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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024


buckeyefan1
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Overall a great look at this lead time. I'd take my chances that the stout 50/50 along with the arctic highs coming down would force that track a little further south. Regardless meaningless details at this point. Takeaway is pattern is there to support a miller A system.

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Just now, SnowDawg said:

Holy smokes Euro.... Just an absolute perfect system. If only that was under 5 days.... This whole board deserves to end this drought on a storm like that. 

What are you talking about? Maybe I'm behind but the storm the GFS is showing as possible snow in northern NC/VA looks like this on the Euro 

prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.conus (5).png

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3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

The BIG ones are sniffed out early. Hopefully this will be the one... The coming days will tell. 

At least with this one unlike most, the ensembles started barking first. Never any guarantees and I'm sure we'll see some back and forth, but this is as good a signal as we've seen in a very long time. Nice to at least have something worth talking about. 

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 The last 2 EPS runs have each had 15 (30%) of its members with at least a T of wintry precip here, something we haven’t had in 7 years (longest drought at least since 1880s). The 0Z EPS mean has us way up at 0.6” from those 15 members! That means that run’s mean is at 3 times our average annual snow in just the next 2 weeks. I haven’t seen model predictions like this since the big 1/3/18 coastal winter storm. The next run probably won’t have as much. So enjoy it while it is there.

 IMG_1301.thumb.png.ee2d73dcf20f289ebe71f005ed493046.png

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