Kmlwx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Razor thin line for the fall line - but in this type of setup just have to accept it. Will be a nail biter for the folks riding that line - but suspect this is going to be a "classic" elevation winner storm of the past. I sure as heck won't jackpot in the eastern half of Montgomery County - but I'm okay with where I sit...for now. If it bleeds N/W again I'll be screwed. What a terrible hobby for us to all have 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Still in the game, but nailbitingly close. With it being so marginal, I'm mentally dividing 10:1 snow maps east of the blue ridge by half. (not that we should be looking at these snow maps anyway) Can't do much model analysis because I'm at work 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, clskinsfan said: GGEM is sub 1000 at the mouth of the bay. Its beautiful. Not for i95 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, clskinsfan said: GGEM is sub 1000 at the mouth of the bay. Its beautiful. 988 Cape May. We toss. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 10 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: GFS heavy snow through NOVA and central MD. Pummeled It all falls in like 8 hours. We better get those advertised rates. Given the marginal temps a thump scenario is our best simplest bet to get an area wide happy result. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I hope being near the highest point in DC helps with this one. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, Kmlwx said: Razor thin line for the fall line - but in this type of setup just have to accept it. Will be a nail biter for the folks riding that line - but suspect this is going to be a "classic" elevation winner storm of the past. I sure as heck won't jackpot in the eastern half of Montgomery County - but I'm okay with where I sit...for now. If it bleeds N/W again I'll be screwed. What a terrible hobby for us to all have think GAI and westward/northward has a decent shot of plowable snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Dear lord that’s a brutal gradient. Going to be riots if that plays out. Per the CMC on TT, it f'ing pours IMBY on Saturday evening at probably 34 degrees. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 CMC would be fantastic for the favored zones and would accumulate even where it's warm on the surface if it's dumping but it's a bad run for I-95 imo. Temps at height of the storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GFS is interesting. It has a stronger vortmax in the plains and so I thought if would maybe follow 6z euro. And it does end up a bit stronger/norther, but the WAA thump is legit. You don’t get soundings like this often from the GFS. This is legit heavy snow for a few hours Saturday afternoon. This is what I'd call a "High Chance of Disappointment" Profile. Even higher elevation won't save you from the mixed bag possibility. Go west young man! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 All the 12z guidance so far suggests the metro corridor and points N/W will really thump when the precipitation arrives. Your IMBY total will depend on ratios and how long you can hold the column. But if that GFS sounding is right, it’s puking fatties until the flip. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, mattie g said: Per the CMC on TT, it f'ing pours IMBY on Saturday evening at probably 34 degrees. 2” of rain just east of DC. I’m ignoring this one. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 For those of you that want to nailbite even more about elevation - this is the Maryland LiDAR viewer https://geodata.md.gov/topoviewer/ Cool tool if nothing else - REALLY high-res data there. I think @mappy might have been the one to post it a long while ago. For map geeks, can get lost for hours in just scrolling around. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 850 and 700 lows are N of 00z on cmc which is why 95 gets skunked a bit . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: 2” of rain just east of DC. I’m ignoring this one. Seems a *bit* overdone for such a fast mover, but man...being right on this R/S line is leaving me with few to no fingernails already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 5 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: I hope being near the highest point in DC helps with this one. On top of the monument? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 17 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: great run I don’t hate having the 8.9” value directly over my place. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: For those of you that want to nailbite even more about elevation - this is the Maryland LiDAR viewer https://geodata.md.gov/topoviewer/ Cool tool if nothing else - REALLY high-res data there. I think @mappy might have been the one to post it a long while ago. For map geeks, can get lost for hours in just scrolling around. Gonna use all of my 98 meters! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Ramjet Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 56 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: Curious what part of Western Loudoun are you in....is it for real Western Loudoun or Ji's version of Western Loudoun? If it's for real Western then i think your area is in a pretty good spot for this one especially Round Hill on West I'm between the hills (Harpers Ferry Road) about 3 miles south of Harpers Ferry. I have a long access road and about 150' higher than the road surface at 725'. It may be a sweet spot for this storm. I've had a couple inches on the ground before and drove through Hillsborough on the way to work with nothing on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Seems a *bit* overdone for such a fast mover, but man...being right on this R/S line is leaving me with few to no fingernails already.It’s dicey up here, too. I’m kinda surprised at the model snow output, all things considered…but I’ll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 anyone still have access or know where to get it for ice accumulations. A lot of models I’m seeing are showing an icy setup down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, 87storms said: It’s dicey up here, too. I’m kinda surprised at the model snow output, all things considered…but I’ll take it. Elevation will only help so much, eventually the warmer column will win. Front end thump is where it's at before we all dread the mix line on CC lol 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 27 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Its a 3-5/4-8 type thumper. We havent had one of those for a while. I am looking forward to it. This is very much what I’m leaning right now. I’m still curious to see the PBL on soundings when we get to Nam Nest and hi-res range. That’ll help out tremendously in the snowfall forecast. Edit: This is more for NW of the fall line with the best chance north of I-70 and west of US15. I’m leaning 1-2” in the district with a small incremental increase the further NW you go. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 The models have been consistent that this is a fall line storm. There will be a brutal cutoff and if I had to guess it’s going to be just west of 95- where it always is. Perhaps those of us down in the lowlands have a shot, but I’m prepared for disappointment and if you live where I live you should be too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 21 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: For those of you that want to nailbite even more about elevation - this is the Maryland LiDAR viewer https://geodata.md.gov/topoviewer/ Cool tool if nothing else - REALLY high-res data there. I think @mappy might have been the one to post it a long while ago. For map geeks, can get lost for hours in just scrolling around. I'm right at the base of the fall line in Adelphi. It could go either way for me. lol Thanks for sharing this tool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 6 minutes ago, mappy said: Elevation will only help so much, eventually the warmer column will win. Front end thump is where it's at before we all dread the mix line on CC lol lol, I wonder how much sleet is really gonna be at play with this one. Seems like mostly a rain or snow situation, but I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 23 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: For those of you that want to nailbite even more about elevation - this is the Maryland LiDAR viewer https://geodata.md.gov/topoviewer/ Cool tool if nothing else - REALLY high-res data there. I think @mappy might have been the one to post it a long while ago. For map geeks, can get lost for hours in just scrolling around. anyone have this tool for VA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I take back what I said about the GEFS. Mean initially looked better, but checking out the median reveals an outlier or two is tossing things up. Overall - GEFS throws out a weaker system. Looking at the ens is nearing (if not hit) it's expiration date anyway, but the >1" probs aren't exactly thrilling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said: anyone have this tool for VA? not as nice as MDs https://en-us.topographic-map.com/map-m4z4/Virginia/ 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hstorm Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said: anyone have this tool for VA? Don't know about VA generally, but here is the Fairfax County LiDAR site: https://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/maps/topographic-data 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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