January 6-7 Storm Discussion: we’re due?

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, Terpeast said:

When does it have precip starting? 

I’m still on 6z on TT 

Noonish in the metro

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

It’s only ever right when it’s by itself when it shows a bad solution. It doesn’t agree with the consensus of other models, but it isn’t what we wanted to see…

flips back to snow at the end but not nearly as good as other models - tough sledding in D.C (literally)

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Noonish in the metro

Sounds like it pulled option A 

[MN Transplant]

This is a bad run for 95 

[Heisy]

Ugly for I-95. Maybe we continue the trend of warm 12z runs cold 00z runs? We’re getting inside 4 days now though


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[clskinsfan]

Its like a 4 hour snow here.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Next 

Not so sure I think the evolution up top given what we had that first 60 or so hours is going to go that way. I didn’t hate how it started but then divergence from the other model camp came post h60. 

[Ji]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

When does it have precip starting? 

I’m still on 6z on TT 

seems okay to me

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, MN Transplant said:

This is a bad run for 95 

Not even worth chasing - lame outcome. to echo PSU

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Next 

 

[Heisy]

This is a bad run for 95 

It’s bad even for the immediate burbs of 95 and just about everyone


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[Heisy]

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[Buddy1987]

Kind of wishing for something at this point that doesn’t want to come to fruition. Congrats to people like @WxWatcher007 and @clskinsfan and folks up that way. @mappyyoull prolly end up good side of things too. 

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Next 

cool, see you in the next thread then. 

[Heisy]

ORH finds a way to jackpot, that’s cool.


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[MN Transplant]

925 temps at DCA at 00z:  +5 or +6

[Warm Nose]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Its like a 4 hour snow here.

You misspelled 'mix' 

[jayyy]

That is awesome.  This is a pretty good took that has the whole country if you want to waste a lot of time.  
https://en-us.topographic-map.com/map-hqf3/Baltimore/?center=39.43478%2C-77.33712&zoom=9

That’s a sweet tool for sure. Also, it’s in meters incase anyone overlooked that part. My old house in west EC was apparently around 320 feet elevation (higher than I thought tbh). My house in union bridge is at 469ft. Not too shabby.

Man. This is gonna be a nailbiter.


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[wtkidz]

20 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Some of us live there and don’t want anything to do with further south and east. Just sayin ..

I understand  and was just expressing my  thoughts.  

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, MN Transplant said:

925 temps at DCA at 00z:  +5 or +6

850s bad for almost everyone, surface toasty unless you are in the mountains or along I-95. Gets worse and worse the more you look at it.

[DDweatherman]

As long as it’s wrong, let’s not forget for folks even close in to 95, there are several models that do have a lot better outcome than the Euro. Small pieces of the puzzle in evolution will have big impacts. Little bit of a model war could be breaking out with how these pieces are handled. 

[WEATHER53]

3 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Nasty gradient... 10" in NW Arlington, 3" in SE. 

It's also still ripping at this point in DC.

I can’t say it’s never happened but Camp Springs getting 1” and Rockville 11” is a 50-1 shot 

[clskinsfan]

In all honesty it looks a lot like the NAM. Go figure.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

In all honesty it looks a lot like the NAM. Go figure.

The ole EE rule better not come to fruition. Let’s hope it’s as wrong as the NAM normally is at these lead times. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Bad run but it's not the least bit surprising, there is no cold air available so it makes sense that this is a situation for central PA and the catskills to jackpot in.  Saturday morning temps are gonna be like 30 degrees in Pittsburgh, if it's barely below freezing that far NW of here you know the depth of the cold isn't going to be sufficient for us. 

[MN Transplant]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

In all honesty it looks a lot like the NAM. Go figure.

The NAM is really dry and weak.  The Euro is 8mb deeper and wetter.

[Ji]

this isnt the old euro...usually when its by itself..it ends up migrating towards the other models. It may take some time to do it but thats what ive noticed recently

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

flips back to snow at the end but not nearly as good as other models - tough sledding in D.C (literally)

looking at the thermals I don't see how that is correct.  There are warm layers everywhere during the whole event.  I would be shocked IF the euro is right if anyone east of the BR got more than an inch or two at most.  

It's not all that dissimilar from the GGEM just warmer.  One reason its warmer is the coastal is way less of a defined feature initially until it gets to our latitude.  It's more just a wave along an inverted trough with a southerly flow up into our area at the mid levels. 

[CAPE]

Still considering a short chase to Gettysburg or Harpers Ferry area. Only if it's all snow and 5"+. Looks like a decent bet rn. Otherwise I'll just stay here and enjoy yet another heavy rain event lol.

[Ji]

when the euro was better....it had a much better surface low. The high dosent seem very different than 2 days ago

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

looking at the thermals I don't see how that is correct.  There are warm layers everywhere during the whole event.  I would be shocked IF the euro is right if anyone east of the BR got more than an inch or two at most.  

It's not all that dissimilar from the GGEM just warmer.  One reason its warmer is the coastal is way less of a defined feature initially until it gets to our latitude.  It's more just a wave along an inverted trough with a southerly flow up into our area at the mid levels. 

This is probably closer to what the outcome would be for that run. Norther + elevation ftw.