Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024

[wncsnow]

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

That’s about the most sustained cold I’ve ever seen modeled on the GEFS. Source region just reloads and keeps sending it. I’ve been a 3/4 glass empty person and will continue to be until it snows again but that’s a fricking lot of cold modeled on the ensembles 

It is but they are mostly dry. It could be too much of a good thing or it could be like the Euro op. 

[BooneWX]

Euro Ens mean for the trough at 12z is right where we want it, centered over the Ohio Valley. If we can keep it there, we will have our shots.

[lilj4425]

6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Wash, rinse, repeat 

No lie there. I feel like some people are grasping at straws here. People posting one run of one model that shows snow two weeks out is silly. 

[Upstate Tiger]

8 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

No lie there. I feel like some people are grasping at straws here. People posting one run of one model that shows snow two weeks out is silly. 

[BooneWX]

I’m going to keep grasping at straws. Snow is my favorite weather type and I’m going to show every weenie run those glorious models produce. We’ll return to regularly scheduled severe weather, 70 dew point programming in Feb/March.

[SnowDawg]

That was one of the best runs of the ensembles we've seen yet. Lots of small improvements at H5 which unsurprisingly led to a nice bump in snow means. 

[GaWx]

 All 3 12Z ensemble means are very cold in the SE late. It’s almost a certainty that an overall cold first half of Jan is on the way for the SE with the coldest first half by far since 2018 (all others since NN to AN). It will very likely end up colder in the SE overall than 2014 and 2015, which weren’t that cold in the deep SE. So, it looks likely that the first halves of Jan in 2011, 2018, and 2025 will be the coldest 3 of the last 15 for the SE overall, all 3 being La Niña. Both 2011 and 2018 had one major winter storm in the first half of Jan affecting parts of the SE:

-1/9-10/11 was big in much of the well inland SE including Atlanta, where it had a very large impact and lead to closings much of that week

-1/3/18 historic SE coastal winter storm

 A notable winter event or two is likely in the first half of Jan 2025. How notable and where nobody knows.

[GaWx]

 A quick look at all 3 12Z ensemble run members continues to show a decent % with wintry precip (flurries/T or more) in FL. I counted on the EPS 15 of 50 (30%) in FL! On the relatively conservative EPS this far out (7 days+) that is very notable and gets me excited for a shot at least flurries here. Haven’t had even a T of any kind of wintry here in 7 years.

[BornAgain13]

This pattern coming up looks awesome! The single deterministic models are back and forth but the ensembles , which is what we should look at at this range look amazing.... Carry on 

[GaWx]

 New Euro Weekly 2m temps for Jan 6-12 (see image below) is by a good margin the coldest yet and is the coldest Euro Weeklies map covering a 7 day period and still over a week out I can ever recall seeing for the SE: the 3rd shading of blue is 3-6 C/5.4-10.8F BN, which covers everywhere in and near the SE including 200-250 miles offshore along the SE coast. The bulk of the SE is 7-9 BN! There’s even a tiny spot of 3rd shade in Cuba (~5.5 F BN)! That’s very hard to accomplish.
 
 The coldest is in W VA, where for the first time a tiny bit of the 4th shade is showing (~11F BN)!

 This map is easily the coldest on the entire globe for that week and beyond. Also, the subsequent week is cold.

 

1/6-12 Precip map is wettest for that period, yet (NN to AN everywhere)! It shows Miller A potential. That equates to ~1-1.25” in most areas, a lot of qpf for such a cold period since they’re often dry:

[olafminesaw]

Some good hits in there

[BooneWX]

8 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Some good hits in there

I’ll take panel 38 or 40 and log out until Dec 2025

[GaWx]

On 12/20/2024 at 3:48 PM, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Jumpin January 

 The above posted NOAA weekly week 3/4 outlook had been until today the coldest week 3/4 outlook on record (back to 2015) for the SE in Jan. Now it has been replaced by today’s as it actually has a stronger signal in FL, much of GA, SC, NC, and VA as those areas are all further into the 3rd shading:

 

Precip signal is neutral to weak wet in all of SE (nearly 2” or more qpf) which would be quite wet compared to most very cold periods:

[EarlGrey]

Looks like this Sunday has severe weather, from WRAL. If you then use the old wives rule it’ll be a week or two after this when it could snow. 
 

 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Dr Jonathan Wall: Potential ~1/6-8 trending better, but no discrete storm potential yet. This gif shows the 4 run trend of the EPS centered on 1/8. Trough moving SW, blocking over Greenland trending west. West coast ridging stronger. 33° highs at RDU on the EPS. Are you ready? ⛄️

Btw, that 24-hr snow chart is typical of DC/DelMarVa/NYC this time of year. Not RDU. Liking our chances here more than usual.

 

[BooneWX]

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1872793416394031246?s=46

[olafminesaw]

It's like one long continuous window of opportunity, which is always good, because we will fail more than win, so the more opportunities the better 

[NC_hailstorm]

Tonight's Euro run might beat anything I've ever seen,492 polar vortex into N.Carolina good grief.That's a high in the single digits?

Might save that one.

[SnowDawg]

30 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Tonight's Euro run might beat anything I've ever seen,492 polar vortex into N.Carolina good grief.That's a high in the single digits?

Might save that one.

Insane run. Snow on the ground and temps below zero for nearly 40 hours throughout TN, North GA, and W NC. I want snow as much as anybody, but that we can leave out in fantasy land where it belongs. 

[NC_hailstorm]

Crazy

 

[JoshM]

1 hour ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Crazy

 

 

Now that's some pipe busting weather!

Oh, and it has 20mph+ wind gusts as well (50mph+ in mountains)

[GaWx]

The 0Z EPS has a whopping 21 (42%) of members with a T+ of wintry precip in FL! The entire SE is covered with about the highest  mean yet:

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Mike Thomas Fox 5 DC: 

It’s (ECMWF) so cold it has subzero temps in Atlanta (January 11). That has not happened since the aforementioned 1985 January Arctic air outbreak. 

Again not sure we’re at this extreme yet but it’s something to see typically warm-biased model bringing down this level of cold!

 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[NorthHillsWx]

06z GFS delivers again on the 8th