WxUSAF Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 I’ll fall on the sword when guidance unanimously goes to Cleveland at 12z. 1 4 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 So whats the best case scenario in the immediate metro? It looks like temps never get below 34-35 on most guidance in the cities. Paste bomb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 P.s. banter-type posts will get hidden with more regularity here 8 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 We all know the drill. Know your local snow climo to avoid heartbreak. WPC probs below for > .25” frozen equivalent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Until the GFS sorts out its inland low to coastal setup, the concern over temps for I95 E will remain for the next few days. Euro would be great but expect even it to move the 850 0C line a lot. Hope us lowlanders can get a decent snow out of this. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 End of 6z euro vs 00z. Higher heights out in front because of the confluence ticking N, probably would have seen it bump N a little bit . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 11 minutes ago, Heisy said: End of 6z euro vs 00z. Higher heights out in front because of the confluence ticking N, probably would have seen it bump N a little bit . Heights in the MA are actually lower. Trough is sharper though so not totally disagreeing but those lower heights here could keep it in about the same place. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 30 minutes ago, Heisy said: End of 6z euro vs 00z. Higher heights out in front because of the confluence ticking N, probably would have seen it bump N a little bit . SW is a little more progressive and less amplified. Also a little colder over the top despite the true arctic boundary retreating a bit. Might be a wash. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 Even if this storm “fails” from a snow perspective in the cities, this is just a remarkable modeling success from literally 13-15 days lead time. We picked up this time period as soon as it was in ensemble range. 29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 6z EPS images anyone? mobile at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 EPS is awful. Warmest run in 3 days 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: 6z EPS images anyone? mobile at the moment 06z EPS doesn't go past 90 hrs, IIRC. Here's the 00z EPS for you: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: 06z EPS doesn't go past 90 hrs. Here's the 00z EPS for you: I thought the OP went to 90 but the EPS went out farther at the off-hour runs. Maybe I'm wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 EPS is awful. Warmest run in 3 days Yep, I could see that coming after the OP. Only using the control because it tends to just follow OP at this range. The H5 almost looks identical to last nights CMC. I really really hope this was just a blip run. I really wanted to discount cmc and Ukie, but hard to now… . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 06z EPS doesn't go past 90 hrs, IIRC. Here's the 00z EPS for you: 6z EPS does go to 144 hours, it’s the OP that only goes to 90. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 4 minutes ago, Heisy said: 6z EPS does go to 144 hours, it’s the OP that only goes to 90. Ah thanks for the clarification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 5 minutes ago, Heisy said: . This would be a great start to the season. 2-5 inches in the metro would be fantastic. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: EPS is awful. Warmest run in 3 days Is the storm track further west? The placement of the snow on the mean doesn't look much different than 00z. Just overall less snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 I was looking at the control which is worse so op would probably have been a bad run. EPS is warmer too but not as much. Bad run. control eps 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 10 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Is the storm track further west? The placement of the snow on the mean doesn't look much different than 00z. Just overall less snow. I can’t dig too deep, work. But the track is identical. The mean is weaker also. It’s just warmer. Less confluence and high slides east. That is the most important thing unfortunately. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Looks like a 20 mile shift N for the 0c line. Let’s just hope it’s a wobble and not the start of a trend, especially for I-95 on east. Feel pretty good about this setup for our neck of the woods PSU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, psuhoffman said: I can’t dig too deep, work. But the track is identical. The mean is weaker also. It’s just warmer. Less confluence and high slides east. That is the most important thing unfortunately. Thanks. Hopefully it's just a blip. The control was a big jump for just 1 run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Can’t remember which model, but I picked up on weaker confluence last night. Euro 6z seems to be continuing that trend, while gfs is doing the opposite. We’ll have to see who is right about the confluence up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Can’t remember which model, but I picked up on weaker confluence last night. Euro 6z seems to be continuing that trend, while gfs is doing the opposite. We’ll have to see who is right about the confluence up north. They switched positions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: They switched positions Or maybe its just a bad off run. Didn’t 0z euro trend better for i-95? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 This is right about the time, even in our best historic storms, that you start to see some solutions that aren’t favorable. The big storms of course correct back to the good solutions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 For DCA, the percent of 06 UTC EPS members giving DCA 1, 3, 6, and 12 inches of snow in the next 144 hours was 56, 30, 18, and 4%. The percentages for the 00 UTC run were 84, 60, 30, and 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now