Solution Man Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 19 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: That was a huge precip nothing 06z, wait till 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 What impresses me about the gfs is it’s rock steady consistency 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 Good morning all, glad we came back overnight. I agree with something @Deck Pic said a few pages ago. Those of us in the metro corridor I think should be rooting for a big WAA thump in the 20-0z time period Saturday I think. Pile up some mashed potatoes quick and then it’s already dark by the time it flips to rain. And it’s probably all over before midnight Sunday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Rough start this morning after last night's great runs. GFS is much faster and weaker. Also looks a tad warmer as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 32 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Rough start this morning after last night's great runs. GFS is much faster and weaker. Also looks a tad warmer as well. Well.. that was extremely disappointing to wake up to. Hopefully off run will come back at 12z. Don’t like the trend at all with weaker low exiting off the coast. GFS more like Euro this am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 9 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: Spot on as usual. You can also see the Monocacy Valley snow hole illustrated. It seems to rear it's ugly head when there isn't sustained cold air draining into Frederick City. I know that's been the perennial bane of @catoctin wx and @Mrs.J Bane is exactly the right word for setups where cold air is marginal. I can often see the snow a few miles from my house on top of Braddock Mtn but it's rain in the valley. Pretty cool to see it showing up in the models now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just not any consistency between modes yet. Euro hasn’t budged much since yesterday but even its snow jackpot changed. GFS jumpy as well with huge shift last night. It had support tho. models still trying to resolve western energy and confluence and until they do it’s gonna be a back and forth. Wxmeddler said it best with models trying to also put low pressures along the baroclinic zone in the ATL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 6z GEFS 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 WB 6Z EURO 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Weak sauce on EURO, biggest Lucy on this storm is not the rain/ snow line but the poor intensity forecast. I guess the flow is still too fast/ too many competing vortices, and not enough spacing between them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 How fitting for 0z to crush on all major models for 6z to be our good ole fashioned Charlie Brown and be warmer, dryer, and norther. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 5 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z EURO These 6z runs are way too drastic of a shift there's definitely something wonky or perhaps last night was the wonky but still...something smells 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Euro precip is fine it’s just way too warm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Here’s the 7z NBM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 That Euro run only goes to 0z right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Here’s the 7z NBMThis makes sense. Looks realistic and climo accurate . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: That Euro run only goes to 0z right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That Euro run only goes to 0z right? Correct. There should be more after hr90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, mappy said: Correct. There should be more after hr90 More rain per that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, TSSN+ said: More rain per that run I didn't specify more of what, just more. Not worrying about temps right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, mappy said: I didn't specify more of what, just more. Not worrying about temps right now. Neither am I. Models been back and forth. Hopefully the dust settles by tomorrow at the latest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 11 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Neither am I. Models been back and forth. Hopefully the dust settles by tomorrow at the latest. Easy for us to say, we are in a better spot than most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 18 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That Euro run only goes to 0z right? Correct. But the heaviest precipitation, what there is of it, is to our North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 6 minutes ago, mappy said: Easy for us to say, we are in a better spot than most. True but that comes with the territory 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Goodness, this thing has trended the wrong way. Has anyone ever seen a major storm consensus on all guidance at D5 degrade like this? I know they've busted at gametime, but to see this storm universally morph on guidance in the medium range like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Goodness, this thing has trended the wrong way. Has anyone ever seen a major storm consensus on all guidance at D5 degrade like this? I know they've busted at gametime, but to see this storm universally morph on guidance in the medium range like this? Hopefully the 6z euro is just off on a tangent. Even the weaker 6z gfs still has snow for western and Northern areas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 It would seem todays model runs are are the most important. Our storm and its associated energy hits the west coast today. Better sampling for the models (good or bad) is definitely forthcoming. If it looks terrible by tomorrow morning, then we can commence our ritualistic cliff diving party. For now, no model consistency = game still on until proven otherwise. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Hopefully the 6z euro is just off on a tangent. Even the weaker 6z gfs still has snow for western and Northern areas. It has snow, but a fraction of what we were looking at even yesterday. For days straight we were looking at 1.5" precip area-wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 7 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Hopefully the 6z euro is just off on a tangent. Even the weaker 6z gfs still has snow for western and Northern areas. Hopefully all 6z runs are off on a tangent. Maybe the mets did not put the data into the 6z runs and will feed the better data into 12z runs? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 The 6z runs would not have been so bad had it not been for what happened at 0z that got everyone encouraged again. What a rug pull. Was the 0z a blip or 6z? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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