January 6-7 Storm Discussion: we’re due?

[WxUSAF]

I’ll fall on the sword when guidance unanimously goes to Cleveland at 12z.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

So whats the best case scenario in the immediate metro? It looks like temps never get below 34-35 on most guidance in the cities.  Paste bomb?

[WxUSAF]

P.s. banter-type posts will get hidden with more regularity here

[snowfan]

We all know the drill. Know your local snow climo to avoid heartbreak. WPC probs below for > .25” frozen equivalent.
 

[H2O]

Until the GFS sorts out its inland low to coastal setup, the concern over temps for I95 E will remain for the next few days. Euro would be great but expect even it to move the 850 0C line a lot. 
 

Hope us lowlanders can get a decent snow out of this. 

[Heisy]

End of 6z euro vs 00z.

Higher heights out in front because of the confluence ticking N, probably would have seen it bump N a little bit




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[WinterWxLuvr]

11 minutes ago, Heisy said:

End of 6z euro vs 00z.

Higher heights out in front because of the confluence ticking N, probably would have seen it bump N a little bit




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Heights in the MA are actually lower. Trough is sharper though so not totally disagreeing but those lower heights here could keep it in about the same place.

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[psuhoffman]

30 minutes ago, Heisy said:

End of 6z euro vs 00z.

Higher heights out in front because of the confluence ticking N, probably would have seen it bump N a little bit




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SW is a little more progressive and less amplified.  Also a little colder over the top despite the true arctic boundary retreating a bit.  Might be a wash. 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[WxUSAF]

Even if this storm “fails” from a snow perspective in the cities, this is just a remarkable modeling success from literally 13-15 days lead time. We picked up this time period as soon as it was in ensemble range.

[DDweatherman]

6z EPS images anyone? mobile at the moment

[psuhoffman]

EPS is awful. Warmest run in 3 days 

[Eskimo Joe]

3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

6z EPS images anyone? mobile at the moment

06z EPS doesn't go past 90 hrs, IIRC. Here's the 00z EPS for you:

 

 

[Kmlwx]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

06z EPS doesn't go past 90 hrs. Here's the 00z EPS for you:

 

 

I thought the OP went to 90 but the EPS went out farther at the off-hour runs. Maybe I'm wrong!

[Heisy]

EPS is awful. Warmest run in 3 days 

Yep, I could see that coming after the OP. Only using the control because it tends to just follow OP at this range. The H5 almost looks identical to last nights CMC. I really really hope this was just a blip run. I really wanted to discount cmc and Ukie, but hard to now…


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[Heisy]

06z EPS doesn't go past 90 hrs, IIRC. Here's the 00z EPS for you:
 
 

6z EPS does go to 144 hours, it’s the OP that only goes to 90.


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[Heisy]

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[Eskimo Joe]

4 minutes ago, Heisy said:

6z EPS does go to 144 hours, it’s the OP that only goes to 90.

Ah thanks for the clarification.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

5 minutes ago, Heisy said:

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This would be a great start to the season.  2-5 inches in the metro would be fantastic. 

[Chris78]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

EPS is awful. Warmest run in 3 days 

Is the storm track further west?

The placement of the snow on the mean doesn't look much different than 00z. Just overall less snow. 

[psuhoffman]

I was looking at the control which is worse so op would probably have been a bad run. EPS is warmer too but not as much. Bad run. 
control 

eps

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Is the storm track further west?

The placement of the snow on the mean doesn't look much different than 00z. Just overall less snow. 

I can’t dig too deep, work. But the track is identical. The mean is weaker also. It’s just warmer. Less confluence and high slides east. That is the most important thing unfortunately. 

[jayyy]

Looks like a 20 mile shift N for the 0c line. Let’s just hope it’s a wobble and not the start of a trend, especially for I-95 on east. Feel pretty good about this setup for our neck of the woods PSU

[Chris78]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

I can’t dig too deep, work. But the track is identical. The mean is weaker also. It’s just warmer. Less confluence and high slides east. That is the most important thing unfortunately. 

Thanks.  Hopefully it's just a blip. 

The control was a big jump for just 1 run.

[Terpeast]

Can’t remember which model, but I picked up on weaker confluence last night. Euro 6z seems to be continuing that trend, while gfs is doing the opposite. 

We’ll have to see who is right about the confluence up north. 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Can’t remember which model, but I picked up on weaker confluence last night. Euro 6z seems to be continuing that trend, while gfs is doing the opposite. 

We’ll have to see who is right about the confluence up north. 

They switched positions 

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

They switched positions 

Or maybe its just a bad off run. Didn’t 0z euro trend better for i-95?

[WinterWxLuvr]

This is right about the time, even in our best historic storms, that you start to see some solutions that aren’t favorable. The big storms of course correct back to the good solutions. 

[dallen7908]

For DCA, the percent of 06 UTC EPS members giving DCA 1, 3, 6, and 12 inches of snow in the next 144 hours was 56, 30, 18, and 4%.  The percentages for the 00 UTC run were 84, 60, 30, and 6.