. In answer to someone's question from yesterday, I only did this for a location near DCA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On the Lwx forecast discussion they discussed better sampling later tonight as the second shortwave comes on shore on the west coast. Sounded like they expected more model agreement late tonight/ Tomorrow as the shortwaves are both over land. Kind of funny to read that. I thought that was an old weenie fable when things don't look great. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Yeah, that’s why I was cautiously optimistic as the run developed. Then it just pushes warm air north with that trough. Maybe it’s real, maybe a fluke. Talk about a nailbiter. The smallest adjustments in LP track, LP strength, HP position / strength (confluence) drastically change our areas outcome from run to run. Models did a great job overall with the synoptic setup at range, but they are struggling with the minute details. Would be badass to score a coup within 72 hours but we may be a bit too early in this pattern. If we had this back and forth going on a week later, I’d def feel better about our chances. If 00z looks colder again tonight, this board is going to have some severe whiplash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On the Lwx forecast discussion they discussed better sampling later tonight as the second shortwave comes on shore on the west coast. Sounded like they expected more model agreement late tonight/ Tomorrow as the shortwaves are both over land. Kind of funny to read that. I thought that was an old weenie fable when things don't look great. Thought the better sampling aspect was a debunked theory… guess not. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, jayyy said: Thought the better sampling aspect was a debunked theory… guess not. . i think it's one of those things where it's better now than it used to be - but there are better sampling capabilities on land for sure. If that kind of thing didn't matter for forecasting still you wouldn't have RAOB balloon launches or anything, I'd imagine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Come on NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 CLASSIC surface level setup for an HECS on NAM. Got your three low pressure systems (triangle defense) chasing two weak highs off the continent 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: EPS 6z v 12z. mostly its tightening up the edges and pinning down where that band will be. Unfortunately 95 is right on the edge and might end up on the wrong side. It probably will. This is a N MoCo / Carroll and west event. Will probably even get tricky with RA/SN in the lower elevations the Monocacy River Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 18z NAM actually is better lol. Looks a bit colder - might be picking up on at least some light WAA snows as the system moves in too. Falls apart really fast. Mountains will hate it. But likely better for DC. "South and very weak" scenario. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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