SnowDreamer Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 UKIE is a hit 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: GEFS - less heavy for the western folks, but massive cushion. Probabilities appear down significantly. QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Looking at the Pivotal maps, both 850 and 925 stays S/E of DC on the UKIE which is a massive improvement. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Probabilities appear down significantly. QPF?Lot of variety. Very unsettled. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Uk cha Ching 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxtrix Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 40 minutes ago, nj2va said: 12" ribbon in my back yard. it's nice to dream about. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Lot of variety. Very unsettled. Qpf profiles will be more accurate as we get closer to the event, same with snow maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 why are operational models so much stronger than ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Lot of variety. Very unsettled. Much more weight on the OP at this range. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, TSSN+ said: Uk cha Ching That's a thumping too. All in less than 12 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, nj2va said: Looking at the Pivotal maps, both 850 and 925 stays S/E of DC on the UKIE which is a massive improvement. Yeah, big fold. R/S line moved like 50 miles Southeast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 A mauling incoming on mlk day as well. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 It seems that globals tonight at 00z must be getting some new data that they’ve all made this shift to a colder/snowier solution. Euro will be telling in an hour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 6 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: Probabilities appear down significantly. QPF? at this point I'd probably only use ensemble means for track of the low relative to prior. Don't worry about any details. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: It seems that globals tonight at 00z must be getting some new data that they’ve all made this shift to a colder/snowier solution. Euro will be telling in an hour. Yeah i agree, kinda weird that all the modeling had the same exact shift ..had to be new data! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Yeah i agree, kinda weird that all the modeling had the same exact shift lol had to be new data! Usually only the really good winters have these kinds of sudden shifts for the better in the medium range. I can't say if this storm or this winter will be the same but it sure as hell isn't last year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, nj2va said: It seems that globals tonight at 00z must be getting some new data that they’ve all made this shift to a colder/snowier solution. Euro will be telling in an hour. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3.5 days out. Hold onto similar to tonights runs till tomorrow night and lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 hour ago, nj2va said: ICON is a terrible model but I’d much rather see this to kick off 00z than the other way around. Just go with the snowiest model, common sense be damned. If the Icon and NAM came out last instead of first no one would ever look at them. 53 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Hour 114 and. Still snow lingering!! It’s trying to secondary in response to that second piece of NS energy catching up. 49 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: The 7H VV panels on the GFS are what @psuhoffman would take somewhere in privacy Just got done 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: I’m glad I took this week off from work for an extra week of PTO. Giving me good practice for 1a Euro runs for our KU in 2 weeks. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: 3.5 days out. Hold off similar to tonights runs till tomorrow night and lock it in. By noon tomorrow gotta be 70% probability thst predicted outcome holds up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: 3.5 days out. Hold onto similar to tonights runs till tomorrow night and lock it in. I think even for you guys, the timing of this is important. We really want as much of main slug of moisture to fall after 4-5pm as possible. The GFS has a potentially nice deform band after sundown that could clobber someone. I really don't want the height of the storm to be at like 1 pm. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 hour ago, Deck Pic said: wow..moved further south... I think we are non panicked now but I’m older lately and back and forth gets me dizzy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 48 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Canadian is really wet. 10-18" N and W of cities In all honesty, Canadian first one to show this and I liked it. Next I hope we get hours of great obs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: I think we are non panicked now but I’m older lately and back and forth gets me dizzy. no...very much panicked. We don't live in the Sierra. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 No EURO or EPS for most recent data obv, but tonight looks like a hell of a reversal so far. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Ukie says game on too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, jayyy said: Ukie says game on too Yup already posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 7 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: I think we are non panicked now but I’m older lately and back and forth gets me dizzy. Everyone in here panics way to much. I haven’t panicked once. Especially for a storm that was 3+ days out. There’s going to be shifts we all should know that by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Yup already posted Shit. Apologies, the posts pile up quickly in here when things look good. Didn’t see it above. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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