winter_warlock Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 4:47 AM, NorthArlington101 said: Lot of variety. Very unsettled. Expand Qpf profiles will be more accurate as we get closer to the event, same with snow maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 why are operational models so much stronger than ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 4:47 AM, NorthArlington101 said: Lot of variety. Very unsettled. Much more weight on the OP at this range. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 4:48 AM, TSSN+ said: Uk cha Ching Expand That's a thumping too. All in less than 12 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 4:47 AM, nj2va said: Looking at the Pivotal maps, both 850 and 925 stays S/E of DC on the UKIE which is a massive improvement. Expand Yeah, big fold. R/S line moved like 50 miles Southeast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 A mauling incoming on mlk day as well. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 It seems that globals tonight at 00z must be getting some new data that they’ve all made this shift to a colder/snowier solution. Euro will be telling in an hour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 4:52 AM, nj2va said: It seems that globals tonight at 00z must be getting some new data that they’ve all made this shift to a colder/snowier solution. Euro will be telling in an hour. Expand Yeah i agree, kinda weird that all the modeling had the same exact shift ..had to be new data! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 4:53 AM, winter_warlock said: Yeah i agree, kinda weird that all the modeling had the same exact shift lol had to be new data! Expand Usually only the really good winters have these kinds of sudden shifts for the better in the medium range. I can't say if this storm or this winter will be the same but it sure as hell isn't last year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 3.5 days out. Hold onto similar to tonights runs till tomorrow night and lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 3:39 AM, nj2va said: ICON is a terrible model but I’d much rather see this to kick off 00z than the other way around. Just go with the snowiest model, common sense be damned. Expand If the Icon and NAM came out last instead of first no one would ever look at them. On 1/3/2024 at 4:07 AM, winter_warlock said: Hour 114 and. Still snow lingering!! Expand It’s trying to secondary in response to that second piece of NS energy catching up. On 1/3/2024 at 4:11 AM, MillvilleWx said: The 7H VV panels on the GFS are what @psuhoffman would take somewhere in privacy Expand Just got done 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 4:58 AM, Deck Pic said: Expand I’m glad I took this week off from work for an extra week of PTO. Giving me good practice for 1a Euro runs for our KU in 2 weeks. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 5:01 AM, TSSN+ said: 3.5 days out. Hold off similar to tonights runs till tomorrow night and lock it in. Expand By noon tomorrow gotta be 70% probability thst predicted outcome holds up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 3:59 AM, Deck Pic said: wow..moved further south... Expand I think we are non panicked now but I’m older lately and back and forth gets me dizzy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 4:24 AM, Deck Pic said: Canadian is really wet. 10-18" N and W of cities Expand In all honesty, Canadian first one to show this and I liked it. Next I hope we get hours of great obs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 No EURO or EPS for most recent data obv, but tonight looks like a hell of a reversal so far. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 Ukie says game on too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 5:17 AM, jayyy said: Ukie says game on too Expand Yup already posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 5:11 AM, WEATHER53 said: I think we are non panicked now but I’m older lately and back and forth gets me dizzy. Expand Everyone in here panics way to much. I haven’t panicked once. Especially for a storm that was 3+ days out. There’s going to be shifts we all should know that by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 5:19 AM, TSSN+ said: Yup already posted Shit. Apologies, the posts pile up quickly in here when things look good. Didn’t see it above. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 5:21 AM, nj2va said: Didn’t you already cancel winter? Expand Yup winter is canceled. Super winter is here. But seriously per this storm I haven’t said much crying about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 4:50 AM, Chris78 said: That's a thumping too. All in less than 12 hoursFeeling a lot better about the prediction I made earlier today fa sho Let’s get it done! Sub 60 hours from watches being hoisted!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keviepoo Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 https://www.facebook.com/groups/stormteamloco/ is following this like a hawk. Storm Team LOCO... Wishcasting you can trust! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 5:38 AM, Deck Pic said: do you guys know jays wintry mix? They're another storm team operating in the greater leesburg region Expand I'm not sure if this is sarcasm, but in case it's not...I'll give you a hint: we are all familiar with Jay, lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 5:10 AM, Deck Pic said: I think even for you guys, the timing of this is important. We really want as much of main slug of moisture to fall after 4-5pm as possible. The GFS has a potentially nice deform band after sundown that could clobber someone. I really don't want the height of the storm to be at like 1 pm. Expand What time onset? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keviepoo Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 5:38 AM, Deck Pic said: do you guys know jays wintry mix? They're another storm team operating in the greater leesburg region Expand Jay is a legit amateur Met in Leesburg... Storm Team LOCO is strictly pajamas inside out, ice cubes into the toilet kind of prognosticating... we have two tag lines... "Wishcasting you can trust" and "all the hype and none of the accuracy". 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 Model trend momentum is accelerating toward some extreme snowmap colorsModels were accelerating in another direction earlier today. But - as we all learned in meteorology class - model trend momentum is moving toward snow now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 A detailed play by play of the euro is appreciated here!. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 I’m up but the SV peeps will be 5 mins ahead of me. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted January 3, 2024 Share Posted January 3, 2024 On 1/3/2024 at 5:59 AM, psuhoffman said: I’m up but the SV peeps will be 5 mins ahead of me. Expand If sheer willpower was an applicable variable we'd skip over HECS and go straight for a BECS on this one. The forum needs it in the worse way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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